Another Warmist Meme Bites The Dust: ...

Another Warmist Meme Bites The Dust: Ocean Warming Decelerates By 50%

There are 9 comments on the Gateway Pundit story from Oct 8, 2013, titled Another Warmist Meme Bites The Dust: Ocean Warming Decelerates By 50%. In it, Gateway Pundit reports that:

The currently-favored excuse du jour for no statistically-significant global warming over the past 20 years is that the oceans "ate the man-made global warming."

Join the discussion below, or Read more at Gateway Pundit.

SpaceBlues

Humble, TX

#1 Oct 8, 2013
BUMMER: The Right IS WRONG.

Stage 2: Deny We're the Cause

Once people move beyond denying that the problem exists, they often move to the next stage, denying that we're responsible. John Christy and Roy Spencer took this approach by disputing the accuracy of global climate models in The Daily Mail and The Christian Post, respectively. Spencer was quite explicit about this:

...we deny "that most [current climate change] is human-caused, and that it is a threat to future generations that must be addressed by the global community."

Christy and Spencer made their case by comparing the outputs of 73 climate models to satellite temperature measurements, and showing that the models seemed to predict more warming than has been observed. But the comparison was not of surface temperatures, or of the lowermost layer of the atmosphere, or even any measurement global average temperatures. They specifically looked at measurements of the temperature of the middle troposphere (TMT) in the tropics.

There's certainly nothing wrong with examining this particular subset of temperature data, but it's a bit of an odd choice on the face of it. The real problem lies in the fact that satellite measurements of TMT are highly uncertain. In fact, estimates of the TMT trend by different scientific groups vary wildly, despite using the same raw satellite data.

Another problem is that the stratosphere (the layer of the atmosphere above the troposphere) is cooling an expected consequence of the increased greenhouse effect. But some of the cooling stratosphere bleeds into the TMT data, leading to another cool bias. While there is a discrepancy between model simulations and measurements of tropical troposphere temperatures, it's not clear how much (if any) is due to the models being wrong, and how much is due to errors in the measurements. As a U.S. Climate Change Science Program report co-authored by John Christy concluded,

"This difference between models and observations may arise from errors that are common to all models, from errors in the observational data sets, or from a combination of these factors. The second explanation is favored, but the issue is still open."

However, in mainstream media interviews and editorials, Christy and Spencer always fail to mention the possibility that the problem could lie more in the measurements than the models, which frankly is intellectually dishonest. Additionally, climate models have done very well in projecting long-term global surface temperature changes.
LessHypeMoreFact

Etobicoke, Canada

#2 Oct 8, 2013
"Although the Challenger data set covers only some 300 temperature soundings (measurements from the sea surface down to the deep ocean) around the world, the information sets a baseline for temperature change in the world's oceans, which are now sampled continuously through Argo's unprecedented global coverage. Nearly 3,500 free-drifting profiling Argo floats each collect a temperature profile every 10 days."

Two problems with this stuff.

1: the low warming value is stupid. The oceans are gaining thermal energy from AGW. But, because of the their high heat capacity (4 times an equal weight of air) and high thermal mass (several orders of magnitude greater than the atmosphere) the actual TEMPERATURE change per unit of time is much lower. But the thermal energy does come OUT of the oceans to heat the air so a very small change in ocean surface temperature can lead to much larger change in the average AIR temperature.

2: The 'baseline data is very very sparse, and reading a thermometer to .001C is impossible. The baseline is VERY NOISY and conclusions draw from it are very speculative. It also doesn't account for changes in currents driven by AGW, so a spot that WAS cool may now be warmed more by currents that were not even measured in the 1800's.

This is weak science. Interesting but NOT a paper to take as 'solid' and equal to the MASSIVE database of papers in the IPCC.

Since: Apr 08

"the green troll"

#5 Oct 8, 2013
SpaceBlues wrote:
BUMMER: The Right IS WRONG.
In this case stupidly and embarrassingly wrong.
LessHypeMoreFact

Etobicoke, Canada

#6 Oct 8, 2013
Fair Game wrote:
<quoted text>
In this case stupidly and embarrassingly wrong.
Not so much wrong and reaching well beyond the data.

OHH, You mean the denialists that are trying to sell this as 'the final solution'? They are just idiots. Try talking to one about filtering and Nyquist limits. They don't even recognise that they are totally out of their depth.

Since: Apr 08

"the green troll"

#7 Oct 9, 2013
LessHypeMoreFact wrote:
<quoted text>
Not so much wrong and reaching well beyond the data.
OHH, You mean the denialists that are trying to sell this as 'the final solution'? They are just idiots. Try talking to one about filtering and Nyquist limits. They don't even recognise that they are totally out of their depth.
The original paper is right: the oceans have warmed and they have been warming over a period of a century or more.

The denier blog interpretation of the paper is entirely wrong: the numbers actually say warming has accelerated not decelerated.
Cordwainer Trout

Lexington, KY

#8 Oct 9, 2013
Study finds global ocean warming has decelerated 50% over the past 50 years.
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2013/10/stu...

As the politically motivate Topix posters above show, they will go to any length to deny reality, including construction of false psychologies in attempt to intimidate real science.
LessHypeMoreFact

Etobicoke, Canada

#9 Oct 9, 2013
Cordwainer Trout wrote:
Study finds global ocean warming has decelerated 50% over the past 50 years.
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2013/10/stu...
As the politically motivate Topix posters above show, they will go to any length to deny reality, including construction of false psychologies in attempt to intimidate real science.
I have already shown that this paper is going far beyond the data. You are starting to sound a little hysterical and certainly are a bit pathetic. You do not have to take EVERY opportunity to make a fool of yourself.

Since: Apr 08

"the green troll"

#10 Oct 9, 2013
Trout Brain wrote:
Study finds global ocean warming has decelerated 50% over the past 50 years.
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2013/10/stu...
As the politically motivate Topix posters above show, they will go to any length to deny reality, including construction of false psychologies in attempt to intimidate real science.
This is not real science.

It's a blog.

Whose author does not understand basic maths.

Since: Apr 08

"the green troll"

#11 Oct 10, 2013
Fair Game wrote:
<quoted text>
This is not real science.
It's a blog.
Whose author does not understand basic maths.
I take that back: when the basic error in his maths was pointed out to him in the comments, he admitted that the numbers actually show "an acceleration".

Meanwhile, the blog post has been reposted by countless right wing blogs and political websites, who didn't notice that it's completely wrong, including:

http://www.climatedepot.com/2013/10/08/study-...

and

http://www.thegwpf.org/global-ocean-warming-d...

I wonder if they will take down their reposts or point out the error in them?

Nah.

This will be spammed round the internet by idiots who don't realise how stupid it is and don't care to check.

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