Changes seen in Maine on gay marriage...

Changes seen in Maine on gay marriage since vote

There are 30 comments on the Boston.com story from Feb 25, 2012, titled Changes seen in Maine on gay marriage since vote. In it, Boston.com reports that:

Gay marriage advocates say much has changed since 2009 when Mainers overturned a law legalizing same-sex marriage.

Join the discussion below, or Read more at Boston.com.

First Prev
of 2
Next Last

“WAY TO GO”

Since: Mar 11

IRELAND

#1 Feb 25, 2012
I believe that things have probably change enough in Maine that a positive vote could happen.......and I believe that the anti-gay marriage folks aren't really happy about that.

Now, will it lead to Maine joining the Marriage Equality train......we will know soon enough......until that time, the fight will be on!!!!
Mags

Soumagne, Belgium

#2 Feb 26, 2012
Maine is an island in the land of banning same-sex marriages; Canada to the north has legalized SSM, most of the New England states as well. It's not if Maine will sanction SSM, but when.

Since: Jan 12

New Port Richey, FL

#3 Feb 26, 2012
If Maine gains marriage equality in the upcoming election it will be first time it has passed from popular vote. I don't see this happening because people are to easily led by hand into the lies promoted by opposing churches and a heavily funded NOM. Until DOMA has been removed and states are forced to comply the places we now have rights in will be all were going to get for some time to come.

“Headed toward the cliff”

Since: Nov 07

Tawas City, Michigan

#4 Feb 26, 2012
disaster in the making wrote:
If Maine gains marriage equality in the upcoming election it will be first time it has passed from popular vote. I don't see this happening because people are to easily led by hand into the lies promoted by opposing churches and a heavily funded NOM. Until DOMA has been removed and states are forced to comply the places we now have rights in will be all were going to get for some time to come.
While it's possible we don't win any of the referendum votes this year- Maine, Washington, Maryland, North Carolina, & Minnesota- I think you're being too pessimistic about our chances. Every poll ever done over the past 2 decades shows a steady increase in support for marriage equality. In general we're gaining 1%-2% support per year. Considering the last states to vote in '08 & '09 (CA & ME respectively) we only lost by 4%, it's very likely we're at the tipping point now. I agree that it's all about turnout, but that also works in our favor this year.

In addition, states such as Illinois, Hawaii, Delaware, & Rhode Island are likely to pass marriage equality legislatively in the next year or two.

I agree that many states will have to be forced by the courts to allow marriage for same-sex couples, but a more realistic assessment is we get around 15 states total by 2015 or 2016 and get DOMA overturned in the meantime. THEN we'll likely have to wait for the right court case to get to the right SCOTUS.

That's just my opinion.

Since: Jan 12

New Port Richey, FL

#5 Feb 26, 2012
WeTheSheeple wrote:
<quoted text>
While it's possible we don't win any of the referendum votes this year- Maine, Washington, Maryland, North Carolina, & Minnesota- I think you're being too pessimistic about our chances. Every poll ever done over the past 2 decades shows a steady increase in support for marriage equality. In general we're gaining 1%-2% support per year. Considering the last states to vote in '08 & '09 (CA & ME respectively) we only lost by 4%, it's very likely we're at the tipping point now. I agree that it's all about turnout, but that also works in our favor this year.
In addition, states such as Illinois, Hawaii, Delaware, & Rhode Island are likely to pass marriage equality legislatively in the next year or two.
I agree that many states will have to be forced by the courts to allow marriage for same-sex couples, but a more realistic assessment is we get around 15 states total by 2015 or 2016 and get DOMA overturned in the meantime. THEN we'll likely have to wait for the right court case to get to the right SCOTUS.
That's just my opinion.
the biggest flaw in these polls are there mostly people whom though may be registered but don't get out and vote

“WAY TO GO”

Since: Mar 11

IRELAND

#6 Feb 26, 2012
I'm Sorry Disaster in the making, but I believe we can and probably will gain at least one state through the referendum vote this year......it will more than likely be Washington, with that being said.......Maine just might surprise us all........win 2 this year and that will be a huge blow to NOM and the Anti-Gay side..........Maine was close in 2009.......and though I don't trust polls because they can be manipulated.......the fact is that people have changed and that will show!!!!

I mean all one has to do is look at the numbers for Prop 22 in 2000 and the numbers for Prop 8 in 2008........there was a significant difference and though that was in 8 years.......time may have shifted opinions enough in 3 years!!!

I am hopeful in both Washington and Maine......but I am realistically cautious as well.......we will know if attitudes have truly changed after Election Day.

Oh and the article talked about a shift to a more Conservative Maine......I don't believe that.....and I think this Election might see some Republicans getting tossed because of broken promises!!!

