"Your", and I use that term loosely, probability analysis is nonsense.<quoted text>1.The Messiah will be born in Bethlehem (Micah 5:2).
The average population of Bethlehem from the time of Micah to the present (1958) divided by the average population of the earth during the same period = 7,150/2,000,000,000 or 2.8x105.
First, cite your sources. Your source, either directly or indirectly, is a summary by David Reagan of chapter 2 of Peter Stoner's book, Science Speaks: Scientific Proof of the Accuracy of Prophecy and the Bible.
Interestingly enough, Stoner appears to have been a thief, too, having used the work, also without attribution, of George Davis in his book, Fulfilled Prophecies that Prove the Bible. Being a professor at a minor college, he *had* to know better.
Regardless, fulfilling prophesy works only if the events really happened and the prophesy is accurateely interpreted. With respect to the birth of Jesus in Bethlehem, it is a late addition to the gospel narrative designed to allow Jesus to be born in Bethlehem.
The first canonical gospel, Mark, is silent about that dubious story. Matthew's and Luke's authors added it decades later. As Raymond Brown notes with respect to Luke's account:
Minor difficulties [with Lukes narrative] are that there was no single census of the whole Roman Empire under Augustus, and that there is no evidence that the Roman censuses required one to go to one's place of ancestry (unless one had property there). More serious is Luke's connection between the reign of Herod the Great (1:5)[See also Matthew 2] and the census under Quirinius. Herod died in 4.B.C.; Quirinius became governor in Syria and conducted the first roman census in Judea in A.D. 6-7 - and notice it was a census of Judea not of Galilee as Luke assumes.[Also note in] Acts 5:37, Luke mistakenly mentions the revolt of Judas the Galilean (provoked by the census of Quirinius) after the revolt of Theudas which occurred in A.D. 44-46.
-- Raymond E. Brown, Christ in the Gospels of the Liturgical Year (Liturgical Press, 2008), p. 119, n. 2.
Brown was a Catholic priest and a professor at Union Theological Seminary. You can imagine non-believing scholars are even less gentle when it comes to that story. And even the earliest Christian commentators have struggled to make the claims in it fit historical reality.
But forget the historical problems for a moment, the notion that Augustus ordered the mass migration of a whole people for a census and that was follow by Herod's mass slaughter of those folks' toddlers but no historian -- only NT fiction writers -- noticed those events is beyond the pale.
Your other claims fare no better.
So what do you have when you got a false claim Jesus fulfilled prophesy and a claim that that falsity proves something statistically?
You have a high probability that lying (and in this case thieving) Christians were involved.