China Growth falls below 7 percent

[Mirolyuba]

China Slowdown Seen Longer Than in Crisis by State Economist
By Bloomberg News - Sep 20, 2012 8:27 PM PT

China’s economic slowdown may last longer than during the global financial crisis because of worsening external demand and limited lending to smaller companies, a state researcher said.

Growth may slow for a ninth straight period to below 7 percent in the first quarter, Yuan Gangming, an economist with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said in an interview Sept. 19 in Beijing. Yuan, who formerly headed CASS’s Office of Macroeconomic Research in the Institute of Economics, forecast 7.4 percent expansion in the third quarter and 7.2 percent in the last period of the year.

A report yesterday showed China’s manufacturing may contract for an 11th month, and Yuan Gangming, an economist with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said in an interview said the central bank has been too focused on controlling inflation at the expense of growth.

A report yesterday showed China’s manufacturing may contract for an 11th month, and Yuan Gangming, an economist with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said in an interview said the central bank has been too focused on controlling inflation at the expense of growth. Photographer: Nelson Ching/Bloomberg
The slowdown may pressure new leaders of the Communist Party, set to be named this year in a once-a-decade power handover, to step up stimulus efforts. A report yesterday showed China’s manufacturing may contract for an 11th month, and Yuan said the central bank has been too focused on controlling inflation at the expense of growth.

“The slowdown will definitely extend into the first quarter of next year,” said Yuan, 58, who advises the government without being directly involved in policy making.“That will provide a good starting point for the new generation of leadership to make a turnaround, because things can’t get worse.”

The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.5 percent as of 11:14 a.m. local time, paring the benchmark’s steepest weekly drop since October.

Stimulus Package
With the 2008 crisis, China enacted a 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion at the time) stimulus and opened up bank lending to revive expansion. Year-over-year growth, after decelerating for seven quarters, bottomed at 6.2 percent in the first quarter of 2009 and accelerated to 11.9 percent a year later.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News this month, in contrast with Yuan, see growth rebounding next quarter. The median estimates for expansion were 7.4 percent for the third quarter, 7.7 percent in the fourth quarter and 7.9 percent in the first period of 2013.

...

[Mirolyuba]

...

Data for the past two months point to a deepening slowdown in the world’s second-biggest economy after growth decelerated to a three-year-low of 7.6 percent last quarter. Even so, the People’s Bank of China has held off from easing after cutting interest rates in June and July and lowering lenders’ reserve requirement ratio three times from November to May.

Policy Paralysis
The Communist Party has yet to announce a date for the congress this year that will start the process of the leadership handover. Lu Ting, chief Greater China economist at Bank of America Corp., said this month that the nation had “policy paralysis” as a result of the pending transition.

Yuan, who also teaches at Tsinghua University in Beijing, said unsustainable local-government spending plans will also contribute to the slowdown.

“China’s medium and small-sized businesses are finding it increasingly hard to borrow money from banks -- the most fundamental part of the economy is suffering,” Yuan said.

The nation’s target for 14 percent growth in the M2 money supply this year is helpful to keep inflation in check yet too low to accommodate accelerated growth, Yuan said.

The U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision last week to start a third round of large-scale asset purchases “may not necessarily lead to big capital inflows into China,” Yuan said.“If the markets in the United States are performing better than China’s, why should investors bother to come to China?”

Stock Gauges
The U.S. benchmark Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (SHCOMP) is up about 22 percent in the past year while China’s Shanghai Composite Index has dropped 17 percent.

Banks and brokerages cutting their gross domestic product forecasts this month include UBS AG, Morgan Stanley and Barclays Plc, who predict growth will sink to a 22-year low of 7.5 percent this year.

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, who pledged last week to employ monetary and fiscal policies to spur growth, has accelerated infrastructure-project approvals while refraining from introducing a stimulus package on the scale of the one during the financial crisis.

To contact the reporter on this story: Xin Zhou in Beijing at [e-mail]

[Mirolyuba]

Remember, this is all based on "official" CCP data.

They have a LONG history of FAKING DATA to laughably "fulfil every plan" in typical Stalinist/Maoist stupidity.

And, if you assume that the CCP Cadres have been faking the numbers, CCP China is likely ALREADY IN A RECESSION.

[RayH]

You mean below 8 %.

Most EU countries would be lucky to even get 1 % this year.

[GAY BOB]

RayH wrote:

You mean below 8 %.
Most EU countries would be lucky to even get 1 % this year.

LOL, deflect RAY, Deflect, that is all you know, you must be one of the weak minded han we loved to cheat when you came to visit down south??

Please come again so we can cheat you more!!!

Did you know Rayhole that timber land is good to own, buy east Texas, LA and OR, you will not be disappointed!!

That is if you can travel to the US??

[Mirolyuba]

CCP China "growth" is likely ZERO once all the CCP lies are stripped away!

RECESSION.

CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY DOOMED.

Deal with it.

[RayH]

GAY BOB wrote:

<quoted text>
LOL, deflect RAY, Deflect, that is all you know, you must be one of the weak minded han we loved to cheat when you came to visit down south??
Please come again so we can cheat you more!!!
Did you know Rayhole that timber land is good to own, buy east Texas, LA and OR, you will not be disappointed!!
That is if you can travel to the US??

Just there recently. Still mired in recession.

