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Rochester, MN

Adapt Today for Tomorrow Success!

Many businesses that have been around for years have a large customer or client base. This allows many of them to get by without delving into Internet marketing campaigns or print marketing. These businesses benefit from their long-term reputations. But things are changing. Consumer behavior is changing, and this impacts both the business environment, and how businesses will need to adapt to be successful in the coming years. https://www.proweb 365.com/minneapoli s-seo-company The economic crash of 2008 still has consumers worried about their financial security, and today they’re paying more attention to their spending than they did pre-2008. Internet search engines like Google, Yahoo, and Bing make it easier for consumers to compare prices and deals; and they are taking advantage of these tools to save money and get the most bang for their buck. In addition, mobile devices and free, widespread public Wifi Internet access have put consumers just clicks away from finding the best prices for the products and services they want. From the birth of Apple’s iPad to the growing demand for smart-pads, companies are moving quicker to meet consumer demands. Recognizing that smart-pads are the tools consumers use the most (in the hand-held mobile device family) to access the web, Google recently tapped into the smart-pad market with its Nexus tablet product. Observing the economy, consumer behaviors, and technology trends in the last decade, you will see these are the three key contributors in today’s changing business environment. Consumers today are so comfortable with the Internet, particularly working professionals and the younger generations, that the majority of their socializing time happens online; through email, text, gaming, Internet free chat, social media, etc. This means businesses that have previously been able to ride the coat tails of their past success will need to become more innovative in their marketing to adapt to the changing ways people choose what to buy. If they don’t adapt in our changing environment, they’ll lose their edge to competitors that do. Information travels faster than ever before, on the Internet and over the phone. New marketing tools such as website, spiral marketing, email marketing, text marketing, Google ads, banner ads, etc. are some of the most powerful tools to help businesses build an effective brand image and reputation, in a short period of time. Not long ago a business’ reputation may have taken a decade to build; now it may take only a few years. A real-life example of this is Yellow Book vs. Google. Early in this article I mentioned how long-term businesses have historically been able to rely on their past success and reputation. But today even successful businesses should continue to build on their existing reputations in our fast changing environment. A good perception in the past needs to continue to be communicated in new ways, because a majority of current and potential consumers today are using different ways to learn about your products and services. The question is not, “should these businesses enter online marketing?” The question is, “how soon and how well will they prepare and position themselves against their competition, before it is too late?” All that said, here is my advice for businesses today. 1) Research your direct and/or new entry competitors to see what they are doing regarding Internet marketing. If they are not yet tapped into online marketing, that is great news for you. It will cost you less to rank your business website in the top 10 on search engines, locally and organically. read more: http://www.proweb3 65.com/adapt-today -for-tomorrow-succ ess ---- ProWeb365: Minneapolis Internet Marketing Services, MN. We can transform your business vision into an effective online marketing website. Contact our Minneapolis SEO Company today. For web design quotes, please visit: https://www.proweb 365.com/services  (Oct 15, 2012 | post #1)