“Headed toward the cliff”

Since: Nov 07

Tawas City, Michigan

#7 Feb 26, 2012
disaster in the making wrote:
<quoted text>
the biggest flaw in these polls are there mostly people whom though may be registered but don't get out and vote
That depends on the polling organization, some are better than others at polling likely voters. Some polls very accurately predicted us losing both Prop 8 in California, and the referendum vote in Maine, while accurately predicting a win on Ref 71 in Washington.

All flaws aside, it doesn't change the overall trend. This is a generational issue more than anything else. Old people vote at a higher percentage than younger voters; unfortunately they're also the only group left with more than 50% opposition to marriage equality. In previous elections- especially nonpresidential election years- people over age 65 made up 2/3rd of the voter turnout and overwhelmed any pro-equality voters. That trend is quickly coming to an end because 1.5 MILLION of them die every year, and are being replaced by the next generation which supports marriage equality.

Be patient; by the end of the decade the anti-gays won't be able to win a single vote outside the deep south.
mainelygay

Augusta, ME

#8 Feb 26, 2012
Bob Emrich seems to be talking out of his nether regions! The two statements he made in this article are falsehoods. First, Maine is not more conservative than three years ago. Although the Republicans won majorities in the House and Senate it was the sweep that most states felt in 2010. It had little to do with Marriage Equality. The Republican governor won by only 30 some percent! 2/3rds of the population did not vote for him. A split vote between a popular Democrat and a popular Independent (both supporting Marriage Equality) let him get in. He has turned out to be very unpopular and at times an embarrassment to the state. I believe Republicans will loose some of their slots in 2012. Secondly, Mr Emerich says people were voted out of office for their stand on Marriage Equality. I don't know of a single person who was voted out for that reason!

Maine and Mainers have changed much since 2009 apparently this has all slipped by Mr Emerich.

Oh, and younger people also have not gotten more conservative.
Duped no more

Lewes, DE

#9 Feb 26, 2012
Just one win, just one, would take the wind out of the sails of Brian Brown's constantly uttered talking point ("every time gay marriage is put to a vote, it is defeated" - "31 times out of 31" - etc.).

Since: Jan 12

New Port Richey, FL

#10 Feb 26, 2012
I truly hope your all right, I'm just looking at it from a what happen in the other 31 states that that had it on ballets

“Headed toward the cliff”

Since: Nov 07

Tawas City, Michigan

#11 Feb 26, 2012
disaster in the making wrote:
I truly hope your all right, I'm just looking at it from a what happen in the other 31 states that that had it on ballets
You obviously prefer being a pessimist, but look at what happened in California as an example. In 2000 they voted 61%-39% to ban gays from marrying. In 2008 they could only get 52%-48%. Even though they won in '08, they lost 9% points in just 8 years. Is there any reason to believe that trend isn't continuing?

Most bans were passed in the wake of the hysteria over Massachusetts in '04 & '06. Much has changed since then.

“Headed toward the cliff”

Since: Nov 07

Tawas City, Michigan

#12 Feb 26, 2012
There is another significant difference between '09 and '12 in Maine- the '09 vote was a non-election year. That means voter turnout was lower and older than normal. Only 55% of registered voters turned out to vote in '09, compared to 75% in normal presidential election years.

The electorate in non-presidential years is heavily skewed toward more older voters, which means a greater percentage of the voters are anti-gay.
mainelygay

Augusta, ME

#13 Feb 26, 2012
WeTheSheeple wrote:
There is another significant difference between '09 and '12 in Maine- the '09 vote was a non-election year. That means voter turnout was lower and older than normal. Only 55% of registered voters turned out to vote in '09, compared to 75% in normal presidential election years.
The electorate in non-presidential years is heavily skewed toward more older voters, which means a greater percentage of the voters are anti-gay.
You are exactly right and this is why Maine took the reins and got it put on the ballot now.

Another thing that has happened since the last vote is the man who ran the repeal effort for the Catholic Diocese has since publicly apologized for his part and for allowing NOM to send in high powered people who ran the campaign. He said he knew the arguments they were using were lies but he felt helpless to stop them.

Also NOM still has lawsuits in Maine for refusing to reveal their
donors which is required by Maine state law.

By doing the citizens initiative ourselves if this passes no one will be able to stop it. It would be very sweet to pass this with a Republican Governor who wouldn't ever support it but would be forced to institute it. All indications are that this has the support to pass.

