Why Offensive line in the top 5 is a massive error: the Data

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“Zimmer Turner Overdrive”

Since: Jan 07

Minneapolis

#1 Mar 26, 2012
Super Bowl winners
I, II Green Bay Packers
LB, Fred Carr

III NY Jets
none

IV Kansas City
none (Aaron Brown, DE 6)

V Baltimore
Bubba Smith, DE 1

VI Dallas
Craig Morton, QB, 5 John Niland, G 5

VII & VIII Miami
Rick Norton, QB 2 Griese, QB 4,

IX, X, XIII, XIV, Pittsburgh
Bradshaw, QB 1, Greene, DT 1 & JT THomas CB 4.

XI, XV, XVIII Oakland/LA
none (roman Gabrial, QB #1 overall, but in 1960)

XII Dallas
Ed "two tall" Jones,DE 1 Randy White,DT 2 Tony Dorsett 2 RB

XVI, XIX, XXIII, XXIV, XXIX San Fran
none (Ronnie Lott, CB 8 )

XVII, XXII, XXVI Washington
none (Skins mostly traded picks for players)

XX Chicago
Payton, RB 4, Hampton, DT 4, McMahon, QB 5 (covert @6)

XXI, XXV NY Giants
Taylor, OLB,

XXVII, XXVIII, XXX Dallas
Aikman, QB 1 Walsh, QB 1 Maryland DT 1

XXXI Green Bay
Terrell Buckley, CB 4 (Reggie White, DT)

XXXII XXXIII Denver
Elway, QB 1

XXXIV St. Louis
Orlando Pace,1 LT Todd Lyght, CB 5, Gilbert, DT 3,(Torry Holt6 & Grant Wistrom, DE 6's \ Marshall Faulk was top 5 by Indy)

XXXV Baltimore
Jon Ogden, LT Boulware, olb, J. Lewis, rb

XXXVI, XXXVIII, XXXIX New England
Bledsoe, QB 1 McGinest, OLB

XXXVII Tampa Bay
None (lots of high picks, but no top 5's that were still around. Testeverde qb1, & Paul Gruber, OT 4 gone or retired, dilfer went 6, etc.)

XL, XLIII, Pittsburgh
none

XLI Indianapolis
Peyton Manning, QB 1 Edgerinn James, RB, 4 (Marshall Faulk went to St. Louis)

XLII, XLVI NY Giants
Phillip Rivers, QB 4 (traded 4 eli, 1)

XLIV New Orleans
Reggie Bush, RB 2

XLV Green Bay
A.J. Hawk, mlb 5 (Charles Woodson, but he was Raider pick)
======
Hope I didn't make (m)any errors.

“Zimmer Turner Overdrive”

Since: Jan 07

Minneapolis

#2 Mar 26, 2012
15 to 23 QB picks helped super bowls, depending on how you wanna count dynasties & guys that get replaced.(2 dolphins/double pick, 3 cowboys/double pick, 3 patriots/replacement)

13 DT/ DE SB's were helped with top 5's.(do you count reggie white, a free agent? then 14)
9 LB's (mostly olb's obv.)
6 DB Super Bowl wins (7 counting Charles woodson)
5 RB super bowl wins (Marshall Faulk would be 6, if you wanna count FA's)
2 LT's
1 guard.

Going back to 1966, I counted 32 offensive linemen selected in the top 5, with another 8 selected at pick 6 (if you wanna count Jimbo Covert)

4 super bowl wins outa 40 selections, or
3 out of 32.

Basically, a 1 in 10 shot you win a SB before your OL retires. So, let's review the Ogden selection & the Pace selection since it's so much fun for me.

For the Ogden plan to work, you need an expation draft where you get stocked with talent instead of screwed over, then, you end up, after a few great defensive choices, with the greatest defense in NFL history. If you do that, you can afford Ogden.

For the Orlando Pace selection to work, what happens is each year your team does worse & worse with Pace playing left tackle. Pace then allows your franchise QB to get obliterated in a preseason game, ending his year. You hold tryouts at the local gas station/convienience store & you find a HOF QB (ok, maybe he got invited for arena ball & not tossing the charmin ) who then immediately takes you from 4 wins on his back, winning league MVP & super bowl MVP in the same year. Seems simple enough!

Since: Dec 06

Davenport, FL

#3 Mar 27, 2012
That's a lot of work to make a point.
Looks as if the Vikings won't be reading it though.