Day Trading

The Grains Review For the Week of April 23, 2012

Coming back from the weekend markets have a calmer opening as compared with Friday’s explosion to the upside in beans. The explosion, as I put out on Twitter, was completely based on rumors of fresh Chinese demand for beans off the PNW. Though we have seen only partial confirmation this morning, basis does support the talk with the western half of the US higher than we were on Friday morning. Corn and wheat lost dramatically to beans due to a lack of fresh demand rumors or any food for the bull in those commodities. Spreads were supported in beans while bearish in wheat and corn. All spreads are active but let’s focus on CU-Z. This spread has recently collapsed from 37.5 inverse to a 7.5 inverse. Full carry for this spread is around 16-cents offering another 20-cents or so movement to the bear side. Traders need to consider that all the early planted corn will be delivered against the Sep contract. Informa made this known on Friday stating 1 billion bushels of corn will be deliverable; I feel this is dramatically understating the issue. If 60% of IL and 50% of MO are both planted and emerged by May 1st, using a 110 day growing cycle, the dry down date is give or take August 18th. This is not even considering TN, KY, KS, OK, TX and all the other southern states with corn acreage. Simply put, I think the trend is your friend here and the bear side should win this week. On the flip side of the subdued corn bullishness is the amazingly long position in meal offering downside momentum. As expected, SMK-N went out past $4.00 then traded back under overnight on more money flow issues. Meal is not a bull. It is simply benefiting from the strength in beans which is in turn slowing crush. Meal demand should slacken off as other competing proteins move into rations. $400.00 meal makes many feeders balk at buying especially with massive inverses and a record long fund position. All that being said, meal will have a hard time falling until beans stall. Meal is a child of beans so look for extra weakness in meal if and when beans finally break which I’m sure they will do in the next 60-days. It’s not a revelation that I am bearish beans at current levels but the market is simply overextended. Positions wise, ratio wise and acreage wise, beans and meal are not in the right place. This is not to say the rally will not continue. Positioning against a money flow rally has hurt myself and many others. If you want to get bearish either, look at buying extremely cheap skewed puts establishing your risk. Looking to today, beans are modestly bearish with spreads backing up the weaker tone. Corn and wheat are modestly bullish with spreads supporting that tone. KWN looks to gain a bit of recently lost ground to CHI with the spread sitting at a shockingly tight 14-cents. Minny will lag behind both as spring plantings roll along. Meal will be the weakest commodity on the floor while bean oil tries to hold ground in oilshare. Look for a relatively quiet session to start with the downside the path of least resistance even for corn. Crude is lower and the USD is higher which supports a bearish stance for the day. Watch spreads for best action and momentum with CU-Z sure to give up more by day’s end and even more by week’s end. _____________ Matthew Pierce www.grainanalyst.c om Disclaimer: Trading in futures and options involves a substantial degree of a risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results.  (Apr 23, 2012 | post #1)

Day Trading

The Grains Review For the Week of April 16, 2012

Coming back from the weekend I see negative macro factors adding momentum to bearish weekend weather. The trade is fading due to good weekend rains in MN, IA and throughout the Midwest and a lack of fresh demand from China or anyone else for that matter. Weak crude markets and a strong USD make many weak longs sweat to start the week. It’s a rather slow news day and week ahead with Chinese weather, Saudi claims to lower oil prices and Spanish bond sales biggest international factors. Domestically traders have new home starts on Weds, NOPA today and crop progress to set the early tone. Early talk has corn 25-30% planted versus 7% on average. This quick pace should stall this week due to the recent excessive rains in areas but this is not a bullish factor. We are well ahead of pace and will still effectively have the corn crop in the ground by May 1st. Domestic weather is wet across much of the Midwest with a minor, and I mean minor frost threat in the OH river tonight and tomorrow night. From a trading perspective, the trade looks and feels very tired. There is no food for bulls but spreads still offer a minor bullish impact. With all the recent rains, new crop corn should feel more pressure than old crop after the recent fall in CN-Z. The 80-cent level held offering reversal momentum but this is dependent on continued demand. With the roll period officially over there is no real movement expected from the money flow side midmonth. As discussed on the 2012 Grain Forecast report out last week, another opportunity is in beans. Looking to today, it’s another downside day with a possible flush out in corn and beans due to negative technicals. CK traded back under the 100-day MA on Friday with only the range low at $6.00 offering any support. Beans appear toppy but as we have seen, this market does not want to give up. The 200K long will be watching closely looking to exit at the first sign of overt weakness. SK-N sits at 3.5 to the carry starting the week with this a major indicator of front end weakness. I expect this to widen all week with a possible close on Friday closer to 8-cents. Wheat may try to show relative strength versus corn and beans due to the 88K fund short and relationship values. The tone for the week is lower and should remain so as long as weather doesn’t turn too cold and the Saudi’s are really going to increase production. The world feels a bit overbought with macros, weather and weak demand all helping bear rule for a while. _____________ Matthew Pierce www.grainanalyst.c om Disclaimer: Trading in futures and options involves a substantial degree of a risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results.  (Apr 16, 2012 | post #1)