“Headed toward the cliff”

Since: Nov 07

Tawas City, Michigan

#14 Feb 27, 2012
mainelygay wrote:
<quoted text>
You are exactly right and this is why Maine took the reins and got it put on the ballot now.
Another thing that has happened since the last vote is the man who ran the repeal effort for the Catholic Diocese has since publicly apologized for his part and for allowing NOM to send in high powered people who ran the campaign. He said he knew the arguments they were using were lies but he felt helpless to stop them.
Also NOM still has lawsuits in Maine for refusing to reveal their
donors which is required by Maine state law.
By doing the citizens initiative ourselves if this passes no one will be able to stop it. It would be very sweet to pass this with a Republican Governor who wouldn't ever support it but would be forced to institute it. All indications are that this has the support to pass.
Let's hope all goes well. I've vacationed in Maine numerous times around the Bangor area and hope to one day make my home there. I'm tempted to move there temporarily just so I can vote on the referendum, since my vote for Obama in Michigan likely won't matter much.

Since: Mar 09

Location hidden

#15 Feb 27, 2012
I'd really like at least ONE overwhelming vote in our favor, and by "overwhelming" I really mean greater than two thirds.

“Together for 24, legal for 5”

Since: Sep 07

Littleton, NH

#16 Feb 27, 2012
disaster in the making wrote:
<quoted text>
the biggest flaw in these polls are there mostly people whom though may be registered but don't get out and vote
Mainers vote in large numbers. In 2009--an off-year election with no major offices up for a vote--60% of registered voters showed up. We would reasonably expect 80-90% of registered voters to show up in November. About 85% of Mainers over 18 are registered to vote. Maine also has very liberal voting laws, including early voting that starts 30 days or more prior to the election. Maine also allows registration the day of the election.

“Headed toward the cliff”

Since: Nov 07

Tawas City, Michigan

#17 Feb 27, 2012
snyper wrote:
I'd really like at least ONE overwhelming vote in our favor, and by "overwhelming" I really mean greater than two thirds.
Now you're just getting greedy!

I'll be happy with 50%+ 1 vote.

“Together for 24, legal for 5”

Since: Sep 07

Littleton, NH

#18 Feb 27, 2012
snyper wrote:
I'd really like at least ONE overwhelming vote in our favor, and by "overwhelming" I really mean greater than two thirds.
Ummm--not going to happen for a long time. I'll take 50%+ 1.

“Together for 24, legal for 5”

Since: Sep 07

Littleton, NH

#19 Feb 27, 2012
WeTheSheeple wrote:
<quoted text>
Let's hope all goes well. I've vacationed in Maine numerous times around the Bangor area and hope to one day make my home there. I'm tempted to move there temporarily just so I can vote on the referendum, since my vote for Obama in Michigan likely won't matter much.
Are you assuming that Romney will get the Republican candidacy and win Michigan in November? I think Michigan is traditionally more purple.

I think Maine looks rather blue this year. Notice the pitifully low turnout at the Republican caucuses. BTW: You're vote for Santorum is more important than ever tomorrow! Get your friends to the polls!

“Together for 24, legal for 5”

Since: Sep 07

Littleton, NH

#20 Feb 27, 2012
WeTheSheeple wrote:
<quoted text>
That depends on the polling organization, some are better than others at polling likely voters. Some polls very accurately predicted us losing both Prop 8 in California, and the referendum vote in Maine, while accurately predicting a win on Ref 71 in Washington.
You are correct about that. I was getting-out-the-vote in Maine on the eve of the election. The leaders of the effort knew that the referendum was succeeding in popular opinion. We exceeded our goals in getting "no" votes to the polls, but the turn-out exceeded all forecasts for an election with no state-wide offices.

In my opinion the other inititives brought out the voters who opposed marriage equality. "Yes on 1" had a very visibile and effective advertising campaign which undoubtedly convinced many voters to approve the Question 1. But I saw no evidence of a get-out-the-vote effort. I think they relied 100% on religious leaders for that.

Also, "No on 1" lacked visibility in rural areas. I don't think our side is likely to repeat that mistake.

Tell me when this thread is updated:

Subscribe Now Add to my Tracker
First Prev
of 2
Next Last

Add your comments below

Characters left: 4000

Please note by submitting this form you acknowledge that you have read the Terms of Service and the comment you are posting is in compliance with such terms. Be polite. Inappropriate posts may be removed by the moderator. Send us your feedback.

Paul LePage Discussions

Title Updated Last By Comments
News What do Maine Republicans want out of their 201... Apr 21 LeDuped 2
News If Beardsley can't survive legislative scrutiny... Apr 19 Lucy Anna Jane 1
News Before there was Trump, there was Paul LePage Mar '16 Gingerich 1
News Maine governor: Drug dealers impregnate 'young ... Jan '16 Batch 37 Pain Is ... 2
News Group of Maine Democrats to Press for Impeachme... Jan '16 Batch 37 Pain Is ... 25
News LePage's racist remarks make it harder to solve... Jan '16 Inquisitor 3
News Governor LePage Issues Emergency Declaration to... Jan '16 longtail 1
More from around the web