Since: Dec 06

Davenport, FL

#4 Mar 27, 2012
Some of the greatest offensive lines played in and won S.B.'s
G.B. of Lombardi
Wash and the Hogs
Oak with that left side
Miami clearing it out for Zonk
Sure there's plenty more
even teams like
Indy,N.E. had way above average lines.
Soooooooooooooooooooo who knows
and I'm not sure where any of those guys were drafted and I'm not doing all that work.

“Zimmer Turner Overdrive”

Since: Jan 07

Minneapolis

#5 Mar 27, 2012
Childress wrote:
Some of the greatest offensive lines played in and won S.B.'s
G.B. of Lombardi
Wash and the Hogs
Oak with that left side
Miami clearing it out for Zonk
Sure there's plenty more
even teams like
Indy,N.E. had way above average lines.
Soooooooooooooooooooo who knows
and I'm not sure where any of those guys were drafted and I'm not doing all that work.
They were drafted lower. Art shell, round 3 (same draft where we took Ron Yary #1 overall). Washington traded pretty much & had very few #1 picks. Indy had Charlie Johnson - maybe you remember him? N.E.'s light was a rd 2, only first was logan mankins. i don't recall gb or miami.

Another point I believe is great offensive lines are not drafted high, typically. Heck, Dallas had maybe the most impressive line & they had rd4, rd 6, udfa, if memory serves. You train your lines, not use all your gold. It's not a position where you need a 40 time or a 3-cone drill time. So who cares if Kalil looked pretty at the combine?

“Zimmer Turner Overdrive”

Since: Jan 07

Minneapolis

#6 Mar 27, 2012
Again, QB - 15-23 SB's.
Pass rushers, 20 super bowls.
offensive tackle, 2.
WR, 0.

I sure hope our franchise is run by someone who deserves the job.

Since: Dec 06

Davenport, FL

#7 Mar 27, 2012
Purple Faithful wrote:
Again, QB - 15-23 SB's.
Pass rushers, 20 super bowls.
offensive tackle, 2.
WR, 0.
I sure hope our franchise is run by someone who deserves the job.
So Coples it is and I do remember Johnson,he plays LT for Minn.

“Zimmer Turner Overdrive”

Since: Jan 07

Minneapolis

#8 Mar 27, 2012
Childress wrote:
<quoted text>So Coples it is and I do remember Johnson,he plays LT for Minn.
yeah, i got no problem with Coples if the braintrust thinks he's gonna be great. can't have too many pass rushers, it seems.
Kanfan

Wichita, KS

#9 Mar 27, 2012
I guarantee that with our present O/L we win "0" SBs. We have the best pass-rusher, a defense #7 against the run, and elite RB and we end up 3 and 13. IDEA: let's trade down and draft another pass-rusher, who, if lucky, might get 1 sack for every 50 snaps. OR...we can draft an O/L who will stop that D/L 49 outta 50 times. Hhmmm. Decisions, decisions.

“Zimmer Turner Overdrive”

Since: Jan 07

Minneapolis

#10 Mar 28, 2012
Kanfan wrote:
I guarantee that with our present O/L we win "0" SBs. We have the best pass-rusher, a defense #7 against the run, and elite RB and we end up 3 and 13. IDEA: let's trade down and draft another pass-rusher, who, if lucky, might get 1 sack for every 50 snaps. OR...we can draft an O/L who will stop that D/L 49 outta 50 times. Hhmmm. Decisions, decisions.
Show me. Show me where our offensive line play = lack of winning. Problem is, offensive line play does not track with winning or even quarterback play. Having the #32 pass defense does, though. Having the 27th ranked QB by YPA does.

for you, football outsiders has the Vikings having the 32nd ranked line, but they say the problem was TE. LT is rank 16, our c/g's are rank 16 & our RT is rank 3!!! hilarious. I love Football outsiders, but their offensive line breakdown leaves something to be desired. So, another stat guru site is Pro football focus. They rate the vikings line play as 7th best in the league! The problem for them as they see the Vikings is Ponder. He converts pressure into sacks at a super high rate - rank 30 in that catagory.

Look, i am fine replacing Loadholdt & CJ. But it won't equal more wins if everything else stays the same. The Giants offensive line last year is among the worst & they won it all. The reason? Eli Manning is the best at handling QB pressure.

