Scientist: Global warming causing record U.S. heat

Aug 6, 2012 | Posted by: roboblogger | Full story: The City Wire

The record heat wave and drought tormenting much of the U.S. is part of a "new extreme category" of weather that is most likely the result of global warming, a top U.S. government climate scientist said.

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SpaceBlues

Houston, TX

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Aug 6, 2012
 

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“Climate dice,” describing the chance of unusually warm or cool seasons, have become more and more “loaded” in the past 30 y, coincident with rapid global warming. The distribution of seasonal mean temperature anomalies has shifted toward higher temperatures and the range of anomalies has increased. An important change is the emergence of a category of summertime extremely hot outliers, more than three standard deviations (3σ) warmer than the climatology of the 1951–1980 base period. This hot extreme, which covered much less than 1% of Earth’s surface during the base period, now typically covers about 10% of the land area. It follows that we can state, with a high degree of confidence, that extreme anomalies such as those in Texas and Oklahoma in 2011 and Moscow in 2010 were a consequence of global warming because their likelihood in the absence of global warming was exceedingly small. We discuss practical implications of this substantial, growing, climate change.

Hansen et al
Fun Facts

Las Cruces, NM

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#3
Aug 7, 2012
 

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What was it Hansen said about the 1951 to 1980 time period? He should have looked at history.

The 1950s Drought

Fueled by post-war economic stability and technological advancement, the 1950s represented a time of growth and prosperity for many Americans. While much of the country celebrated a resurgence of well-being, many residents of the Great Plains and southwestern United States were suffering. During the 1950s, the Great Plains and the southwestern U.S. withstood a five-year drought, and in three of these years, drought conditions stretched coast to coast. The drought was first felt in the southwestern U.S. in 1950 and spread to Oklahoma, Kansas and Nebraska by 1953. By 1954, the drought encompassed a ten-state area reaching from the mid-west to the Great Plains, and southward into New Mexico. The area from the Texas panhandle to central and eastern Colorado, western Kansas and central Nebraska experienced severe drought conditions. The drought maintained a stronghold in the Great Plains, reaching a peak in 1956. The drought subsided in most areas with the spring rains of 1957.

The 1950s drought was characterized by both low rainfall amounts and excessively high temperatures. Texas rainfall dropped by 40% between 1949-1951 and by 1953, 75% of Texas recorded below normal rainfall amounts. Excessive temperatures heated up cities like Dallas where temperatures exceeded 100°F on 52 days in the summer of 1953. Kansas experienced severe drought conditions during much of the five-year period, and recorded a negative Palmer Drought Severity Index from 1952 until March 1957, reaching a record low in September of 1956.

A drought of this magnitude creates severe social and economic repercussions and this was definitely the case in the southern Great Plains region. The drought devastated the region's agriculture. Crop yields in some areas dropped as much as 50%. Excessive temperatures and low rainfall scorched grasslands typically used for grazing. With grass scarce, hay prices became too costly, forcing some ranchers to feed their cattle a mixture of prickly pear cactus and molasses. By the time the drought subsided in 1957, many counties across the region were declared federal drought disaster areas, including 244 of the 254 counties in Texas.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/drought/drght_...

and guess what, that was climate change, the phase shift of the PDO went from positive to negative approx 1947.

The PDO phase shift from positive to negative happened again in 2007. Look at the dates.
Ruby Dawson

Temple, TX

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Aug 7, 2012
 

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Honey, it's already hot where I live. It was 105 yesterday, but I hope the polar bears and penguins are okay up north.
Northie

Spokane, WA

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Aug 7, 2012
 

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Fun Facts wrote:
What was it Hansen said about the 1951 to 1980 time period? He should have looked at history. The 1950s Drought. Fueled by post-war economic stability and technological advancement, the 1950s represented a time of growth and prosperity for many Americans...
You (and the articles author) conveniently sidestep the fact that this summer's American heat wave was not the subject of Hansen's, Sato's and Ruedy's paper. Rather, they identified other recent heat waves in the United States, Russia and Europe as direct results of our cooking of the climate.
Fun Facts

Las Cruces, NM

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#6
Aug 7, 2012
 

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Northie wrote:
<quoted text>
You (and the articles author) conveniently sidestep the fact that this summer's American heat wave was not the subject of Hansen's, Sato's and Ruedy's paper. Rather, they identified other recent heat waves in the United States, Russia and Europe as direct results of our cooking of the climate.
What I was referring to is this statement "Abnormal weather episodes were so rare from 1951 to 1980 that events such as the drought in Texas last year...."

