3 Reasons Why The Economy Has Done Better Under Democratic Presidents

Posted in the Top Stories Forum

Since: Dec 13

Germany

#1 Dec 29, 2013
Democratic presidents tend to preside over better economies than Republican ones, but that may be down to pure luck, according to a recent paper from Alan Blinder and Mark Watson at Princeton.

Since the end of World War II, the U.S. economy has grown at an average real rate of 4.35% under Democratic presidents and only 2.54% under Republicans. So what gives?

"Democrats would no doubt like to attribute the large D-R growth gap to better macroeconomic policies, but the data do not support such a claim," they write. "It seems we must look instead to several variables that are mostly 'good luck.'"

Three factors can explain 46-62% of the growth gap, according to the paper. Here are the reasons (via James Hamilton):

Oil shocks. With the exception of Jimmy Carter, oil price shocks tend to dog Republican administrations more. The 1956-57 Suez Crisis, early-70s OPEC embargo, 1980 Iran-Iraq War, and the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait in 1990 all happened during Republican administrations.

Productivity. It's hard to say that a U.S. president is responsible here, but Democrats tend to see bigger gains in productivity. Bill Clinton, for example, enjoyed a big boost in U.S. productivity during the 1990s.

Consumer confidence. Consumers tend to have a rosier outlook on the U.S. economy in the first year a Democrat is in the White House. "Yet the superior growth record under Democrats is not forecastable by standard techniques, which means it cannot be attributed to superior initial conditions," they write. Chalk this one up to luck again, but it does come "tantalizingly close to a self-fulfilling prophecy in which consumers correctly expect the economy to do better under Democrats, then make that happen by purchasing more consumer durables."
andet1987

Chicago, IL

#2 Dec 29, 2013
there is only one reason: Pure Luck
pen

Lawson, MO

#3 Dec 29, 2013
It hasn't

Since: May 13

Location hidden

#4 Dec 30, 2013
Luck!?..... what are the chances... pfft

It has... coming out of the recession, and more work is available than before.

Self fulfilling prophecy, yes. Still the work has to be done doesn't it.
haha

Las Vegas, NV

#5 Dec 30, 2013
the further down the drain america goes, the louder the libtard drool and say it getting better.
how retarded can they get?

Since: May 13

Location hidden

#6 Dec 30, 2013
haha wrote:
the further down the drain america goes, the louder the libtard drool and say it getting better.
how retarded can they get?
the further down the line to the successful implementation of a sound economy and a forward thinking America, the more panicked the conservative become.
andet1987

Chicago, IL

#7 Dec 30, 2013
Xetra wrote:
<quoted text>
the further down the line to the successful implementation of a sound economy and a forward thinking America, the more panicked the conservative become.
one way to determine if the economy is improving is being able to save enough money you earned from work or business.

it seems that it is not easy to save a lot of money. the rents and prices keep going up. even if your income or salary is increased, you can not save a lot because the inflation keeps growing too.

that is how bad the current economy is. you end up with no or just a little savings.
Hiram

UK

#8 Dec 31, 2013
haha wrote:
the further down the drain america goes, the louder the libtard drool and say it getting better.
how retarded can they get?
But the libs do not want to admit to the treason their bammy is in.
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