Global Rate, Intensity of Earthquakes...

Global Rate, Intensity of Earthquakes on the Rise; Revives End-of-the-World Doomsday Speculations

There are 2 comments on the International Business Times story from Jul 2, 2014, titled Global Rate, Intensity of Earthquakes on the Rise; Revives End-of-the-World Doomsday Speculations. In it, International Business Times reports that:

Is doomsday end of the world just lurking around? The current year 2014 is shaping up to be the year when the most number of strong earthquakes occurred, a new study found.

Join the discussion below, or Read more at International Business Times.

“Geologist [I'm Climate Change]”

Since: Mar 07

formerly Nuneaton

#1 Jul 2, 2014
Odd. You might have thought that a business based newspaper would be more up to date on the running of stats & prob.

The statistic rate is slightly more than average certainly for quakes above mag. 7. but the total energy release is still less than in 2010, or 2011.

In those 2 years the crust of an island arc sector relaxed following a megathrust quake. The energy release in the aftershocks alone would raise the energy to 2014 levels.

For the record, in 2014, the time now is 3 years post crustal relaxation so areas adjacent to the relaxed crust is tightening up as a result of plate lurch, and also add to that, the random big quakes typical of a year worldwide.

No end of world scenario as such with quakes, just a simple tick and tock of a rather complex clockwork engine. The fun bit is that megathrust quakes in particular ARE predictable but the exact runout of the last one and the time to the nearest month must be known in order to be able to predict the next to the nearest year.
For quakes elsewhere, the action of adjacent faults must also be factored in which means that there is a 10 to 15 year error bar even when the last one & its size is known. To prove that one just look & the research @ Parkfield.

Have a nice day: Ag

Toronto, Canada

#2 Jul 2, 2014

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