What I posted shows that the drought in Texas this year, last year, looks very much like the drought of the 1950s and is happening within the same pattern as the 1950s drought.
Nothie

Spokane, WA

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Aug 7, 2012
 

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Fun Facts wrote:
<quoted text>
What I was referring to is this statement "Abnormal weather episodes were so rare from 1951 to 1980 that events such as the drought in Texas last year...."
What I posted shows that the drought in Texas this year, last year, looks very much like the drought of the 1950s and is happening within the same pattern as the 1950s drought.
Uh, what about Europe 2003 and Russia 2010? Even Texas's 2011 drought was the worst ever for that state. The paper's point is that the probability of ALL these very unlikely events happening in series, exactly as forecasted, proves beyond reasonable doubt that we are cooking the climate and paying an increasingly high price for it (15,000 dead in Russia, 35,000 dead in Europe, economic costs in the tens of billions...).
SpaceBlues

Houston, TX

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Aug 7, 2012
 

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Twenty-four years ago, I introduced the concept of “climate dice” to help distinguish the long-term trend of climate change from the natural variability of day-to-day weather. Some summers are hot, some cool. Some winters brutal, some mild. That’s natural variability.

But as the climate warms, natural variability is altered, too. In a normal climate without global warming, two sides of the die would represent cooler-than-normal weather, two sides would be normal weather, and two sides would be warmer-than-normal weather. Rolling the die again and again, or season after season, you would get an equal variation of weather over time.

But loading the die with a warming climate changes the odds. You end up with only one side cooler than normal, one side average, and four sides warmer than normal. Even with climate change, you will occasionally see cooler-than-normal summers or a typically cold winter. Don’t let that fool you.

Our new peer-reviewed study, published by the National Academy of Sciences, makes clear that while average global temperature has been steadily rising due to a warming climate (up about 1.5 degrees Fahrenheit in the past century), the extremes are actually becoming much more frequent and more intense worldwide.

When we plotted the world’s changing temperatures on a bell curve, the extremes of unusually cool and, even more, the extremes of unusually hot are being altered so they are becoming both more common and more severe.

The change is so dramatic that one face of the die must now represent extreme weather to illustrate the greater frequency of extremely hot weather events.

Such events used to be exceedingly rare. Extremely hot temperatures covered about 0.1 percent to 0.2 percent of the globe in the base period of our study, from 1951 to 1980. In the last three decades, while the average temperature has slowly risen, the extremes have soared and now cover about 10 percent of the g

Read more: http://host.madison.com/news/opinion/column/j...

“Happy, warm and comfortable”

Since: Oct 10

Mountain hideaway, SE Spain

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Aug 8, 2012
 

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Fun Facts wrote:
What I was referring to is this statement "Abnormal weather episodes were so rare from 1951 to 1980 that events such as the drought in Texas last year...."
What I posted shows that the drought in Texas this year, last year, looks very much like the drought of the 1950s and is happening within the same pattern as the 1950s drought.
It's a waste of time trying to get the idea of cyclical weather through to Nauseous, he's convinced we're heading for a catastrophe and that's what he wants to see.
The fact that he's going to die a very disappointed bunny, is neither here nor there.
Ö¿Ö
Fun Facts

Las Cruces, NM

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Aug 8, 2012
 

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Nothie wrote:
<quoted text>
Uh, what about Europe 2003 and Russia 2010? Even Texas's 2011 drought was the worst ever for that state. The paper's point is that the probability of ALL these very unlikely events happening in series, exactly as forecasted, proves beyond reasonable doubt that we are cooking the climate and paying an increasingly high price for it (15,000 dead in Russia, 35,000 dead in Europe, economic costs in the tens of billions...).
Texas 2011 was the worst single year drought, look it up, the 1950s drought is still top drought in the state's history.

Nothing changes what I said. We are in the same state of climate we were in the last time we were in the same space within the PDO pattern.
Fun Facts

Las Cruces, NM

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Aug 8, 2012
 

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Earthling-1 wrote:
<quoted text>It's a waste of time trying to get the idea of cyclical weather through to Nauseous, he's convinced we're heading for a catastrophe and that's what he wants to see.
The fact that he's going to die a very disappointed bunny, is neither here nor there.
Ö¿Ö
I understand.

“Happy, warm and comfortable”

Since: Oct 10

Mountain hideaway, SE Spain

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Record US heat explained on page 4:
http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm...

Since: Mar 09

Wichita, KS

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Aug 8, 2012
 

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Earthling-1 wrote:
Record US heat explained on page 4:
http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm...
I don't expect you to understand, but we are breaking the records set in the 1930's. Of course as time progresses, it gets more and more difficult to break records. The first year records are established, all readings are records. The second, there are less new records because some of the extremes are smaller than they were the first year. The third year, new records are not as plentiful because some of the first and second year records were more extreme. Do this for more years and it should soon become apparent that it is more difficult to establish new records as time progresses.

We are breaking the records set in the 1930's.

