China's Economic Collapse only a ques...

China's Economic Collapse only a question of WHEN

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The CCP is DYING

Port Moody, Canada

#1 Jun 17, 2013
Yes, At Some Point China Will Implode

Henry Blodget

Jun. 17, 2013, 11:16 AM 161

REUTERS/Stringer China
If there has been one prediction made more than any other over the past couple of decades, it's that China's miraculous economy is headed for a fall.

China bears have pointed to a long list of disasters-in-the-making, from questionable economic statistics to skyrocketing real-estate prices to ghost cities to centrally planned growth to corruption to pollution to civil unrest to debt.

And yet, despite all of these concerns, China's economic machine has just kept chugging along.

But this time it's going to be different!, says an analyst from Fitch. This time, China really is screwed.

According to Ambrose Evans-Pritchard of the Telegraph, Fitch analyst Charlene Chu has concluded that China's growth is being fueled by a credit bubble that is unlike anything the modern world has ever seen. This debt bubble is leading to massive overbuilding, Chu says. And when it finally bursts, as debt bubbles always do, China will be looking at a Japan-style depression and deflation.

Given the number of China doom prophesies that have been made over the past two decades, you can be forgiven for rolling your eyes at this one and moving on. But Chu does cite some startling statistics, including the claim that China's debt-to-GDP ratio has quietly shot up to more than 200% and that each additional yuan borrowed is producing ever less growth. If there's any hard law of finance, it's that what can't go on forever won't. And borrowing at this rate relative to economic growth can't go on forever.

That said, as always, the key question is "when?"

At some point, China's economy is almost certainly going to go through the same sort of violent setbacks that every economy goes through, including the economy with which China's is compared--the U.S. economy.

The growth of the U.S. economy over the past century has been nothing short of miraculous. But it has been anything but a smooth ride. Amidst its decades of expansion, the U.S. has gone through several decade-long periods of depression and stagnation, often following debt buildups just like the one China appears to be experiencing. In fact, the U.S. economy is still struggling to move past its latest debt-fueled bubble, the housing boom that turned to bust five years ago and took the country down with it.

If China manages to avoid this boom-bust pattern forever, the country's resurgence really will be miraculous. And what is likely to send the Chinese economy into its own depression is exactly the sort of debt buildup that Chu describes.

But booms often last much longer than most analysts think they can. And unless or until we know exactly when China's boom will end--which, if history is a guide, we won't know until after the fact--it's hard to make decisions based on this forecast.

Yes, at some point, China's economy will crack. Alas, no one knows when.
The CCP is DYING

Port Moody, Canada

#2 Jun 17, 2013
The "silver lining" for China is that a recession will utterly destroy the decaying remnants of the dying Chinese Communist Party dictatorship!

"It's a GOOD THING!"
The CCP is DYING

Port Moody, Canada

#3 Jun 17, 2013
"In a sign that concerns about financial stress in the Chinese economy are mounting, ratings agency Fitch Ratings warned at the weekend that the scale of credit is so extreme that China will find it hard to "grow its way out of the excesses," The Daily Telegraph newspaper reported.

"The credit-driven growth model is clearly falling apart. This could feed into a massive over-capacity problem, and potentially into a Japanese-style deflation," Charlene Chu, senior director at Fitch Ratings, told the Daily Telegraph."

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100819366
The CCP is DYING

Port Moody, Canada

#4 Jun 17, 2013
Yes, it's only a matter of time.....
Snowflake

San Francisco, CA

#5 Jun 17, 2013
Give it up Miro, evil ppl like you had been saying this for 40 yrs, never happened. China is China's own worst enemy. When they are united and strong no one can even come close to touching them
AZN

Toronto, Canada

#6 Jun 17, 2013
The CCP is DYING wrote:
Yes, it's only a matter of time.....
I believe experts like you were predicting China's imminent economic and social collapse, even before the 2008 crisis had hit.

So when is this time for China's doom supposed to come precisely?
Snowflake

San Francisco, CA

#7 Jun 17, 2013
China's leaders the CCP have put in the proper measures to insure smooth sailing. Yes there are greed ,corruption and crooks in China but not as bad as most countries. China will be alright, Miro have to wait another 1,000 yrs for China to have a glitch.
Bob Burns

Kunming, China

#8 Jun 17, 2013
Yeah, maybe, in about 3-500 years. You know of course, because you're an educated person, that we have been the economic leader in 18 of the past 20 centuries?
Snowflake

San Francisco, CA

#10 Jun 17, 2013
In the five or six thousand yrs of human history the area in what we called China the last three thousand yrs 90% of the time China was the number ONE in the world. China is its own worst enemy, nothing can stop China but itself.
Bob Burns

Kunming, China

#11 Jun 17, 2013
Snowflake wrote:
In the five or six thousand yrs of human history the area in what we called China the last three thousand yrs 90% of the time China was the number ONE in the world. China is its own worst enemy, nothing can stop China but itself.
Each Dynasty since Chin's has followed the cyclic pastern of birth, growth, decay, death, into the Phoenix fire to be reborn again. It is the way of nature, adapted and adopted by the Chinese into their form of govt. Average for this inevitable cycle is 2-300 years. This particular Dynasty we now have seem quite vigorous and intelligent, so I reckon they have a good shot at the higher end. But yes, eventually they will succumb to corruption and apathy. The CCP Dynasty will end, but China will continue on its way, reborn, unlike the rest which only have one shot before disappearing into the mist of backwaterism
Snowflake

San Francisco, CA

#12 Jun 18, 2013
The CCP are a bunch of smart technocrats, they put knowledge and country first, it will last a long time. Prior to that China was controlled by politicians who were selfish,self serving and evil.
That is why the short life. As long as China is not govern by lawyers and politicians they will last forever, till the end of time.
The CCP is DYING

Port Moody, Canada

#14 Jun 18, 2013
Snowflake wrote:
Give it up Miro, evil ppl like you had been saying this for 40 yrs, never happened. China is China's own worst enemy. When they are united and strong no one can even come close to touching them
HA HA HA HA HA HA!