84 percent of all super bowl winners finish in the top 5 of passer rating differential (pass offense minus pass defense, per play)

(Sry if this re-posts, doesn't show)

Since: Dec 06

Davenport, FL

#11 Mar 28, 2012
Kanfan wrote:
I guarantee that with our present O/L we win "0" SBs. We have the best pass-rusher, a defense #7 against the run, and elite RB and we end up 3 and 13. IDEA: let's trade down and draft another pass-rusher, who, if lucky, might get 1 sack for every 50 snaps. OR...we can draft an O/L who will stop that D/L 49 outta 50 times. Hhmmm. Decisions, decisions.
Coples is rated to be as good as J.Peppers.If so,him and Allen would help shut down those NFC North Qb's and their receivers.
You can't fix everything in one draft.
So you either fix the D or O as best possible.I've stated offense has gotten us nowhere in 35 years.Therefore I'm looking for a great D and with this draft.However,it looks like they'll get Kalil,so they might as well do whatever.Coples could be had as late as 7 or 8,which could add a pick in a slight trade down.The guy is a beast.
Kanfan

Wichita, KS

#12 Mar 28, 2012
Purple Faithful wrote:
<quoted text>Show me. Show me where our offensive line play = lack of winning. Problem is, offensive line play does not track with winning or even quarterback play. Having the #32 pass defense does, though. Having the 27th ranked QB by YPA does.
for you, football outsiders has the Vikings having the 32nd ranked line, but they say the problem was TE. LT is rank 16, our c/g's are rank 16 & our RT is rank 3!!! hilarious. I love Football outsiders, but their offensive line breakdown leaves something to be desired. So, another stat guru site is Pro football focus. They rate the vikings line play as 7th best in the league! The problem for them as they see the Vikings is Ponder. He converts pressure into sacks at a super high rate - rank 30 in that catagory.
Look, i am fine replacing Loadholdt & CJ. But it won't equal more wins if everything else stays the same. The Giants offensive line last year is among the worst & they won it all. The reason? Eli Manning is the best at handling QB pressure.
84 percent of all super bowl winners finish in the top 5 of passer rating differential (pass offense minus pass defense, per play)
(Sry if this re-posts, doesn't show)
let's just say you're right. Even then, a D/L-man isn't what is wrong, at least not a DE. Better look at ILB or CB. The only one worthy of a #3 pick would be Claiborne. Does he translate well into Tampa 2? Most experts say no, also that he grabs too much. BPA in an area of need. I've read where some say Kalil is the 2nd BPA over-all in this draft. Not a glamorous pick, no flashy head-lines, but he will win 48 or 49 outta 50 against most DEs.

“Zimmer Turner Overdrive”

Since: Jan 07

Minneapolis

#13 Mar 28, 2012
Kanfan wrote:
<quoted text>let's just say you're right. Even then, a D/L-man isn't what is wrong, at least not a DE. Better look at ILB or CB. The only one worthy of a #3 pick would be Claiborne. Does he translate well into Tampa 2? Most experts say no, also that he grabs too much. BPA in an area of need. I've read where some say Kalil is the 2nd BPA over-all in this draft. Not a glamorous pick, no flashy head-lines, but he will win 48 or 49 outta 50 against most DEs.
I'm fine with Claiborne. I try not to pretend too much I'm a great talent evaluator. I've seen one Claiborne tape, 0 coples, 3 Cox, 0 Poe, loads of RG3, 0 trent richardson, 1 brockers,

So, I can't say who's for sure right. I can just say Kalil is wrong, from a what actually works perspective. If you are a diehard help ponder this draft guy, then I would tell you Trent Richardson should be the choice. running backs that can help the pass game a great deal while still being great running backs do help you win. My guy AD is a pure runner - can't block/catch. But, edge James & Marshall Faulk went top 5 & can catch.

So, all I am saying is if you wanna play the odss of what works, DL is great, CB is good, RB is good, OL is bad, WR is bad. Elite WR/OL hasn't been able to get you over the top when you, in the top 5, do not try & improve what has worked. But yeah, maybe Coples is no good, for all I know, and would not be better than Brian Robison. Or that Cox isn't as good as I think. I'm no scout.:)
Kanfan