Since: Mar 09

Wichita, KS

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Aug 8, 2012
 

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Fun Facts wrote:
<quoted text>
What I was referring to is this statement "Abnormal weather episodes were so rare from 1951 to 1980 that events such as the drought in Texas last year...."
What I posted shows that the drought in Texas this year, last year, looks very much like the drought of the 1950s and is happening within the same pattern as the 1950s drought.
But in the West, this multi-year drought was unlike anything seen in many centuries, based on tree ring data. The last two periods with drought events of similar severity were in the Middle Ages, from 977-981 and 1146-1151.
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/07/...
SpaceBlues

Houston, TX

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Aug 8, 2012
 

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The Eco-Polluters: the Real Invasive Species, the True Useless Eaters. The Unseen Threat Exposed

They will lie, cheat and even steal. They will destroy people’s characters and attack any attempting to clean our air or water, using slander if they can get away with it. They will even murder if necessary any one who stands in their way.

They do not care how many people they impoverish and harm. They think they know better how to run our lives and think they have this right to dominate other people. They are not people who live by example by showing how to live efficiently with non polluting ways and still have a better lifestyle. Their leaders like Rush Limbaugh tells his ditto heads to squander all the Earth's resources so the rich can justify their mansions, palaces, planes, trains and yachts. Rush has bragged about how large a carbon footprint he has with his power pig mansion and private jet to take him to his golf dates.

They are authoritarians who do not want to govern, they want to rule. They do not seek to benefit society as a whole. They pursue power to dominate. They do not believe in the rights of others. They want to put a boot to our faces in the name of freedom.

Reference:

http://www.topix.com/forum/news/global-warmin...
SpaceBlues

Houston, TX

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Aug 8, 2012
 

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Earthling-1 wrote:
Record US heat explained on page 4:
http:
Incorrect.

You are having hard luck in finding trash anymore.

“Happy, warm and comfortable”

Since: Oct 10

Mountain hideaway, SE Spain

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Aug 9, 2012
 

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DumBozo wrote:
we are breaking the records set in the 1930's.
We are breaking the records set in the 1930's.
Repeat it as often as you like, but your 'we' are not breaking any records whatsoever.

If you're referring to heat records being broken in the US, that would come under the heading of a local weather anomaly, which is of no consequence globally.

Since: Mar 09

Wichita, KS

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Aug 9, 2012
 

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Earthling-1 wrote:
<quoted text>Repeat it as often as you like, but your 'we' are not breaking any records whatsoever.
If you're referring to heat records being broken in the US, that would come under the heading of a local weather anomaly, which is of no consequence globally.
The discussion was heat records in the US. Pay attention.
Fun Facts

Las Cruces, NM

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Aug 9, 2012
 

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Patriot AKA Bozo wrote:
<quoted text>
But in the West, this multi-year drought was unlike anything seen in many centuries, based on tree ring data. The last two periods with drought events of similar severity were in the Middle Ages, from 977-981 and 1146-1151.
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/07/...
In my area from the tree ring study conducted in the mountains I can see from my front yard, the most severe drought was the around 1266 to 1296 CE. The second most profound drought was around the 1960s.

Your reference is interesting as both dates you cite are in the MWP.
Fun Facts

Las Cruces, NM

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Aug 9, 2012
 

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Earthling-1 wrote:
Record US heat explained on page 4:
http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm...
Thanks for the reference.
Fun Facts

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Aug 9, 2012
 

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SpaceBlues wrote:
The Eco-Polluters: the Real Invasive Species, the True Useless Eaters. The Unseen Threat Exposed
They will lie, cheat and even steal. They will destroy people’s characters and attack any attempting to clean our air or water, using slander if they can get away with it. They will even murder if necessary any one who stands in their way.
They do not care how many people they impoverish and harm. They think they know better how to run our lives and think they have this right to dominate other people. They are not people who live by example by showing how to live efficiently with non polluting ways and still have a better lifestyle. Their leaders like Rush Limbaugh tells his ditto heads to squander all the Earth's resources so the rich can justify their mansions, palaces, planes, trains and yachts. Rush has bragged about how large a carbon footprint he has with his power pig mansion and private jet to take him to his golf dates.
They are authoritarians who do not want to govern, they want to rule. They do not seek to benefit society as a whole. They pursue power to dominate. They do not believe in the rights of others. They want to put a boot to our faces in the name of freedom.
Reference:
http://www.topix.com/forum/news/global-warmin...
The actual title of what you cut and pasted was

"The Eco-Tyrants: the Real Invasive Species, the True Useless Eaters. The Unseen Threat Exposed"

The article is about people who think like you. Changing the title of the article, doesn't change it's content.

http://www.thelonestarwatchdog.com/2012/08/08...

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