Day Trading

The Grains Review For the Week of April 9, 2012

Thursday saw another round of excited buying in corn and beans with wheat actually not losing ground. Old/New bean spreads exploded, corn spreads folded and front end meal spreads bent bearish. It was another messy session with a strong upside bias noted. The bean strength comes from Chinese markets more than fresh demand. Export sales were solid but so is the planting start here in the US. The delta is basically done, IL corn could be 30% this week and MO is looking unstoppable. Dryness in the northern plains is the only new crop issue of note. What is more important right now is tomorrow’s WASDE report. Two key factors to look at. old crop stocks in corn and beans and South American production. Old crop stocks are expected to drop but traders expected that last year as well. Corn old crop stocks average guess 721 million. March estimate 801 million Bean old crop stocks average guess 246 million. March estimate 275 million Wheat is expected to drop but only marginally on higher exports. The average guess is 792 million versus 825 in March. World ending stocks are expected lower across the board with wheat down 1 MMT, with corn and beans down 2 MMT. The drop in corn and beans are due to expected drops in Argentine corn and Argentine beans and Brazilian beans. This report has the opportunity to set the market afire or really squash bull spread hopes. If the USDA is conservative and leaves old crop corn stocks unchanged old new spreads will likely collapse as length looks to exit. The USDA is not here to scare anyone and spreads are already showing weakness. CN-Z closed at 102 on Friday showing weakness in spite of old new bean spread strength. This is obviously not an across the board money move. Instead this may be a profit taking move. Hard to argue with old crop bean stocks lower right now due to Chinese demand but this would be an aggressive move with only the trend exploding, not the real numbers. We are at or just above last year’s bean export pace. It would not be in the best interests of the USDA to lower stocks here allowing potential for old crop inversions to blow up. The reports will set the obvious tone for the rest of the week along with weakening macro data. Overnight China stated their CPI jumped to 3.2% from the Feb low. Food inflation was calculated at 7.5% with pork and vegetable oil to blame. As for US data, wait until the end of the week for PPI on Thursday and CPI on Friday. Outside WASDE traders get the second look at crop progress today with corn planting and winter wheat conditions of biggest note. Look for corn plantings to impress again. _____________ Matthew Pierce www.grainanalyst.c om Disclaimer: Trading in futures and options involves a substantial degree of a risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results.  (Apr 9, 2012 | post #1)

Day Trading

The Grains Review For the Week of April 2, 2012

As for today, a higher trade is expected but this is fading as markets approach the opening. Crude and the Euro are fading in spite of strong Chinese economic data. Negative European PMI data is the attributed cause for the weakness there. Old crop corn will likely win versus new crop but do not get bearish CZ corn, it’s a trap. Bear spreads should dominate as they approach the close due to money flow but look to try to take advantage of any pop in inversions. Overall it will be another exciting trade with opportunity abounding for risk tolerant traders. _____________ Matthew Pierce www.grainanalyst.c om Disclaimer: Trading in futures and options involves a substantial degree of a risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results.  (Apr 2, 2012 | post #2)

Day Trading

The Grains Review For the Week of April 2, 2012

On Friday traders saw a wild session. Old crop corn hit and closed limit higher in May alone. Old/new corn spreads blow up, and old/new bean spreads weakened on the rally. New crop beans gained on low acreage expectations, wheat gained on short covering and meal spreads spoke bearish. What a mess. Big shifts due to month end were seen with the bean spreads most bearish along with old crop meal. The biggest of note is the all the sudden bearish K/X bean spread. This spread topped around 54-cents and is now at 41. With the impending roll there is minimal interest in loading up in the front month. Remember that if this spread were truly “good” K/N would not be trading at a carry. I say this is money flow and now with acreage a question in new crop all the incentive lies with November over May. I feel this spread could easily trade right back into even money or a carry over the next 3 weeks offering great potential for bear spreaders. On the other hand, traders saw K/Z and N/Z trader well wider as new crop acreage is all the sudden bearish. Let’s examine this: New crop acreage is thought to be 95.9 million acres with a new crop beans corn ratio at 2.54…interesting. There are way too many acres in the northern regions producers have not put nitrogen on. This means they can shift part of their all the sudden strong Minneapolis wheat to the fertilized land and plant more beans. As cash beans approach $14.00 all the potential lies with beans, not corn in the north. We will still plant plenty of corn but 96 million is too hopeful. Think closer to 95 million on the June acreage report. This is a shift to both oil seeds and spring wheat if the strength remains. The interesting thing of note coming out of Friday was open interest. Big gains in corn and beans while only bean oil saw a drop. Looking into beans, a jump of 31,204 raises an eyebrow. If Friday was supposed to see profit taking due to month end I do not see it. Another concept to consider is index fund reweighting. If a fund has 4% of their portfolio allocated to beans, that percentage is now 5.2% following the 80-cent rally. Bloomberg put out a story stating funds trimmed their positions in commodities by 1.8% to end March but once again open interest does not agree. Corn open interest jumped 17K and meal jumped 5K. Significant gains in the face of questionable fundamentals. If the pull in meal is real, where is the cash bid? Remember that H/K meal left around 4-dollars to a carry. K/N will likely trend there quickly as soon as these funds roll which is over the next couple weeks. Looking at the week ahead, markets have a gap in information with the WASDE report due out on April 11th. They do get the first look at crop progress today. Winter wheat is the focus with high expectations for ratings. Corn may show planting but this report is a preliminary number so do not expect anything aggressive. Outside of that look for pathetic export inspections for corn today with beans far better. Export sales on Thursday should show weak corn and hefty beans once again. The trend continues and shows no sign of abating with Brazilian basis firm. The market is closed on Friday for Good Friday so a shortened week condenses the activity.  (Apr 2, 2012 | post #1)

