The Future Of Japan-China Relations
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#1 Jun 9, 2010
JAPAN has indic previously that, come circa Year 2050 [plus-minus], JAPAN MAY NO LONGER NEED RELY ON THE US-JAPAN SECURITY TREAY + US NUCLEAR SHIELD. In addition, the US itself has indic that it wants EFFEC OR RELIABLE US GMD-TMD = BALLISTIC MISSLE DEFENSE SYS TO BE IN PLACE IN ASIA, etc. CIRCA YEAR 2018,+ WOULD LIKE JAPAN + OTHER REGIONAL ALLIES TO TAKE OVER MORE RESPONSIBILITIES AS PER REGIONAL GEOPOLX SECURITY.
CHINA, on its part. believes that the withdrawal or relocation of US Marine units from Okinawa to Guam will INDUCE JAPAN TO SEEK FORMAL DEV AND PROCUREMENT OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS, ESPEC STRATEGIC NUKES + LR MISSLES to complement its new security roles, a scenario which China + other smaller regional States do wish to see become reality given Japan's belligerent actions before and during WW2. CHINA ALSO FEARS A RE-ARMED, NUCLEAR JAPAN WILL OPPOSE OR DELAY ITS RISE TO MANIFEST GLOBAL SUPERPOWER. MODERN DEMOCRATIC JAPAN DESIRES TO PUT WW2 + PRIOR IN THE FORGOTTEN PAST - IMO CHINA ISN'T READY FOR THAT STEP BUT ALSO REALIZES ITS RISE TO NEW GLOBAL LEADERSHIP/POSITION WILL BE HINDERED IFF THE COLD WAR DYNAMIC BETWEEN THE US + JAPAN, etc. DOESN'T CHANGE.
IOW, CHINA WON'T RISE NOR BREAK THE "FIRST ISLAND CHAIN" GEOGRAPHIC BARRIERS UNLESS THE US REDUCES OR WITHDRAWS ITS MIL PRESENCE FROM NORTHEAST ASIA,+ CHINA IS ALSO WILLING TO "TOLERATE" A CERTAIN DEGREE OF SOVEREIGN JAPANESE NUCLEAR OR STRATEGIC MIL RE-ARMAMENT, in consequence of saidsame US redux or withdrawal of forces.
Not unlike the US-World, can CHINA per se accept a NUCLEAR-ARMED JAPAN [benchmark Year 2050]? Can China accept the risk of NOT seeing its "global superpower" manifest destiny turn true until Year 2100 or time after?
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