Scientists Unsure if Climate Change Is to Blame for Hurricane Sandy

Full story: FiveThirtyEight

From the darkened living rooms of Lower Manhattan to the wave-battered shores of Lake Michigan, the question is occurring to millions of people at once: Did the enormous scale and damage from Hurricane Sandy have anything to do with climate change ? Hesitantly, climate scientists offered an answer this week that is likely to satisfy no one, ... (more)

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Since: Dec 07

Navasota, TX

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#1
Oct 31, 2012
 

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Dems push climate change issue in wake of Sandy, but some scientists skeptical!

But scientists say the evidence is far less concrete than the politicians appear to believe.

Martin Hoerling, a meteorologist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said Sandy wasn’t boosted by global warming -- the storm merely revealed natural forces at work.

“Great events can have little causes,” he told the New York Times.“In this case, the immediate cause is most likely little more that the coincidental alignment of a tropical storm with an extratropical storm.”

The New York Times are changing headlines again to suit their liberal autdience. LMAO
litesong

Everett, WA

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#2
Oct 31, 2012
 

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Hurricanes extending & continuing to exist to the far north, like Hurricane Sandy, have occurred in excess of one month earlier in the hurricane season.

Since: Apr 08

"the green troll"

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#3
Nov 1, 2012
 

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A lot more scientists think that climate change made Sandy more damaging. Hoerling is *a* scientist. One against many. "Scientists unsure" is misleading.

Hoerling is a contrarian. He's argued that global warming did not cause the US heat wave or drought either- but the evidence is against him:

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/05/13/4...

The scientific evidence on Sandy is strong:

Warming-driven sea level rise makes storm surges more destructive. In fact, a recent study found “The sea level on a stretch of the US Atlantic coast that features the cities of New York, Norfolk and Boston is rising up to four times faster than the global average.”
“Owing to higher SSTs [sea surface temperatures] from human activities, the increased water vapor in the atmosphere leads to 5 to 10% more rainfall and increases the risk of flooding,” as Kevin Trenberth explained to me in a 2011 email about Hurricane Irene. He elaborates on that point for Sandy here and for all superstorms in this article.
“However, because water vapor and higher ocean temperatures help fuel the storm, it is likely to be more intense and bigger as well,” Trenberth added (see another of his articles here). Relatedly, warming also extends the range of warm SSTs, which can help sustain the strength of a hurricane as it steers on a northerly track into cooler water (much as apparently happened for Irene). September had the second highest global ocean temperatures on record and the Eastern seaboard was 5°F warmer than average (with global warming responsible for about 1°F of that).
The unusual path of the storm — into the heavily populated east coast rather than out to see — was caused by a very strong blocking high pressure system that recent studies have linked to warming. Meteorologist and former Hurricane Hunter Jeff Masters has an excellent analysis of this,“Why did Hurricane Sandy take such an unusual track into New Jersey?“

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/10/31/1...
PHD

Terrell, TX

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Nov 1, 2012
 

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I am generally a fan of linguist George Lakoff’s writing — and cite him at length in my latest book, Language Intelligence: Lessons on Persuasion from Jesus, Shakespeare, Lincoln and Lady Gaga. But I think he gets it wrong with his piece,“Global Warming Systemically Caused Hurricane Sandy.” He asserts “Smoking is a systemic cause of lung cancer. HIV is a systemic cause of AIDS.” Well, yes, but you can’t get AIDS without HIV. You can get hurricanes without global warming. A highly disproportionate and statistically significant number of people who smoke get lung cancer. Again, that simply isn’t analogous to the connection between global warming and Hurricane Sandy.

The answer to the oft-asked question of whether an event is caused by climate change is that it is the wrong question. All weather events are affected by climate change because the environment in which they occur is warmer and moister than it used to be….
SpaceBlues

Houston, TX

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#5
Nov 1, 2012
 

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Climate scientists Charles Greene and Bruce Monger of Cornell University, writing earlier this year in Oceanography, provided evidence that Arctic icemelts linked to global warming contribute to the very atmospheric pattern that sent the frigid burst down across Canada and the eastern U.S.

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-11-...
carpetbaggers

Bryn Mawr, PA

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#6
Nov 1, 2012
 

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Climate change?-huh

In the scope of things on this MILLIONS if not BILLIONS of year old planet a change in weather over the recorded history of modern weather tracking this storm was like a nat on a molecule's butt.
notice

Fitchburg, MA

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Nov 1, 2012
 

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Doesn't matter the cause, the fact remains, it's happening more frequently and if we do nothing as Republicans suggest, hundreds of millions will perish from rising seas.

“dening those who deny nature. ”

Since: Jun 07

Norfolk va

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#8
Nov 2, 2012
 

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notice wrote:
Doesn't matter the cause, the fact remains, it's happening more frequently and if we do nothing as Republicans suggest, hundreds of millions will perish from rising seas.
Is it? Care to prove it is happening more often.

