Yes I'm quite familiar with that.KJV, my calculations for the odds were not based on the reality of the situation, I did them using your own failed concept of the method of natural selection. That would be the odds if it "started from scratch" each time, since natural selection isn't random it doesn't do that, so the odds for success are much, much, much higher.
Suppose you have three doors, behind one is a great prize, you don't know which one. The announcer asks you to pick one, and you do. Your odds are 33% of choosing the correct one.
Then the announcer shows you one of the two doors you didn't pick, which don't contain the prize. Your odds of having chosen the correct door are still 33%... but then he let's you change your choice.
What are your odds of selecting the correct door if you change your decision? It's a simple answer. So ... what are your chances now?
Not really sure if you can use it here with out including some sort of intelligent's at work.
I believe the scenario here to be more like the roulette wheel. Every spin same odds. No intelligent's at work.