The Coming COLLAPSE of China!

The Coming COLLAPSE of China!

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CHINA in DECLINE

Surrey, Canada

#1 Feb 4, 2014
The Coming Collapse of China
By Fahim Masoud | February 2, 2014

In a remarkably short period of time, China has become a world-class manufacturing powerhouse.

Tiananmen Square. Photo: Peter Morgan

Not surprisingly, China’s impressive economic growth of 9.5% annually, its widespread economic investments around the world, and its rapid ascent to global power, have caused concern in the western world, especially in the United States. China’s growing appetite for non-renewable resources, and its efforts to achieve global hegemony has added to this anxiety. History demonstrates that when a new great power emerges, uncertainty and conflict follow, because the rise of this new player challenges the status quo. China’s recent successes and its entry onto the global stage have convinced many historians and scholars of international relations – Martin Jacques and Niall Ferguson to name two – that China will inevitably become a global hegemon. I believe it is naive to think that there will be such a thing as a global hegemon. No country or great power can completely dominate the world today. However, the closest a country can come to global hegemony is through regional hegemony.

The United States is supposed to be the world’s superpower not because it is dominating the entire world, but because of its complete domination of the western hemisphere. As of now, it has no political, military, or economic rival in its region. Contrary to conventional wisdom, I argue that China will not dominate the twenty first century. Nor will it become the hegemon – the political, military, and economic leader – of its region. I maintain that China, after the slow-down of its economic growth, will began to recede and thus play a much more diminished role on the global scene. China’s history demonstrates that the country is a regional hegemon when it is internally stable. When internally unstable, the country is in no position to project its power effectively abroad. One of the major problems the country is currently faced with is Uyghur nationalism and their independence movement.

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CHINA in DECLINE

Surrey, Canada

#2 Feb 4, 2014
...
China’s ability to maintain its economic growth is also in question, and the failure of China’s government to do so would be colossal. Social unrest and political chaos are already looming over China. Even a small political crisis will do serious damage to China’s economic growth. In a recent op-ed article in National Interest, Jonathan Levine raises a critical topic:“Why Reform Eludes China.” Levine’s response is revealing:“The importance of mature institutions in ensuring stable growth is nowhere more visibly on display now than in China, where their failings arguably pose the single greatest challenge for the ruling Communist Party.” China is a fragile power because it has challenges the communist leadership cannot overcome. Unlike western democracies, it is not success in the next election that keeps Chinese leaders awake at night but anxieties about social unrest that could potentially bring down the communist regime.

In addition, China is located on a continent with many regional economic powerhouses – India, Japan, Indonesia, Vietnam and South Korea. These countries, as Fareed Zakaria points out, harbor deep historical mistrust and suspicion towards one another. As China attempts to become the dominant power, these countries will unite in response to China’s growing influence in their backyards. As John Mearsheimer argues in the Tragedy of Great Power Politics, no country can assert the status of the great power in the world, unless it has dominated its own continent first.

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CHINA in DECLINE

Surrey, Canada

#3 Feb 4, 2014
...
Mearsheimer’s theory of international relations, termed “offensive realism,” is based on the inherent fears for survival that arise in the anarchic international system.“Survival is a state’s most important goal, because a state cannot pursue any other goals if it does not survive.” The basic structure of the international system forces states concerned about their security to compete with each other for power. The ultimate goal of every great power is to maximize its share of world power and eventually dominate the system. However, Mearsheimer writes,“Great powers behave aggressively not because they want to or because they possess some inner drive to dominate, but because they have to seek more power if they want to maximize their odds of survival.” It is only through expansion and accumulation of power that a great power can assure its survival.

Can China become the hegemon in its region in the face of these major problems? It will be very trying for the Chinese government to sustain its economic growth and project its power in an effective way in its region. China is plagued with colossal problems ranging from regional power play to a growing middle class who demand political participation. Tackling these issues will be a major challenge for the Chinese Communist Party and there is no reason to worry that China will dominate the world any time soon. For upon closer examination the prospects of the Middle Kingdom achieving global hegemony are not as high as it is thought.
UNSTABLE DYING CCP

Surrey, Canada

#4 Feb 4, 2014
"China is a fragile power because it has challenges the communist leadership cannot overcome. Unlike western democracies, it is not success in the next election that keeps Chinese leaders awake at night but anxieties about social unrest that could potentially bring down the communist regime."
UNSTABLE DYING CCP

Surrey, Canada

#5 Feb 5, 2014
" Social unrest and political chaos are already looming over China. Even a small political crisis will do serious damage to China’s economic growth. In a recent op-ed article in National Interest, Jonathan Levine raises a critical topic:“Why Reform Eludes China.” Levine’s response is revealing:“The importance of mature institutions in ensuring stable growth is nowhere more visibly on display now than in China, where their failings arguably pose the single greatest challenge for the ruling Communist Party.”