[UIdiotRacesMakeW orldPeace]

Luckly China is smart enought and did not give in to US pressure to have devaluating the Yaun and trade sanctions oppressions... else it be like ruined Japan, philiphione and other nations economies.

[I can read]

RayH wrote:

You mean below 8 %.
Most EU countries would be lucky to even get 1 % this year.

Congratulations.

If that growth translates into 8% increased spending power and EU countries have absolutely no growth in their spending power then it will only take 19 whole years to catch us up.

Do you think you'll manage that level of growth for that long?

[UIdiotRacesMakeW orldPeace]

I can read wrote:

<quoted text>
Congratulations.
If that growth translates into 8% increased spending power and EU countries have absolutely no growth in their spending power then it will only take 19 whole years to catch us up.
Do you think you'll manage that level of growth for that long?

Over 200 countries to do business with.

[UIdiotRacesMakeW orldPeace]

GAY BOB wrote:

<quoted text>
LOL, deflect RAY, Deflect, that is all you know, you must be one of the weak minded han we loved to cheat when you came to visit down south??
Please come again so we can cheat you more!!!
Did you know Rayhole that timber land is good to own, buy east Texas, LA and OR, you will not be disappointed!!
That is if you can travel to the US??

u lacking a brain! over 2oo nations to do business with, thye just need to learn marketing analysis...

[I can read]

UIdiotRacesMakeWorldPeace wrote:

<quoted text>Over 200 countries to do business with.

No more than anyone else.

How does that help?

[UIdiotRacesMakeW orldPeace]

I can read wrote:

<quoted text>
No more than anyone else.
How does that help?

China still have over 80% of countries to do business with and having started it marketing!:)

[GAY BOB]

RayH wrote:

<quoted text>
Just there recently. Still mired in recession.

LOL, sure you were rayhole!!!

[GAY BOB]

UIdiotRacesMakeWorldPeace wrote:

<quoted text>u lacking a brain! over 2oo nations to do business with, thye just need to learn marketing analysis...

Please write english!!! Maybe thye need to go back to school????

[UIdiotRacesMakeW orldPeace]

GAY BOB wrote:

<quoted text>
Please write english!!! Maybe thye need to go back to school????

ESl - English Secondary language --- waning! BWHAHAHAHAHHAHAAaaaa

[lct]

Mirolyuba wrote:

China Slowdown Seen Longer Than in Crisis by State Economist
By Bloomberg News - Sep 20, 2012 8:27 PM PT
China’s economic slowdown may last longer than during the global financial crisis because of worsening external demand and limited lending to smaller companies, a state researcher said.
Growth may slow for a ninth straight period to below 7 percent in the first quarter, Yuan Gangming, an economist with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said in an interview Sept. 19 in Beijing. Yuan, who formerly headed CASS’s Office of Macroeconomic Research in the Institute of Economics, forecast 7.4 percent expansion in the third quarter and 7.2 percent in the last period of the year.
A report yesterday showed China’s manufacturing may contract for an 11th month, and Yuan Gangming, an economist with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said in an interview said the central bank has been too focused on controlling inflation at the expense of growth.
A report yesterday showed China’s manufacturing may contract for an 11th month, and Yuan Gangming, an economist with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said in an interview said the central bank has been too focused on controlling inflation at the expense of growth. Photographer: Nelson Ching/Bloomberg
The slowdown may pressure new leaders of the Communist Party, set to be named this year in a once-a-decade power handover, to step up stimulus efforts. A report yesterday showed China’s manufacturing may contract for an 11th month, and Yuan said the central bank has been too focused on controlling inflation at the expense of growth.
“The slowdown will definitely extend into the first quarter of next year,” said Yuan, 58, who advises the government without being directly involved in policy making.“That will provide a good starting point for the new generation of leadership to make a turnaround, because things can’t get worse.”
The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.5 percent as of 11:14 a.m. local time, paring the benchmark’s steepest weekly drop since October.
Stimulus Package
With the 2008 crisis, China enacted a 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion at the time) stimulus and opened up bank lending to revive expansion. Year-over-year growth, after decelerating for seven quarters, bottomed at 6.2 percent in the first quarter of 2009 and accelerated to 11.9 percent a year later.
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News this month, in contrast with Yuan, see growth rebounding next quarter. The median estimates for expansion were 7.4 percent for the third quarter, 7.7 percent in the fourth quarter and 7.9 percent in the first period of 2013.
...

hi, at laest try to be an decent gay.:)

[Mirolyuba]

So the FAILURES and INCOMPETENCE of the Chinese Communist Party is only recognizable by "gay"?

Have you CCP lackeys ever realized that your heads are full of shiht?

I guess your DESPERATION at TOTALLY FAILING to deal with the FACTS is at the heart of your PATHETIC anti-gay slurs!

How WEAK you Chinese Communist Party MORONS are now!

I doubt you will last to the end of the year with such crude stupidity dominating your STUNTED, miniscule mass-murderer minds!

CCP are CLOWNS!

HA ha ha ha ha ha!

[Mirolyuba]

A FULL YEAR of DECLINE in the Chinese economy so.....

the CCP lackey accuses any who point out that FACT of being "gay"?

Gee, is there ANY OTHER COUNTRY on EARTH where such a WEAK and STUPID, BACKWARD and CORRUPT regime like the CCP can survive?

Maybe North Korea!

HA HA HA HA HA HA!