Day Trading

The Grains Review For the Week of March 26, 2012

The energy markets are mixed to positive offering modest momentum but it all comes down to beans. If the money flow parade continues there is nothing I see stopping a test of $14.00. Corn and wheat will likely follow suit but to a lesser degree with nothing on the fundamental side offering support this morning with the trade seemingly waiting for the USDA report out on Friday morning at 7:30 CST. I will have the estimates out early this week along with banter from the floor - watch for that in the Daily Grain Report. _____________ Matthew Pierce http://www.grainan alyst.com Disclaimer: Trading in futures and options involves a substantial degree of a risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results.  (Mar 27, 2012 | post #2)

Day Trading

The Grains Review For the Week of March 26, 2012

The Grains Review & Special Prospective Plantings Forecast Giveaway For the week of March 26, 2012 By Matthew Pierce Coming back from the weekend, bullish sentiment in beans remains the biggest story. Spreads continue to point higher with SN-X moving over 50-cents overnight. CN-Z remains stuck in the middle of the established range offering mixed signals to corn longs. Bean longs continue to impress even though they lack export demand or any new crop weather threat. The money flow issue carries beans. From Friday, another 13,900 jumped on the bullish bean band wagon. I thought this wagon was overbought 2 weeks ago…Obviously I was wrong. Every CTA, alternative investment advisor and every day trader appears to be jumping on the momentum trade. One major supportive factor for beans is the Dalian. Overnight beans were up 23 while corn was 4 lower. Beans are approaching the cash equivalent of $20.00 with most of this due to vegetable oil demand which in turn helps bean oil and palm oil prices. A trade to watch closely is SX/CZ. The current 2.40 ratio as planting commences puts many producers back into the acreage battle. Corn is still more attractive but beans are gaining. Farm Futures Magazine estimates corn acreage at 95.1 million and beans at 76 million. That is about 400K higher than the average guess for both heading into the acreage report. Old crop bean corn spreads look to reach for contract highs at $7.52 after blowing through the $7.00 resistance. The market lacks logic but a trade doesn’t need logic to crush you if, like me, you remain short term bearish looking for a major correction. After the first lower weekly close in 6-weeks, I felt traders would see profit taking into the March 30th report. Instead, the overnight set a new range high at $13.7950 with this the first battle ground today. There seems to be growing sentiment for a test of $14.00 heading into the report whether or not it is warranted. There is no real demand change though beans off the PNW are bid due to weather logistical problems. Beans are the upside momentum while grains falter due to fading demand and overbought short term technicals. Corn and wheat are relative drags on momentum though corn spreads are speaking bullish. CK-Z broke and closed the overnight above 90 for some reason. No fresh demand for corn doesn’t stop the old crop buying though this is weaker than beans by a large margin. Flat price corn remains stuck in the middle of the established range after holding the 100-day late last week. The 200-day offers resistance to any rally with nothing on the fundamental front looking to impact the market into the report. Weather wise, early planted corn will get a minor scare due to low temps this week but nothing severe enough to cause problems. Talking to producers over the weekend, they are either done with field work waiting to seed or are already seeded waiting for emergence. Very few fields are untilled in central IL. It remains very early but the 30-day temp models promote a very fast pace of planting. Watch CU-Z this week as early planted acreage looks to hedge against the crazy inversion. I think the spread is the weakest on the board. Wheat popped again on Friday due to short covering above the 100-day MA in May. Great weather for the HRW and SRW crops should pressure July and deferred contracts in both. The weakness in KWN-WN is an opportunity. The spread is currently at the range low offering a chance to get long KC versus CHI. This spread has been range bound and looks to remain that way for some time. Weakness in Minny wheat pulls the trade right back to the 100-day MA with planting still weeks away. Wheat remains a messy situation with bearish fundamentals countered by the only fund short remaining on the floor. Looking at today’s trade, the path of least resistance in beans is higher though I still have to wonder how. Corn and wheat will trade both sides looking for momentum from a weakening USD.  (Mar 26, 2012 | post #1)