Wichita, KS

#14 Mar 28, 2012
Purple Faithful wrote:
<quoted text>I'm fine with Claiborne. I try not to pretend too much I'm a great talent evaluator. I've seen one Claiborne tape, 0 coples, 3 Cox, 0 Poe, loads of RG3, 0 trent richardson, 1 brockers,
So, I can't say who's for sure right. I can just say Kalil is wrong, from a what actually works perspective. If you are a diehard help ponder this draft guy, then I would tell you Trent Richardson should be the choice. running backs that can help the pass game a great deal while still being great running backs do help you win. My guy AD is a pure runner - can't block/catch. But, edge James & Marshall Faulk went top 5 & can catch.
So, all I am saying is if you wanna play the odss of what works, DL is great, CB is good, RB is good, OL is bad, WR is bad. Elite WR/OL hasn't been able to get you over the top when you, in the top 5, do not try & improve what has worked. But yeah, maybe Coples is no good, for all I know, and would not be better than Brian Robison. Or that Cox isn't as good as I think. I'm no scout.:)
You and me both. I understand your wanting a difference maker, Kalil may not fit that bill. The hard work in the trenches doesn't make headlines. Still, we wouldn't have to draft another LT for 10 years (hope). Beyond Kalil, Reiff and Martin, there isn' another LT that would be available after we take Claiborne. Kalil, Reiff and Martin will definately be gone, 1st rd.
Strange, isn't it? The argument is that a LT isn't worth a 1st rd pick yet all 3 LTs go in the 1st rd...according to the latest mock draft.
Harry

Park River, ND

#15 Mar 28, 2012
Purple Faithful wrote:
<quoted text>I'm fine with Claiborne. I try not to pretend too much I'm a great talent evaluator. I've seen one Claiborne tape, 0 coples, 3 Cox, 0 Poe, loads of RG3, 0 trent richardson, 1 brockers,
So, I can't say who's for sure right. I can just say Kalil is wrong, from a what actually works perspective. If you are a diehard help ponder this draft guy, then I would tell you Trent Richardson should be the choice. running backs that can help the pass game a great deal while still being great running backs do help you win. My guy AD is a pure runner - can't block/catch. But, edge James & Marshall Faulk went top 5 & can catch.
So, all I am saying is if you wanna play the odss of what works, DL is great, CB is good, RB is good, OL is bad, WR is bad. Elite WR/OL hasn't been able to get you over the top when you, in the top 5, do not try & improve what has worked. But yeah, maybe Coples is no good, for all I know, and would not be better than Brian Robison. Or that Cox isn't as good as I think. I'm no scout.:)
Is there an Upshaw/Shell/Otto combo out there? Could the Vikings draft a whole existing line?

“Zimmer Turner Overdrive”

Since: Jan 07

Minneapolis

#16 Mar 28, 2012
Harry wrote:
<quoted text>
Is there an Upshaw/Shell/Otto combo out there? Could the Vikings draft a whole existing line?
hey, if we could do that, it might work very well.:) I tend to think QB's make their lines look pretty good, though.(or pretty bad, sometimes)

Saints have a terrible left tackle who rarely gives up sacks. ;)

“Zimmer Turner Overdrive”

Since: Jan 07

Minneapolis

#17 Mar 28, 2012
Kanfan wrote:
<quoted text>You and me both. I understand your wanting a difference maker, Kalil may not fit that bill. The hard work in the trenches doesn't make headlines. Still, we wouldn't have to draft another LT for 10 years (hope). Beyond Kalil, Reiff and Martin, there isn' another LT that would be available after we take Claiborne. Kalil, Reiff and Martin will definately be gone, 1st rd.
Strange, isn't it? The argument is that a LT isn't worth a 1st rd pick yet all 3 LTs go in the 1st rd...according to the latest mock draft.
yeah, well, later down teams may feel they have the pieces in place to afford an o-lineman. I'd be fine trading back for more picks then taking an o-lineman. Because we can still get lucky later & fill a hole.
Kanfan

Wichita, KS

#18 Mar 29, 2012
Purple Faithful wrote:
<quoted text>yeah, well, later down teams may feel they have the pieces in place to afford an o-lineman. I'd be fine trading back for more picks then taking an o-lineman. Because we can still get lucky later & fill a hole.
Let's compare the Vikes 2 guards from last season. Hutchinson vs Herrera..1st rd against UFA. Career: Hutchinson, 11 years, 7 Pro-bowls, started 157 games, 49 sacks. Herrera, 8 years, 0 Pro-bowls, started 70 games, 49 sacks. Difference of more than 2 to 1 in games played vs sacks allowed.
Hutchinson was drafted 1st rd, 17th by Seattle in 2001. A guard drafted in the 1st rd? Must be by a team with all the pieces in place. Not at 17th. BPA.
Hutch and Herrera are released, Hutch signs w/ Tenn. for another 3 year deal, Herrera? Bye-bye. Over-all length of NFL career. 14 yrs for Hutch, 8 for Herrera.
Pillar of offensive line vs weak link. Hall of fame vs foot-note.
And that is the real difference between a "serviceable" O/L-man and an All-Pro 1st rd pick.