Care to ask those living in Florida how many hurricanes they saw this year.

The simple fact is that New Your and New Jersey were not as prepared as they should of been.

As for the rising sea, the rate is currently at 3.1 mm a year and has shown signs of decreasing not increasing based on the last decades worth of averages.

http://sealevel.colorado.edu/
PHD

Terrell, TX

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#9
Nov 3, 2012
 

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tina anne wrote:
<quoted text>
Is it? Care to prove it is happening more often.
Care to ask those living in Florida how many hurricanes they saw this year.
The simple fact is that New Your and New Jersey were not as prepared as they should of been.
As for the rising sea, the rate is currently at 3.1 mm a year and has shown signs of decreasing not increasing based on the last decades worth of averages.
http://sealevel.colorado.edu/
The Law of Averages state that you will always be Less than A Box of Rocks.Hay it's NEW YORK not New Your.See why YOUR a Less than A Box of Rocks.
notice

Fitchburg, MA

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#10
Nov 3, 2012
 
tina anne wrote:
<quoted text>
Is it? Care to prove it is happening more often.
Care to ask those living in Florida how many hurricanes they saw this year.
The simple fact is that New Your and New Jersey were not as prepared as they should of been.
As for the rising sea, the rate is currently at 3.1 mm a year and has shown signs of decreasing not increasing based on the last decades worth of averages.
http://sealevel.colorado.edu/
Oh please, prove something to a blind denier, spare us.

Care to tell us what happened to all your Mountain tops???????
Fun Facts

Las Cruces, NM

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#11
Nov 3, 2012
 

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notice wrote:
Doesn't matter the cause, the fact remains, it's happening more frequently and if we do nothing as Republicans suggest, hundreds of millions will perish from rising seas.
Not happening more frequently, look it up.
Midwestern Hillbilly

Effingham, IL

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#12
Nov 3, 2012
 
The BP uncontrolled oil gusher in the Gulf of Mexico, and million gallons of Corexit used instead of letting nature handle the biological cleanup, scientists state has altered the Gulf Stream and predicted a year or so ago that it'd mean dire things for the Atlantic Coast. Plus major earthquakes subtly changing the earth's tilt and causing jet streams overhead to be relocated as they drive weather.

Perfect Storms may be driven by the perfect storm manmade screwups combined, IMO. We's in a heap o' trouble....
notice

Fitchburg, MA

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#13
Nov 3, 2012
 
Fun Facts wrote:
<quoted text>
Not happening more frequently, look it up.
Idiot
hundred year storm Katrina, hundred year storm ice storm 2008, hundred year storm Irene, hundred year storm Sandy,
Only a blind azzhole would deny these things!!!!
Fun Facts

Las Cruces, NM

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#14
Nov 3, 2012
 

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Midwestern Hillbilly wrote:
The BP uncontrolled oil gusher in the Gulf of Mexico, and million gallons of Corexit used instead of letting nature handle the biological cleanup, scientists state has altered the Gulf Stream and predicted a year or so ago that it'd mean dire things for the Atlantic Coast. Plus major earthquakes subtly changing the earth's tilt and causing jet streams overhead to be relocated as they drive weather.
Perfect Storms may be driven by the perfect storm manmade screwups combined, IMO. We's in a heap o' trouble....
I have also noticed an increase in earthquakes with higher magnitudes.
notice

Fitchburg, MA

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#15
Nov 3, 2012
 
26 debates, 7 years running for Prez. Etch-A-Sketch still cannot claim ONE ISSUE HE STANDS FIRM ON!!!! Not one!!!!

THROUGH ALL THE flip-flops, there has been one consistency in the campaign of Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney: a contempt for the electorate.

How else to explain his refusal to disclose essential information? Defying recent bipartisan tradition, he failed to release the names of his bundlers — the high rollers who collected hundreds of thousands of dollars in donations. He never provided sufficient tax returns to show voters how he became rich.

How, other than an assumption that voters are too dim to remember what Mr. Romney has said across the years and months, to account for his breathtaking ideological shifts? He was a friend of immigrants, then a scourge of immigrants, then again a friend. He was a Kissingerian foreign policy realist, then a McCain-like hawk, then a purveyor of peace. He pioneered Obamacare, he detested Obamacare, then he found elements in it to cherish. Assault weapons were bad, then good. Abortion was okay, then bad. Climate change was an urgent problem; then, not so much. Hurricane cleanup was a job for the states, until it was once again a job for the feds.

The same presumption of gullibility has infused his misleading commercials (see: Jeep jobs to China) and his refusal to lay out an agenda. Mr. Romney promised to replace the Affordable Care Act but never said with what. He promised an alternative to President Obama’s lifeline to young undocumented immigrants but never deigned to describe it.

