Love not surprised by racist mail

[downhill246]

2004
In the 2004 presidential election, "Rasmussen...beat most of their human competitors in the battleground states, often by large margins," according to Slate magazine. Rasmussen projected the 2004 presidential results within one percentage point of the actual vote totals earned by both George W. Bush and John Kerry.

In 2004, Slate said they “publicly doubted and privately derided Rasmussen” polls because of the methodology. However, after the election, they concluded that Rasmussen’s polls were the most accurate.

Saletan, William. "Let's Go to the Audiotape Who nailed the election results? Automated pollsters. Slate.com Thursday, Dec. 9, 2004". Slate.com . Retrieved 2012-03-26.^ a b Caddell, Patrick (2010-01-14). "Don't Shoot The Pollster, Wall Street Journal, January 14, 2010". Wall Street Journal. Retrieved 2012-03-26.

[barefoot2626]

downhill246 wrote:

<quoted text>
Poll Accuracy in the 2008 Presidential Election

November 4, 2010
November 4, 2010
November 4, 2010
November 4, 2010
By NATE SILVER
Every election cycle has its winners and losers: not just the among the candidates, but also the pollsters.

On Tuesday, polls conducted by the firm Rasmussen Reports — which released more than 100 surveys in the final three weeks of the campaign, including some commissioned under a subsidiary on behalf of Fox News — badly missed the margin in many states, and also exhibited a considerable bias toward Republican candidates.

Other polling firms, like SurveyUSA and Quinnipiac University, produced more reliable results in Senate and gubernatorial races.
A firm that conducts surveys by Internet, YouGov, also performed relatively well.

What follows is a preliminary analysis of polls released to the public in the final 21 days of the campaign. Our process here is quite simple: we’ve taken all such polls in our database, and assessed how accurate they were, on average, in predicting the margin separating the two leading candidates in each race. For instance, a poll that had the Democrat winning by 2 percentage points in a race where the Republican actually won by 4 would have an error of 6 points.

We’ve also assessed whether a company’s polls consistently missed in either a Democratic or Republican direction — that is, whether they were biased. The hypothetical poll I just described would have had a 6 point Democratic bias, for instance.

The analysis covers all polls issued by firms in the final three weeks of the campaign, even if a company surveyed a particular state multiple times. In our view, this provides for a more comprehensive analysis than focusing solely on a firm’s final poll in each state, since polling has a tendency to converge in the final days of the campaign, perhaps because some firms fear that their results are an outlier and adjust them accordingly.
(clip)
PS: your poll of poll accuracy doesn't top mine.

[barefoot2626]

downhill246 wrote:

2004
In the 2004 presidential election,

It's 2012.

[harvey]

just another guy wrote:

<quoted text>
You have to wonder how many decks of race cards they gave harv for signing up. Maybe he is a memeber of the "Race Card of the Day Club". It must keep his UPS guy hopping.

How HILARIOUS that you post a whine about me "playing the race card" to a post which ITSELF plays the race card. ARe you this stupid, or do you just not read the posts you answer?

LOL...

[harvey]

downhill246 wrote:

<quoted text>
It is available online and if it is an Obama double than the Secret Service has a problem.

Sadly that proves nothing. Dismissed.

[harvey]

Le Jimbo wrote:

<quoted text>It shows he never had any intention of unifying the country. The racecard was his foundation and defense at the same time.

He's done his best to unify this country, while racists and haters like you divide it. You live by your lies, let's hope you die by them too someday.

[harvey]

Le Jimbo wrote:

...blah, blah, blah....A day after the Obama campaign countered Mitt Romney's strong debate performance by accusing him of playing fast and loose with the facts, President Obama threw out a doozy of his own.
Obama caught lying again during debate.......

Mittens has been PROVEN to have lied throughout the debate, you lying coward. He lied TEN TIMES about Obama "taking money from Medicare," and added lies about his tax plans.

Obama's failure was in not counterattacking these lies. He'll have to do better next time and put this punk in his place.

[harvey]

Vance1 wrote:

<quoted text>
Amen Harv is the worst of the worst.
Put in his poor poor victim trailer park food stamp life, its all he has to hold onto

This from a sad, beaten old teabagger retired in Sun City, sucking down government checks and Medicare while hating on the very same government and talking big.

LOL

Is anyone here a bigger LOSER than you, Vanceline?:)

[serfs up]

harvey wrote:

<quoted text>
This from a sad, beaten old teabagger retired in Sun City, sucking down government checks and Medicare while hating on the very same government and talking big.
LOL
Is anyone here a bigger LOSER than you, Vanceline?:)

Harvey, what are lies? What are half truths? I don't know Vance. but if he is a senior citizen like you wrote he most likely paid 15% of his income in taxes to the government just for social security and medicare. Paid for it day after day, week after week, month after month, year after year and decade after decade. And impressive amount of time. So then you come along and say he is sucking on the tit after all of these payments. Vance has a right to his statements. During his younger years if so inclined, no one listened to him about potential problems. When the nation was expanding, people grumbled but paid the increases in taxes as the government kept ballooning in size. Of course when it contracted it kept ballooning in size. We have the choice of two men to elect for president and countless others in lower positions. All from two parties. We take what they say as gospel before the election and the lies that occur after it. The government taxes us, fines us, has fees in everything including our utilities and other things and there are a lot of people who make a good living off of it. Government contracts and work rules and massive fraud in everything under the sun. So now, the people who paid in are the targets of a bloated government and will reap the wrath of an electorate that will double and more the next 15 years. They will be served first when this is finished. Of course we could stop paying for them. But then the foreign nations will produce the endless amount of NAZI movies we do in the future. People yelled and screamed. Called haters and the such. The nation is in decline with the seniors doubling in size. Do the math. The thing is. As I get older I have no guilt. Not anymore. Not after all of the corruption we as a people let become part of our lives.