“Zimmer Turner Overdrive”

Since: Jan 07

Minneapolis

#19 Mar 29, 2012
Kanfan wrote:
<quoted text>Let's compare the Vikes 2 guards from last season. Hutchinson vs Herrera..1st rd against UFA. Career: Hutchinson, 11 years, 7 Pro-bowls, started 157 games, 49 sacks. Herrera, 8 years, 0 Pro-bowls, started 70 games, 49 sacks. Difference of more than 2 to 1 in games played vs sacks allowed.
Hutchinson was drafted 1st rd, 17th by Seattle in 2001. A guard drafted in the 1st rd? Must be by a team with all the pieces in place. Not at 17th. BPA.
Hutch and Herrera are released, Hutch signs w/ Tenn. for another 3 year deal, Herrera? Bye-bye. Over-all length of NFL career. 14 yrs for Hutch, 8 for Herrera.
Pillar of offensive line vs weak link. Hall of fame vs foot-note.
And that is the real difference between a "serviceable" O/L-man and an All-Pro 1st rd pick.
You are comparing a guy that was good to a guy that was cut, but yes, at 17, I would take a tackle or a guard or a center, if there was someone I thought was there of Hutch's ability. Hutch was an extremely special prospect. I just would not take Hutch in the top 5. I commend your research, but i have wanted to cut herrara forever. He is a run blocker, not a pass blocker & what I like is pass blockers. Hutch was a pick 17, but that doesn't mean you can't draft a Grubbs or Nicks, does it? Where were they drafted? See, a team picking 17 is not a bad team. there are 32 teams, not 320. Hutch did help seattle get to a super bowl & they in seattle did use a 6 on Walter Jones, so they had the offensive line to block for shaun alexander. Quarterback was Hasselback. Did what they do result in greatness? I guess if I were them, I might have wanted an elite defensive player instead of Walter Jones, but I am fine taking Hutch at 17. Gotta go value down there, including offensive linemen, i think. Trade value chart, pick 3 2200 points, pick 17 950 points. reason 17 is worth less than 3 is your less likely to get an elite that can help you win. Anyway, if you wanna play that game with former elite seattle o/lineman, the one that compares is Walter Jones, & the next defensive player that went off the board after him was James Farrior. I believe he was a member of the steelers that beat seattle, but he was drafted by the jets. Still, was walter jones the best use of the pick?
Kanfan

Wichita, KS

#20 Mar 29, 2012
Purple Faithful wrote:
<quoted text>You are comparing a guy that was good to a guy that was cut, but yes, at 17, I would take a tackle or a guard or a center, if there was someone I thought was there of Hutch's ability. Hutch was an extremely special prospect. I just would not take Hutch in the top 5. I commend your research, but i have wanted to cut herrara forever. He is a run blocker, not a pass blocker & what I like is pass blockers. Hutch was a pick 17, but that doesn't mean you can't draft a Grubbs or Nicks, does it? Where were they drafted? See, a team picking 17 is not a bad team. there are 32 teams, not 320. Hutch did help seattle get to a super bowl & they in seattle did use a 6 on Walter Jones, so they had the offensive line to block for shaun alexander. Quarterback was Hasselback. Did what they do result in greatness? I guess if I were them, I might have wanted an elite defensive player instead of Walter Jones, but I am fine taking Hutch at 17. Gotta go value down there, including offensive linemen, i think. Trade value chart, pick 3 2200 points, pick 17 950 points. reason 17 is worth less than 3 is your less likely to get an elite that can help you win. Anyway, if you wanna play that game with former elite seattle o/lineman, the one that compares is Walter Jones, & the next defensive player that went off the board after him was James Farrior. I believe he was a member of the steelers that beat seattle, but he was drafted by the jets. Still, was walter jones the best use of the pick?
A case can be made for or against any draft pick. Jones vs Ferrior? Let the facts speak. Jones...9 pro-bowls, Farrior..2 pro-bowls. Not really comparing apples to apples there. A LT is more important than a LB, IMO. I just think, looking at all the head-cases, fat-asses and warning flags surrounding players, Kalil is the safest pick. BPA in an area of need is my only criteria. And if we trade down, my criteria does not change. Over-all, we do think alike, except I value LTs a little more than you.

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