And then there has been his chronic, baldly dishonest defense of mathematically impossible budget proposals. He promised to cut income tax rates without exploding the deficit or tilting the tax code toward the rich — but he refused to say how he could bring that off. When challenged, he cited “studies” that he maintained proved him right. But the studies were a mix of rhetoric, unrealistic growth projections and more serious economics that actually proved him wrong.

This last is important — maybe the crux of the next four years. History has shown that it’s a lot easier to cut taxes than to reduce spending. Republican presidents Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush promised to do both, managed to do only the first and (with plenty of help from Congress) greatly increased the national debt.

Now Mr. Romney promises to reduce income tax rates by one-fifth — for the rich, that means from 35 percent to 28 percent — and to raise defense spending while balancing the budget. To do so, he would reduce other spending — unspecified — and take away deductions — unspecified. One of the studies he cited, by Harvard economist Martin Feldstein, said Mr. Romney could make the tax math work by depriving every household earning $100,000 or more of all of its charitable deductions, mortgage-interest deductions and deductions for state and local income taxes.

Does Mr. Romney favor ending those popular tax breaks? He won’t say. But he did take issue with Mr. Feldstein’s definition of the middle class: Mr. Romney said he would protect households earning $250,000 or less. In which case the Feldstein study did not vindicate the Romney arithmetic — it refuted it. Yet the candidate has continued to cite the study.

Mr. Romney, by contrast, seems to be betting that voters have no memories, poor arithmetic skills and a general inability to look behind the curtain. We hope the results Tuesday prove him wrong.
WAPO

Sounds about right to me!

This is the guy you bozo's think should be Prez!!!!

It says more about YOU than him though!! YOU have no integrity at all!!!

Deny this!!!!!
Fun Facts

Las Cruces, NM

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#16
Nov 3, 2012
 
notice wrote:
<quoted text>
Idiot
hundred year storm Katrina, hundred year storm ice storm 2008, hundred year storm Irene, hundred year storm Sandy,
Only a blind azzhole would deny these things!!!!
I don't deny anything, I do know that these storms have happened before. They cause more destruction today because there is more to destroy.

You will see more east coast hurricane landfalls in the next 25 years. It is a function of the PDO in it's negative phase with more impactful la ninas and mitigated el ninos.
notice

Fitchburg, MA

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#17
Nov 3, 2012
 
Fun Facts wrote:
<quoted text>
I don't deny anything, I do know that these storms have happened before. They cause more destruction today because there is more to destroy.
You will see more east coast hurricane landfalls in the next 25 years. It is a function of the PDO in it's negative phase with more impactful la ninas and mitigated el ninos.
What do you call this?

"Fun Facts wrote:

<quoted text>
Not happening more frequently, look it up"

That's DENIAL!!!!!!!!!
SpaceBlues

Houston, TX

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#18
Nov 3, 2012
 
Fun Facts wrote:
<quoted text>
I don't deny anything, I do know that these storms have happened before. They cause more destruction today because there is more to destroy.
You will see more east coast hurricane landfalls in the next 25 years. It is a function of the PDO in it's negative phase with more impactful la ninas and mitigated el ninos.
You are a certified denier, ff aka fossil fuel.

Look this up:

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/rundown/2012/08/j...

"In fact,[climate change] has now driven our climate outside the range that has existed the last 10,000 years..."
--James Hansen
Fun Facts

Las Cruces, NM

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#19
Nov 3, 2012
 
notice wrote:
<quoted text>
What do you call this?
"Fun Facts wrote:
<quoted text>
Not happening more frequently, look it up"
That's DENIAL!!!!!!!!!
One more time. The storms have happened before. The droughts have happened before. Do you deny the storms and droughts have happened before? Do you think this is the first time Manhattan has been flooded by a hurricane?

I can tell you it's not the first time New Jersey has been flooded. In the early 1960s my New Jersey backyard had 3 feet of hurricane flood water in it. The homes in my area of New Jersey, just outside Asbury Park, were all bermed because of the prior floods.

Since: Apr 08

"the green troll"

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#20
Nov 3, 2012
 
Fun Facts wrote:
<quoted text>
One more time. The storms have happened before. The droughts have happened before. Do you deny the storms and droughts have happened before? Do you think this is the first time Manhattan has been flooded by a hurricane?
I can tell you it's not the first time New Jersey has been flooded. In the early 1960s my New Jersey backyard had 3 feet of hurricane flood water in it. The homes in my area of New Jersey, just outside Asbury Park, were all bermed because of the prior floods.
It's the first time the New York subways are full of sea water in 108 years, after a century of sea level rise meant sea level is 7 inches higher.

The science says the end of the century will see several feet of sea level rise.

It's going to get a lot more difficult to deny.

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