[downhill246]

barefoot2626 wrote:

<quoted text>
It's 2012.

Good!! I knew by Oct. you would figure the year out.

[downhill246]

harvey wrote:

<quoted text>
Mittens has been PROVEN to have lied throughout the debate, you lying coward. He lied TEN TIMES about Obama "taking money from Medicare," and added lies about his tax plans.
Obama's failure was in not counterattacking these lies. He'll have to do better next time and put this punk in his place.

Obama's biggest failure is Obama. Under Obama's stagnant economic policies, Obama made $900,000 less in 2011 than he did in 2010. LOL

18,000 manufacturing jobs were lost in Sept making that a total of 38,000 for the past two months. There are over 500,000 manufacturing jobs "missing" under his watch. If Obama believes 650,000 part time hamburger flippers are the answer to America's woes he will be in for a great disappointment because his fast food economy won't cut it.

[downhill246]

harvey wrote:

<quoted text>
Sadly that proves nothing. Dismissed.

You probably meant to say dismiss Obama.

[downhill246]

barefoot2626 wrote:

<quoted text>
November 4, 2010
November 4, 2010
November 4, 2010
November 4, 2010
By NATE SILVER
Every election cycle has its winners and losers: not just the among the candidates, but also the pollsters.
On Tuesday, polls conducted by the firm Rasmussen Reports — which released more than 100 surveys in the final three weeks of the campaign, including some commissioned under a subsidiary on behalf of Fox News — badly missed the margin in many states, and also exhibited a considerable bias toward Republican candidates.
Other polling firms, like SurveyUSA and Quinnipiac University, produced more reliable results in Senate and gubernatorial races.
A firm that conducts surveys by Internet, YouGov, also performed relatively well.
What follows is a preliminary analysis of polls released to the public in the final 21 days of the campaign. Our process here is quite simple: we’ve taken all such polls in our database, and assessed how accurate they were, on average, in predicting the margin separating the two leading candidates in each race. For instance, a poll that had the Democrat winning by 2 percentage points in a race where the Republican actually won by 4 would have an error of 6 points.
We’ve also assessed whether a company’s polls consistently missed in either a Democratic or Republican direction — that is, whether they were biased. The hypothetical poll I just described would have had a 6 point Democratic bias, for instance.
The analysis covers all polls issued by firms in the final three weeks of the campaign, even if a company surveyed a particular state multiple times. In our view, this provides for a more comprehensive analysis than focusing solely on a firm’s final poll in each state, since polling has a tendency to converge in the final days of the campaign, perhaps because some firms fear that their results are an outlier and adjust them accordingly.
(clip)
PS: your poll of poll accuracy doesn't top mine.

Unless I read it wrong,your Nate Silver stats shows a 12.5% drop in electoral votes since Sept 30 for Obama. Another 12.5% drop and Obama is not elected.

[barefoot2626]

downhill246 wrote:

<quoted text>
Unless I read it wrong,your Nate Silver stats shows a 12.5%

I am not going to teach you math.

I can add up to 270.

You can't.

[downhill246]

barefoot2626 wrote:

<quoted text>
I am not going to teach you math.
I can add up to 270.
You can't.

But these two professors can add up to 270 and a bit beyond.

Election Model That Has Never Been Wrong Predicts Romney Will Win Election

October 8, 2012

http://lonelyconservative.com/2012/10/electio...

[Vance1]

Le Jimbo wrote:

<quoted text>How do you expect the to find the short bus with out mapquest.

Indeed so true

Obama hoping 50% want to be dependent on government and a moocher.

[Brad]

downhill246 wrote:

<quoted text>
But these two professors can add up to 270 and a bit beyond.
Election Model That Has Never Been Wrong Predicts Romney Will Win Election
October 8, 2012
http://lonelyconservative.com/2012/10/electio...

Vegas has a line on everything and they're not in the business of losing.
I wonder what they got it at?

[barefoot2626]

Vance1 wrote:

<quoted text>
Indeed so true
Obama hoping 50% want to be dependent on government and a moocher.

Don't worry, Vince, your food stamps are safe as long as you have a bigoted tea bagger as governor in the most racist state in the USA.

[barefoot2626]

downhill246 wrote:

<quoted text>
But these two professors can add up to 270

Americans are more interested in real numbers, darling, not the fantasies of tea baggers who still insist Obama was born in Kenya.

[barefoot2626]

downhill246 wrote:

<quoted text>
Obama's biggest failure is Obama.

Romney's biggest failure is Romney.

He has been running for President for over five years and he still can't get HALF the people in the USA to *like* him.

One needs a spreadsheet to know exactly where Romney stands on any issue at any particular moment in time.

He has had FIVE positions on abortion, for example.

Best of luck as his most recent position violates the woman's right to choose.