Day Trading

The Grains Review For the Week of March 5, 2012

South American weather looks wet in central Argentina today and tomorrow offering good chance for beneficial rains. Southern Brazil is dry through the end of the week putting stress back into the crops there. Recent rains in Mato Grosso have stalled harvest only slightly with Brazil still ahead of historical pace. Nothing compelling in either direction to help break the back of bulls or blow bears out of the water. The week should start quietly but there is no doubt in my eyes that traders will see fireworks this week. The big question is which direction? Do these markets see profit taking ahead of the report? Do they see old/new spreads back up as demand wanes and basis fades? Do they see a fresh flow of money into the trade looking for one last leg higher? Does the Euro collapse under the weight of extreme debt or will another German led bailout save the day? Will crude maintain the Iran/Israel war premium or will the Iraq export news curb momentum there? Are current Argentine rains viewed as positive or negative by the trade? Will today’s export inspections support the front end or foreshadow a pullback? These are just a few questions I am addressing this week ahead of WASDE on Friday morning. Disclaimer: Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Fundamental factors, seasonal and weather trends, daily news, and other current events may have already been factored into the markets. The use of stop loss or contingent orders may not protect profits and may not limit losses to the amount intended. Certain market conditions make it difficult or impossible to execute such orders.  (Mar 5, 2012 | post #2)

Day Trading

The Grains Review For the Week of March 5, 2012

On Friday markets saw a very messy trade. Early weakness in corn and wheat was erased as both followed beans to the upside. On the close, wheat popped to daily highs as positive floor momentum and strength in KC and Minny helped support the trade. This feels more like short covering (backed up by losses in OI) than anything on the fundamental side so I do not look for momentum to continue in Chicago where as KC and Minny have some reasons to continue higher as demand and weather remain issues. KC remains an unknown with the HRW crop sure to experience problems if below average precipitation and above normal temps persist through March. The SRW crop should have far fewer problems if the drought monitor is believed. Minny is again bullish due to commercial receipt ownership and talk of acreage losses to Canola and other small grains in northern regions. The acreage war in northern states should be a hell of a show this year with vegetable oil crops moving in on historical wheat land. Talk of corn seed delivery problems from DeKalb in the Dakotas adds to the issues in that region heading into the planting season. Corn saw a tighter trade in CN-Z and a move to an inverse in CH-K. The latter speaks bullish for corn but crude and a weak Euro kept the market in check. Flat price remains stuck in the established range looking for a catalyst that traders probably won’t get on the WASDE report this Friday. No corn receipts out there offers more momentum to CH-K but time is running out to see this spread move. I cannot favor a higher bias in corn due to improved conditions in Argentina, weak demand from China and a wetter 30-day forecast for the northern plains and IA. This 30-day forecast was offered by Elwin Taylor of ISU on Friday during the session. This was the only area of concern preplanting so what is the upside catalyst from here? Beans saw good strength in SN-X closing the week at 42 but if this market is so bullish and there are no receipts out there why is SH-K trading at a 5-cent carry? I cannot make heads or tails of that situation. It points to a money flow issue more than a fundamental supply side rally. Demand is quiet and basis is flat to soft not backing up the bullish sentiment. Another factor on Friday was oil share blowouts with meal gaining heavily against oil. There was blood in the water early but FC Stone helped support the trade easing damage into the latter part of the session. Volume was light across the board not helping my interest in following the well over extended rally. I have been bearish for a while believing this market needs to take a breather before a next possible leg higher. I believe late comers normally portend the end, not the beginning of a real rally. The market does have small issues right now but with S. American harvest and a steady USD there is little to feed the bull so look for more profit taking ahead of the expected dud USDA report. Any change in the Greek debt situation will directly impact the agricultural market so focus there for best macro direction. The overnight session saw minimal activity with Cotton the biggest feature. Cotton moved limit higher on the Indian export ban. India stated a need to secure domestic supplies before they can authorize exports. No timeline has been set in place. EU wheat was modestly higher following Friday’s momentum more than anything seen via the overnight trade. Fresh demand is quiet after Syria passed on a tender for 100K milling wheat. Coming back from the weekend the trade is mixed to higher with corn and protein wheat leading modest upside momentum. Weekend rains were disappointing for some in Brazil and Argentina putting bears on notice this week as traders move into the WASDE report on Friday. Domestic weather offers nothing bullish with southern planting moving along well while northern snows fall in the eastern Dakotas. Coming from Twitter contacts (Thanks Kyle), Shreveport LA should be done this week with high hopes for a good start.  (Mar 5, 2012 | post #1)

