Gilmore's undoing

In the letter "Republicans, unite" , Maywood L. Wilson claims the cause of Republican Jim Gilmore's unsuccessful bid for election to the U.S. Senate was caused by the failure of Republicans to "stick together." ...

[TidewaterLiberta rian]

Governor Gilmore, like President Bush (and former Senators George Allen and John Warner), seem to believe that you can lower taxes and increase spending with no adverse consequences.

None of them has acknowledged their error.

[The Egg Man]

TidewaterLibertarian wrote:

Governor Gilmore, like President Bush (and former Senators George Allen and John Warner), seem to believe that you can lower taxes and increase spending with no adverse consequences.
None of them has acknowledged their error.

It was best summed up by Robert Heinlein in his book "The Moon Is A Harsh Mistress", when he began using the acronym TANSTAAFL, which stood for "There Ain't No Such Thing As A Free Lunch". Everything comes with a price tag of some form, and that's your guide to whether or not something is worth having or doing. The Virginia GOP has been promising "free lunch" for about a decade now, and then pointing fingers at anyone who dares ask what the cost is.

On the other hand, if it wasn't for Gilmore and his wacky version of the free lunch program, there never would have been a need for Mark Warner to run for Governor to take a business approach to things and fix the books. I guess we can thank him for that accidental bit of fortune.

TANSTAAFL.

[WTT]

Sarah Palin cost Gilmore the election.

[The Egg Man]

WTT wrote:

Sarah Palin cost Gilmore the election.

Naah. SHe might have helped to drag McCain down soewhat, but Gilmore's drubbing at the hands of Mark Warner had nothing to do with her. If anything, Gilmore being on the ballot in the Senate race may have cost McCain/Palin Virginia' electoral votes.

[Scribe]

The Egg Man wrote:

<quoted text>It was best summed up by Robert Heinlein in his book "The Moon Is A Harsh Mistress", when he began using the acronym TANSTAAFL, which stood for "There Ain't No Such Thing As A Free Lunch". Everything comes with a price tag of some form, and that's your guide to whether or not something is worth having or doing. The Virginia GOP has been promising "free lunch" for about a decade now, and then pointing fingers at anyone who dares ask what the cost is.
On the other hand, if it wasn't for Gilmore and his wacky version of the free lunch program, there never would have been a need for Mark Warner to run for Governor to take a business approach to things and fix the books. I guess we can thank him for that accidental bit of fortune.
TANSTAAFL.

This book looks like a must read. Thanks.

[The Egg Man]

Scribe wrote:

<quoted text>
This book looks like a must read. Thanks.

WIth the possible exception of his last few books, when I think he was going senile and got a bit goofy, most Robert Heinlein is worth a good read. The characters are fascinating and so much of his "future history" is based on actual history (or current events at the time) that he is able to make some interesting parallels.

[Downtown Hpt]

It was less about Gilmore than it was about beating Warner. It just wasn't going to happen. Warner was a popular governor.

[Fairness]

Mr. Baumgartner, you had me until the statement "Warner, on the other hand, after Gilmore's debacle, left Virginia the most financially sound state in the nation." Warner "cooked the books" and left the mess to Kaine, how else did we all-of-a-sudden have a deficit.
However, I do agree with TidewaterLibertarian's assesment that Virginia "Republicans" are apparently "tax-and-spend" Democrats in disguise.

BTW, haven't read Heinlein in quite a few years, It's a good time for me to go back and re-read...

[Drew]

Fairness, The reason we have an all-of-a-sudden deficit is not because of cooked books, it's because the economy as a whole has taken a downturn. When business revenue and housing values plummit then so goes the ability for taxation. The state isn't able to receive the same level of tax revenue as it is when the economy is steaming along.

[Fairness]

Drew wrote:

Fairness, The reason we have an all-of-a-sudden deficit is not because of cooked books, it's because the economy as a whole has taken a downturn. When business revenue and housing values plummit then so goes the ability for taxation. The state isn't able to receive the same level of tax revenue as it is when the economy is steaming along.