Yes, the CCP system is at a dead end, and has nothing left in its future but to die as quickly as possible.......
China is Mystery Meat

Surrey, Canada

#6 Feb 5, 2014
Today from;
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-05/pese...

Pimco Gross-ed out in China.

Well, Bill, good luck with that next China business visa. Officials in Beijing can't be happy to hear Bill Gross, arguably the world's most famous bond investor, dismissing their economy as the "mystery meat of emerging-market countries." Yet China would be mistaken to ignore the Pacific Investment Management honcho's warnings about the murkiness and official hype that surrounds the mainland economy: "There’s a little bit of bologna, so we’re just going to have to wonder going forward through this year as to the potential problems." China's huge shadow-banking industry in particular makes the country the ultimate black box. That a household name is calling China Inc. a financial sausage (the less you know about what's inside, the happier you are) should be timely food for thought in Beijing, and incentive to clean up its act.
CHINA in DECLINE

Surrey, Canada

#7 Feb 6, 2014
China, the Death Star of Emerging Markets

By William Pesek Feb 6, 2014 2:58 AM PT

On any list of banking accidents waiting to happen, China is assured a place at the very top. But could a crash there take the entire global economy down with it?

Absolutely, says Charlene Chu, who until recently was Fitch's headline-generating analyst in Beijing. Chu has fearlessly trod into an area that China is trying desperately to keep off limits: its vast shadow-banking system. Now that she's working for a private firm that doesn't have to rely to governments for revenue, as do rating companies, Chu is free to speak completely openly. And is she ever.

"The banking sector has extended $14 trillion to $15 trillion in the span of five years," Chu, who is now with Autonomous Research, told the Telegraph. "There’s no way that we are not going to have massive problems in China." What's more, she added, China "could trigger global meltdown."

The travails of Greece continue to preoccupy the world, but its $249 billion economy is a rounding error compared to China's $8.2 trillion one. In December 2005, for example, China announced its output had unexpectedly grown by $285 billion. In other words, it had suddenly found an economy bigger than Singapore's that its statisticians hadn't known about.Today, simply put, a Chinese crash would make the 2008 collapse of Lehman Brothers seem like a mere market correction.

The kind of meltdown Chu suggests is possible would end Japan's revival, slam economies from South Korea to Vietnam, savage stock and commodity prices everywhere, force the Federal Reserve to end its tapering process and prompt emergency national-security briefings in Washington. So feel free to obsess over Turkey and Argentina, but the real "wild card" is the world's second-biggest economy.

That's how Bill Gross referred to China in the Bloomberg Television interview that produced his widely-quoted "mystery meat" analogy. "Nobody knows what’s there and there’s a little bit of bologna," Gross said of China's financial system on Feb. 4, "so we’re just going to have to wonder going forward through this year as to the potential problems in China and other emerging markets.”

Gross's comment was an instant classic, sure to stand alongside hedge fund-manager Jim Chanos characterizing China as "on a treadmill to hell” with growth driven by the “heroin of property development.” But there's a disturbing element of truth in what Gross and Chanos say, truth that even the smartest China watchers anywhere -- Chu included -- can't quite get to the bottom of. China is doing all it can to keep the prying eyes of the media -- both foreign and domestic -- away from the nexus of Communist Party power brokers, shadow-banking activity and state-run enterprises that feeds corruption and stymies reform.

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CHINA in DECLINE

Surrey, Canada

#8 Feb 6, 2014
...
Much is made of how Chinese growth may slow to 7.4 percent this year, a downshift seen as evidence that President Xi Jinping is restructuring the economy. Yet if Xi were really turning China's model of excessive investment and exports upside down, growth would be closer to 5 percent than 7 percent. Because such a slowdown might foment social instability, China keeps its foot on the gas. The faster China grows, the less it's remaking the economy. The more growth remains in the 7 percent range, the more over-borrowing and over-lending is taking place. In other words, the shadow-banking system is still growing.

The problem here, and the thing that connects Chu's worries with those of Gross and Chanos, is that the longer China delays its reckoning the bigger and more painful it will be. As an economy, China is obviously too big to fail. But the real question is whether its opaque banking system ultimately proves too big to save.