Day Trading

The Grains Review For the Week of February 27, 2012

USDA baseline increased wheat acreage to 58 million, increased yield to 44.5, set production at 2.165 billion bushels which increased ending stocks to 957 million. Exports remained flat while feed usage increased as SRW moves further into cattle rations. A non impact as compared with beans and corn but this does take into account much improved expectations for the winter crop. If anything changes for the HRW into spring these numbers will shift dramatically to the bull side. USDA baseline left beans planted acreage at 75 million as compared with last year, increased harvested acreage by 500K (How the hell do they do that?), actually increased yield marginally and increased production by 200 million bushels. The math simply does not work here in my opinion. They increased crush by 35 million bushels, increased exports by 275 million bushels which lowered ending stocks to a shocking 205 million. This is the most bullish baseline number of the big three. What if we do not increase harvested acreage? That puts ending stocks at 165 million which makes many really uneasy and changes the game moving forward. Couple this to the outlook for Argentina and China is sitting on the hot seat. Overall the USDA offered traders a few nuggets to focus on. Look at corn acreage, corn yield, bean harvested acreage, bean exports and crush and spring wheat acreage estimates. An interesting report that leaves the trade leaning more bullish than they were just a few days ago. This also explains the expansion of the SX/CZ ratio…the acreage battle is now on! http://futurespres s.com/imgndoc/pier ce/2-24-12%20mp3.j pg ***chart courtesy Gecko Software’s Track n’ Trade Pro Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Chart: Corn, Dec-12/Soybeans, Nov-12 - Today's USDA numbers changed the outlook for this spread. Beans likely need to fight tooth and nail for acreage so this spread could easily eclipse recent highs around 7.40, in my view. It will be a tough road with all the recent fund length likely to take profits against the range highs but fundamentals are changing quickly so I say do not load up on the bear side as this approaches 7.40. If you must be bearish.... Disclaimer: Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Fundamental factors, seasonal and weather trends, daily news, and other current events may have already been factored into the markets. The use of stop loss or contingent orders may not protect profits and may not limit losses to the amount intended. Certain market conditions make it difficult or impossible to execute such orders.  (Feb 27, 2012 | post #2)