Doesn't happen that quick and that easy. The tax on housing values isn't felt until the next year. While this may account for a small percentage, it is not the overall picture. Face it, Virginia's fiscal picture wasn't as "rosy" as Warner (and the press) painted it.
My brother-in-law is a finance major and the running joke in the circle is:
Manager - "I need you to run me a report."
Accountant - "What do want the result of the report to read?"!

[Downtown Hpt]

I agree that Warner's budget wasn't nearly as rosy as they would have you believe but I also believe that luck has everything to do with whether you are successful or not. Look at Clinton. He sat on his butt for 8 years and things just hummed along. No international crisis, no economic malaise. I could see the economy starting to sag in his last 6 months in office and then Georgie came in and it just went to hell. Timing is everything. Kaine is a good example of that. What separates him from Warner?? Timing.

[Drew]

Fairness wrote:

<quoted text>
Doesn't happen that quick and that easy. The tax on housing values isn't felt until the next year. While this may account for a small percentage, it is not the overall picture. Face it, Virginia's fiscal picture wasn't as "rosy" as Warner (and the press) painted it.
My brother-in-law is a finance major and the running joke in the circle is:
Manager - "I need you to run me a report."
Accountant - "What do want the result of the report to read?"!

Housing Values may be felt the next year; however, the fall of in the sales of taxable goods is felt almost imidiately. Virginia collects sales tax from businesses every month. When people stop buying a vicious circle of loss revenue, loss in jobs, which only increases the losses in revenue. Also, if you look at when the housing market fell. It started over a year ago, so it would be this budget cycle that it would affect.

That joke isn't only in financial circles. It can be said for any statistical analysis that any profession could run. A poll or a statistic can be manipulated to show the desired outcome for anything.

[The Egg Man]

Fairness wrote:

Doesn't happen that quick and that easy. The tax on housing values isn't felt until the next year. While this may account for a small percentage, it is not the overall picture. Face it, Virginia's fiscal picture wasn't as "rosy" as Warner (and the press) painted it.
My brother-in-law is a finance major and the running joke in the circle is:
Manager - "I need you to run me a report."
Accountant - "What do want the result of the report to read?"!

While I can appreciate your skepticism, you need to know a few things befpore you get too deep into this one.

-- First of all, the primary generator of funds for the state is the sales tax, which is submitted by the businesses that collect the tax on a monthly or quarterly basis.

-- The other major income generator for the state is the income tax. While you may file your personal income tax returns on an annual basis, the actual taxes being paid (withheld from your paycheck) are submitted to the state also on a monthly or quarterly basis.

-- The tax on housing is a local tax, so that has no effect whatsoever on the state's fiscal situation.

It is a provision of Virginia's Constitution, thanks to an ammendment that was overwhelmingly passed in the mid-1980s, that the state budget be passed every two years and that it be balanced (anticipated revenues and expenditures being the same). There is a provision for a very small "rainy day fund", but it is insignificant in the grand scheme of things. All revenues accounted for in the budget are "anticipated" revenues - a best-guess prediciton of economic performance over a two-year cycle. Since the revenue stream can be meausred very accurately on a quarterly basis, it is easy to tell in a very timely manner how accurate the predictions are. When demonstrably more or less money is coming in than expected, the legislature can ammend the budget or adjust the tax rates. Or they can sell bonds (in effect, borrow the money). Either way, the state Constitution demands that the state's books be balanced by the end of the budget cycle. Historically, whether the powers that be are Democrats or Republicans, Virginia has loathed excessive state debt, making the bond option a last resort. I'm not sure whether or not it is dictated by the Cosntitution, but usually bonds must be approved by a referrendum that we all get a chance to vote on. What are you left with? A fiscally sound state with minimal debt that can sometimes be adversely affected when the national or regional economy has a dramatic shift. Believe you me, we could be in much worse shape. At least Virginia is set up to where it leaves itself with the ability to adjust as is necessary, unlike other states that have a large part of their budget tied up in debt service.