But the CCP regime is OBVIOUSLY WEAK and has to SPEND MORE ATTACKING ITS OWN PEOPLE than it does on DEFENSE!

The economic data is all faked, the regime has to CENSOR any criticism due to its WEAKNESS and ALL SIMILAR STALINIST REGIMES HAVE ALREADY COLLAPSED!

Half of China is under MILITARY OCCUPATION, and the people HATE the Chinese Communist Party dictator scum!

Being WEAK and DIVIDED INTO criminal FACTIONS, the CCP quite certainly won't last much longer with the economy collapsing. Wake up, "Snowfake"!
Bob Burns

Kunming, China

#15 Jun 18, 2013
The CCP is DYING wrote:
<quoted text>
HA HA HA HA HA HA!
But the CCP regime is OBVIOUSLY WEAK and has to SPEND MORE ATTACKING ITS OWN PEOPLE than it does on DEFENSE!
The economic data is all faked, the regime has to CENSOR any criticism due to its WEAKNESS and ALL SIMILAR STALINIST REGIMES HAVE ALREADY COLLAPSED!
Half of China is under MILITARY OCCUPATION, and the people HATE the Chinese Communist Party dictator scum!
Being WEAK and DIVIDED INTO criminal FACTIONS, the CCP quite certainly won't last much longer with the economy collapsing. Wake up, "Snowfake"!
Your criticism is right on, a perfect description, but your finger slipped a bit. You accidentally said China, when its obviously America
The CCP is DYING

Surrey, Canada

#16 Jun 19, 2013
Bob Burns wrote:
<quoted text>Your criticism is right on, a perfect description, but your finger slipped a bit. You accidentally said China, when its obviously America
Yes, all you CCP have are childish obvious lies. Thanks for illustrating that, stupid!
The CCP is DYING

Port Moody, Canada

#17 Jun 21, 2013
Bob Burns wrote:
<quoted text>Your criticism is right on, a perfect description, but your finger slipped a bit. You accidentally said China, when its obviously America
Say, "Bob", do your clownish "Sing the Red" routine that makes your CCP paymasters LAUGH SO HARD!

You know, the one where you PRAISE MARX and COMMUNISM and dance while "denouncing" the "evil American imperialists"?

A "useful idiot" like you is so FUNNY, he should be shared!

HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA!
OVERTHROW the CCP PIGS

Surrey, Canada

#18 Jun 21, 2013
Snowflake wrote:
China's leaders the CCP have put in the proper measures to insure smooth sailing. Yes there are greed ,corruption and crooks in China but not as bad as most countries. China will be alright, Miro have to wait another 1,000 yrs for China to have a glitch.
Several "glitches" in the last week, but you only read Xinhua propaganda so you would not have noticed.

On your fantasy, it seems kind of childishly implausible.

"The growth of the U.S. economy over the past century has been nothing short of miraculous. But it has been anything but a smooth ride. Amidst its decades of expansion, the U.S. has gone through several decade-long periods of depression and stagnation, often following debt buildups just like the one China appears to be experiencing."

Next time actually read the article, you lazy CCP arse-licker and ignorant moron!
OVERTHROW the CCP PIGS

Surrey, Canada

#19 Jun 23, 2013
Even a mild recession will destroy the Chinese Communist Party kleptocracy.
The CCP is DYING

Surrey, Canada

#20 Jun 23, 2013
Snowflake wrote:
The CCP are a bunch of smart technocrats, they put knowledge and country first, it will last a long time. Prior to that China was controlled by politicians who were selfish,self serving and evil.
That is why the short life. As long as China is not govern by lawyers and politicians they will last forever, till the end of time.
HA HA HA HA HA HA!

But the CCP regime is OBVIOUSLY WEAK and has to SPEND MORE ATTACKING ITS OWN PEOPLE than it does on DEFENSE!

The economic data is all faked, the regime has to CENSOR any criticism due to its WEAKNESS and ALL SIMILAR STALINIST REGIMES HAVE ALREADY COLLAPSED!

Half of China is under MILITARY OCCUPATION, and the people HATE the Chinese Communist Party dictator scum!

Being WEAK and DIVIDED INTO criminal FACTIONS, the CCP quite certainly won't last much longer with the economy collapsing. Wake up, "Snowfake"!
BaKuteH

Petaling Jaya, Malaysia

#21 Jun 23, 2013
woah this place is filthed with pignoy
The CCP is DYING

Surrey, Canada

#23 Jun 23, 2013
BaKuteH wrote:
woah this place is filthed with pignoy
They say that "patriotism is the last refuge of the scoundrel", but you Chinese Communist Party Wu Mao have racism too, eh?

HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA!

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