Day Trading

The Grains Review For the Week of February 27, 2012

Special Recap: An Excerpt from Matt's Premium Daily Wire from Friday featuring analysis of the USDA Numbers. The trade is digesting USDA numbers as they come out with the acreage released before the opening offering wheat a reason to move lower. 58 million acres will only add to burdensome stocks domestically and internationally. This does not explain the WH-K spread moving to a 3-inverse during parts of the day. My only theory here is blow outs by late entrenched bear spreaders coupled to logistical problems backing up what appears to be a real strong basis to unattractive levels.... Beans were supported by relatively small acreage as compared with corn and wheat but a lack of front end business could cap the rally into the weekend. Improved weather outlooks for Brazil also capped the front end spread pull so be aware of spread movements today for better direction into the close. I continue to feel beans more than any other is a pit ready to roll over. This market is bloated with fresh length hoping for an explosion that the 70 MMT Brazilian crop should easily counter. The afternoon period brought further numbers from the USDA with Ethanol the glaring figure. A ceiling has been reached concerning domestic demand so new crop corn usage fell by 50 million bushels to 4.95 billion. This is not unexpected and adds to the mild bearish undertone of the trade heading into the overnight session. The overnight was not dramatic with a mild downside tone in spite of strong crude markets. Beans closed in the upper half of the range, corn and wheat near lows while products were mixed. Meal was supported while bean oil was lower on profit taking. Looking at the day session markets first have to digest the USDA conference balance sheets. Corn yields set at 164 bu/acre is quite hopeful I think. Harvest acreage at 87 million produces a whopping 14.27 billion!!! Ending stocks with only minor shifts to demand are estimated at 1.616 billion bushels. This is a staggering number in my eyes based solely on the huge yield estimates. If we yield 146 production is only 12.70 billion, if we meet 2010 numbers production is 13.14 billion. This is by far the largest yield expectations traders will see on the year so I say do not get overly bearish after seeing it. Estimating ending stocks right now is very similar to picking the national champion in your NCAA basketball bracket. Yes, someone hits it but it’s not normally those, “in the know”. The numbers are early estimates based on computer models, not reality of any type. They do not figure in weather, drought monitor, fertilizer costs, crop rotation, seed availability, reality, agronomy or the new crop bean/corn ratio. The last factor is at interesting level sitting at 2.29. Remember that the decision line for producers is normally 2.25 so the choice is harder by the day as seed orders are placed. The 1-1 spread (see chart below) is sitting at $7.13 reaching for the range high around 7.40. At this level look for profit taking as technical pressure adds up. The acreage battle is in full effect with plenty of time to potentially change this spread dramatically. Outside of the USDA numbers traders saw export sales impress again with beans the obvious feature. 3 MMT old and new sales were generally expected but the loadings are still way big! 1.207 MMT shipped with China taking 676 TMT. Corn was the only number that failed to reach the upper end of estimates offering a bit more downside momentum if fundamentals were all that mattered. A higher crude market, weaker USD and an overall sentiment towards bulls should help mitigate any losses into March option expiration on the close. Look for another choppy session with end week positioning helping set the tone into the latter parts of the session. I may be cutting my teeth on the wrong side of the market but I continue to feel this trade is overinflated in the short term....  (Feb 27, 2012 | post #1)

Day Trading

The Grains Review For the Week of February 13, 2012

Coming back from the weekend I see a higher start to the week with momentum from the Euro and crude helping more than internal sentiment. The biggest factor here is the Greek austerity vote passing. Glad to see a vote without the agreement of a rioting populace helps European outlooks. This is a joke and should be considered one but it is not so markets will likely move higher. This is sentiment more than reality. The agricultural markets are followers to start the week lacking any news with many waiting for next week’s USDA outlook conference in Washington DC. This meeting will offer the first “official” numbers farmers can use for planting intentions and pricing models for the 12/13 crop year. Traders do get the USDA budget today which will show expected cuts across the board but this is a minor issue in the big picture. The fact is, there is little to direct the market this week so expect a choppy directionless chop with wild swings for no particular reason. This will hurt front end volatility but I stand by my statement that volatility is too cheap in May and deferred contracts. The spring is winding and when it snaps back it will be a vicious move. Overall today will likely be a higher session lacking any real fundamental or technical reason to do so. I like the bullish side in the long run but do not feel things have a catalyst to blow it up this week. Markets may have it next week with the USDA outlook but that is still some time away. Disclaimer: Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Fundamental factors, seasonal and weather trends, daily news, and other current events may have already been factored into the markets. The use of stop loss or contingent orders may not protect profits and may not limit losses to the amount intended. Certain market conditions make it difficult or impossible to execute such orders.  (Feb 13, 2012 | post #1)

Day Trading

The Softs Review For the Week of December 19, 2011

The Softs Review For the week of December 19, 2011 By Jurgens H. Bauer For the week coffee prices continued downward, making new lows and looking weak. Cocoa prices staged an early week sizable rally when nervous shorts covered after a private report warned of reduced production slated for the Ivory coast. However, cocoa values resumed their move lower again, although managing slight gains for the week. Sugar prices consolidated with the key feature being the reduction of volatility in option prices. Cotton prices moved sideways to lower. What to expect in the week ahead? Anticipate resumption of US Dollar strength to pressure values among softs and for markets to be choppy and vulnerable because they will be thin. Disclaimer: Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Fundamental factors, seasonal and weather trends, daily news, and other current events may have already been factored into the markets. The use of stop loss or contingent orders may not protect profits and may not limit losses to the amount intended. Certain market conditions make it difficult or impossible to execute such orders.  (Dec 19, 2011 | post #1)

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