[SPAM]

The Egg Man wrote:

<quoted text>While I can appreciate your skepticism, you need to know a few things befpore you get too deep into this one.
-- First of all, the primary generator of funds for the state is the sales tax, which is submitted by the businesses that collect the tax on a monthly or quarterly basis.
-- The other major income generator for the state is the income tax. While you may file your personal income tax returns on an annual basis, the actual taxes being paid (withheld from your paycheck) are submitted to the state also on a monthly or quarterly basis.
-- The tax on housing is a local tax, so that has no effect whatsoever on the state's fiscal situation.
It is a provision of Virginia's Constitution, thanks to an ammendment that was overwhelmingly passed in the mid-1980s, that the state budget be passed every two years and that it be balanced (anticipated revenues and expenditures being the same). There is a provision for a very small "rainy day fund", but it is insignificant in the grand scheme of things. All revenues accounted for in the budget are "anticipated" revenues - a best-guess prediciton of economic performance over a two-year cycle. Since the revenue stream can be meausred very accurately on a quarterly basis, it is easy to tell in a very timely manner how accurate the predictions are. When demonstrably more or less money is coming in than expected, the legislature can ammend the budget or adjust the tax rates. Or they can sell bonds (in effect, borrow the money). Either way, the state Constitution demands that the state's books be balanced by the end of the budget cycle. Historically, whether the powers that be are Democrats or Republicans, Virginia has loathed excessive state debt, making the bond option a last resort. I'm not sure whether or not it is dictated by the Cosntitution, but usually bonds must be approved by a referrendum that we all get a chance to vote on. What are you left with? A fiscally sound state with minimal debt that can sometimes be adversely affected when the national or regional economy has a dramatic shift. Believe you me, we could be in much worse shape. At least Virginia is set up to where it leaves itself with the ability to adjust as is necessary, unlike other states that have a large part of their budget tied up in debt service.

OK, I stand corrected.
However I still stand by my original concept, that figures can be manipulated.
I don't believe that Warner is a bad guy, I just don't believe he's the "fair-haired child" that the press portrays him as.
Part skill, part luck, part good PR...

[Fairness]

Ooops, forgot to switch monikers...

[The Egg Man]

Fairness wrote:

Ooops, forgot to switch monikers...

LOL! That's not Fair!:-)

[Jack]

Who's Gilmore?

[The Egg Man]

Jack wrote:

Who's Gilmore?

He plays guitar for Pink Floyd.

[Sucker Free Now]

All you people are suckers for living in Virginia. I recently moved from the peninsula to Alabama. Here's a comparision:

VA property tax:$2800
VA car tax/reg:$1600
AL property tax:$900 (for a house assessed at twice the value)
AL car tax/reg:$300

Income tax rates are also slghtly less in AL.

What am I missing as far as services go from the lower taxes in AL? Nothing!!! Unless you're on medicaid or gov't assistance, you're not losing out on anything. The roads are nicer with fewer potholes and far less traffic; city gov't is smaller; there is less crowding. Fewer police are needed because crime is not rampant as it is on the peninsula

Why would anyone want to continue living in VA???So when the VA politicians keep crowing they need more money, remember you are all getting ripped off!

[Fairness]

Sucker Free Now wrote:

All you people are suckers for living in Virginia. I recently moved from the peninsula to Alabama. Here's a comparision:
VA property tax:$2800
VA car tax/reg:$1600
AL property tax:$900 (for a house assessed at twice the value)
AL car tax/reg:$300
Income tax rates are also slghtly less in AL.
What am I missing as far as services go from the lower taxes in AL? Nothing!!! Unless you're on medicaid or gov't assistance, you're not losing out on anything. The roads are nicer with fewer potholes and far less traffic; city gov't is smaller; there is less crowding. Fewer police are needed because crime is not rampant as it is on the peninsula
Why would anyone want to continue living in VA???So when the VA politicians keep crowing they need more money, remember you are all getting ripped off!

We sure will miss you....