The latest decadal prediction suggests that global temperatures over the next five years are likely to be a little lower than predicted from the previous prediction issued in December 2011.<quoted text>
Well ok, that means 2014 will have to be 0.73, as 2004 was 0.43 above the average according to Hadcrut3. The warmest year has been 0.52 above the average.
But you keep believing, because the Met Office doesnt have any confidence in the prediction that they originally had placed high confidence in. They have already changed that prediction 2 times:
The new 2011 prediction: Global average temperature is expected to rise to between 0.36 °C and 0.72 °C (90% confidence range) above the long-term (1971-2000) average during the period 2012-2016, with values most likely to be about 0.54 °C higher than average.
The new 2013 prediction: Global average temperature is expected to remain between 0.28 °C and 0.59 °C (90% confidence range) above the long-term (1971-2000) average during the period 2013-2017, with values most likely to be about 0.43 °C higher than average.
However, both versions are consistent in predicting that we will continue to see near-record levels of global temperatures in the next few years.
This means temperatures will remain well above the long-term average and we will continue to see temperatures like those which resulted in 2000-2009 being the warmest decade in the instrumental record dating back to 1850.
Decadal predictions are specifically designed to predict fluctuations in the climate system through knowledge of the current climate state and multi-year variability of the oceans.
Small year to year fluctuations such as those that we are seeing in the shorter term five year predictions are expected due to natural variability in the climate system, and have no sustained impact on the long term warming.