China didn't avoid the 2008 global crisis so much as delay the pain. It insulated itself by opening the credit floodgates and allowing banks to take on untold mountains of foreign borrowings, largely in U.S. dollars. To some, China's mystery-meat scenario resembles Japan's credit explosion in the 1980s; to others, it looks like the crash that undid Indonesia, Korea and Thailand in 1997. But what if it's none of the above? We could witness a crash of a magnitude never before seen. If that's not case for indigestion, what is?
CHINA in DECLINE

Surrey, Canada

#9 Feb 6, 2014
"The banking sector has extended $14 trillion to $15 trillion in the span of five years," Chu, who is now with Autonomous Research, told the Telegraph. "There’s no way that we are not going to have massive problems in China." What's more, she added, China "could trigger global meltdown."

It's inevitable.
CHINA in DECLINE

Surrey, Canada

#10 Feb 6, 2014
I think FEAR of THESE FACTS is what makes the feeble and pathetic Wu Mao who infest this forum have to resort to their typical Red Guard "denunciations" and hate threads to spam away the facts!

But all it REALLY DOES is illustrate their INTELLECTUAL WEAKNESS, stupidity, and FEAR at realizing the Chinese Communist Party dictatorship is dying faster by the day!

Soon, they will all disappear from this forum, as most of them have already done!
CHINA in DECLINE

Surrey, Canada

#11 Feb 6, 2014
The end is fast approaching for the Chinese Communist Party dictatorship.....
CHINA in DECLINE

Surrey, Canada

#12 Feb 6, 2014
Can Wu Mao spam save the Chinese Communist Party dictatorship from reality?

Obviously not.
CHINA in DECLINE

Surrey, Canada

#13 Feb 7, 2014
Can cowardice save them?

No, that won't work either.
CHINA in DECLINE

Surrey, Canada

#14 Feb 11, 2014
"....the longer China delays its reckoning the bigger and more painful it will be...."
CHINA in DECLINE

Surrey, Canada

#15 Feb 12, 2014
"...SocGen thinks at the peak of a crisis “the year-on-year growth rate would dip to 2% and the economy would contract for two quarters.”

http://business.financialpost.com/2014/02/11/...

Seems unrealistically optimistic. They are not factoring in the total chaos that the weak CCP regime, which is already falling to pieces in factional warfare, being abandoned by its own membership, and rotten to the core with corruption, will cause China with its death spasms. It will take at least a year to return to growth after a provisional interim leadership is installed and free elections are held.
CHINA in DECLINE

Surrey, Canada

#16 Feb 14, 2014
Has China finally reached the precipice?

The Globe and Mail
Published Friday, Feb. 14 2014, 2:40 PM EST

China poised for its ‘Bear Stearns moment’

The Canadian economy and domestic equities were rescued in 2008 by an unprecedented credit expansion in China. Now with that bubble fully inflated, it looks like the Middle Kingdom’s own “Bear Stearns moment” has arrived. And don’t say you haven’t been warned. The Globe’s Scott Barlow has been signalling the forces at work for months, warning of the threat of the growing credit bubble, the imminent day of reckoning, the concerns of even the most bullish China watchers, and the country’s addiction to cheap credit. Canadian investors need to take note and act accordingly, says Mr. Barlow in ROB Insight, with resource stocks and commodities most at risk of getting flattened by a collapse.
CHINA in DECLINE

Surrey, Canada

#17 Feb 14, 2014
Today we read about how FIVE "Shadow Banks" in CCP China are about to collapse, and the Globe runs this.......

Has China finally reached the precipice?

The Globe and Mail
Published Friday, Feb. 14 2014, 2:40 PM EST

China poised for its ‘Bear Stearns moment’

The Canadian economy and domestic equities were rescued in 2008 by an unprecedented credit expansion in China. Now with that bubble fully inflated, it looks like the Middle Kingdom’s own “Bear Stearns moment” has arrived. And don’t say you haven’t been warned. The Globe’s Scott Barlow has been signalling the forces at work for months, warning of the threat of the growing credit bubble, the imminent day of reckoning, the concerns of even the most bullish China watchers, and the country’s addiction to cheap credit. Canadian investors need to take note and act accordingly, says Mr. Barlow in ROB Insight, with resource stocks and commodities most at risk of getting flattened by a collapse.
lel

Huntington Beach, CA

#18 Mar 14, 2014
Surrey smells like poo because you Indians live there.
RayH

Shenzhen, China

#19 Mar 14, 2014
The only thing in decline is your mental health, Miro-dog.
CHINA in DECLINE

Surrey, Canada

#20 Apr 28, 2014
Yes, all the facts are against you, so all you have is pathetic racist insults.

Also a symptom of decline, your intellectual weakness!

HA HA HA HA HA HA HA!

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