October Surprise: 2012 Sino-Japanese War Edition
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#1 Sep 16, 2012
Historically, Japan's post-WW2 JMSDF has been one the region's [+ world's] strongest, while conversely China's PLAN has been one of the weakest - it will likely be many more years yet before China can par or surpass Japan's naval position.
The above is one of the reasons why I believe China may attempt to use its Nuclear Weapons in any, hopefully limited, military conflict wid Japan oer control + sovereignty of the Senkaku islands [China = Diaoyus/Tiaoyutai]. Another is that many mainstream Japanese support revision of that country's postwar Constitution, including but not limited to Articles renouncing war as well as Japan being allowed to legally develop andor procure Nuclear Weapons on its own.
All things equal, this may be "post-US", self-perceived "future World #1" Rising China best opportunity to FINALLY-N-PERMANENTLY settle any and all of its outstanding sovereignty issues in the East China Sea and South China Sea vee disputed islands, WHILE IT CAN BEFORE JAPAN + ASEAN, ETC. NATIONS GO NUCLEAR.
In reality, these island disputes are about China's self-perceived "Manifest Destiny" vee the "weak/declining" US global supeprower, and achieving vital strategic access into WESTPAC + other far PACOAS in support of same. China has linked the success or failure of its "Manifest Destiny" to its formal reunification wid TAIWAN - IT WANTS BOTH THE DIAYOS AND OKINAWA ISLANDS TO GUARD THE AIR-SEA APPROACHES TO AND FROM ITS FUTURE MILBASES ON TAIWAN.
CHINA SUPPORTS BOTH AN INDEPENDENT OKINAWA, OR IN LESSOR AN OKINAWA THAT IS MOSTLY AUTONOMOUS FROM TOKYO IN IMPORTANT PRO-CHINA ASPECTS, I.E. PORT RIGHTS FOR THE PLA, PLAN AND PLAAF, AND FOR ECONOMIC TRADE.
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