Soon and Briggs: Global-warming fanatics take note – Sunspots do impact climate

Sep 12, 2012 | Posted by: roboblogger | Full story: Free Republic

Chinese imperial astronomers kept detailed sunspot records. They noticed that more sunspots meant warmer weather.

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“Happy, warm and comfortable”

Since: Oct 10

Mountain hideaway, SE Spain

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#84
Sep 19, 2012
 

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Adrian Godsafe MSc wrote:
Like that one.
Interesting thing is the heat capacity of the oceans which is the real repository of global temperature.
As we are in the Holocene (an interglacial) it is merked by continued global warming as a result of the cold ocean resulting from the Pleistocene (last glacial, of various local names depending on where the last glacial deposits were laid down)period.
The Holocene will continue until the influx of fresh surface water from river inflow from summer floods in N.Asia builds up to a thckness where the local winter ice sheet (winter night frosts) cannot form ice out of classical ocean brine, and the resulting loss of thermohaline circulation shuts down the gulf stream.
We are now IN the latest stage of the interglacial and addition of global heat decreases the time between NOW and the time when the gulf stream shutdown takes place. The fact that this will occur is inevitable but the "when" is not yet set.
We are now in climate mode#3 {general drought; monsoons no longer fixed in a root at a given longitude, with the monsoonal roots & flows drifting E. with time, squall lines and fixed position (a few weeks) cutoff lows in the temperate rainbelt fed by monsoonal flows}. This is of course important for the generation of major floods in N. Asia (generally Russia area), and subsequent large scale freshwater input into Arctic Ocean. Of interest to S. Asia is that climate mode#3 gives rise to a pulsating monsoon with no well defined peak & no geneal OFF period!.
The fact that we are currently in climate mode#3 due to a slight warming is a feature of the fact that the equatorial and tropics layer of ocean water is now both hot & also thick. This is a product of global warming and without anthropogenic input would still have taken place. In cooler periods of the Holocene, climate mode#3 also took place as a result of major dust veil induced cooling from impact or large volcanic eruption and it takes place then because it is a more efficient way to redistribute heat with the gulf stream ON than the classical mode#2 modelled by Jason.
Would be nice if the arguers actually took note of the last 2.2 million years of similar events taking place naturally.
Once the gulf stream switches off it cannot distort and break up the cell over N.America that forms during climate mode#4 in response to an El Nino event. At that point the extremely efficient mode#4 will run until the oceanic heat is drained forming a large ice cap over the laurentide shield. The next to form will be either 24th or 26th since the Pleistocene geological period began with the pan american land bridge.
Have a nice day: Ag
Very interesting, but is earth due to fry or freeze this time round?

And, is CO2 the main culprit?
PHD

Houston, TX

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#86
Sep 20, 2012
 

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Earthling-1 wrote:
<quoted text>Very interesting, but is earth due to fry or freeze this time round?
And, is CO2 the main culprit?
NO YOU MORE USELESS BABBEL

“Geologist [I'm Climate Change]”

Since: Mar 07

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#87
Sep 24, 2012
 
Earthling-1 wrote:
<quoted text>Very interesting, but is earth due to fry or freeze this time round?
And, is CO2 the main culprit?
As with last result:

Initially fry (a century or two).
Then freeze (gulf stream shutdown & slow formation of the Laurentide ice cap.

Note that it will take on average about 3000 to 5000 years to grow the ice cap to its final size so the freeze effect will be slow but absolute.

Is rather like a change in thermostat conditions on an aircon, takes a while to change the temperature in the building afterward.

Have a nice day: Ag

“Happy, warm and comfortable”

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#88
Sep 24, 2012
 

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Adrian Godsafe MSc wrote:
As with last result:
Initially fry (a century or two).
Then freeze (gulf stream shutdown & slow formation of the Laurentide ice cap.
Note that it will take on average about 3000 to 5000 years to grow the ice cap to its final size so the freeze effect will be slow but absolute.
Is rather like a change in thermostat conditions on an aircon, takes a while to change the temperature in the building afterward.
Have a nice day: Ag
Hmmm, I see, so plenty of time for a snooze before the ice sheet takes over.
ֿ
SpaceBlues

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#89
Sep 24, 2012
 

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Adrian Godsafe MSc wrote:
<quoted text>
As with last result:
Initially fry (a century or two).
Then freeze (gulf stream shutdown & slow formation of the Laurentide ice cap.
Note that it will take on average about 3000 to 5000 years to grow the ice cap to its final size so the freeze effect will be slow but absolute.
Is rather like a change in thermostat conditions on an aircon, takes a while to change the temperature in the building afterward.
Have a nice day: Ag
Ag, how are you?

Do you study the human-induced climate change?

Your qualitative remarks are beginning to bother me. Can you please deal directly with the ever-increasing radiative forcing by the man-made CO2 pollution in our atmosphere? If you can't, please admit it.

I would like an honest response here.
SpaceBlues

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#90
Sep 25, 2012
 

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Recent controversy in long-term variations in sunspot field strengths - resolved

Nagovitsyn et al (2012) studied 1998-2011; the number of large sunspots gradually decreased, while the number of small sunspots increased. They resolved that this change in the ratio of small to large sunspots can explain the gradual decline in average sunspot field strength as noted by Penn and Livingston.

“Geologist [I'm Climate Change]”

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Nuneaton

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#91
Sep 26, 2012
 

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SpaceBlues wrote:
<quoted text>Ag, how are you?
Do you study the human-induced climate change?
Your qualitative remarks are beginning to bother me. Can you please deal directly with the ever-increasing radiative forcing by the man-made CO2 pollution in our atmosphere? If you can't, please admit it.
I would like an honest response here.
I personally cannot deal with it as being alive & animal I also produce CO2.

My field if study is in fact the Holocene as a result of an interest in volcanism and also associated seimicity involving the large Rebound/ long duration mercalli X earthquakes (r/lx) which relax the crust producing magma filled fractures in the deep crust imported from magma discs at the base of the solid crust/upper mantle which then squeeze into volcanoes as a result of arcs recompressing over a period of several centuries. A USA example of my field of study was 1964 (Alaska), also note 26/12/2004 and Central Chile 2010, and Tohoku(Japan) 2011.

The results of a long term study was due to the often mentioned effects of very large volcanic eruptions inducing cooling with occasional doom mongers saying that the big eruptions would "induce a new ice age". A long term look has found the doom mongers to be false. For the layman it means that while the Holocene interglacial continues... A big volcanic eruption up to and including the size of Toba ~74000 years ago (approx 7000Km3 of Rhyolite and a small amount of Dacite at eruption close), would not induce an ice age, and instead would drain oceanic heat out of the warming oceans returning the interglacial to the point between now, and the time when the gulf stream initially turned on (about 28000 years ago), depending upon the amount of cooling involved.

Personally I cannot reverse the warming trend, but a particularly large volcanic eruption can. Sadly for the area the volcanoes @ present are either not big enough or alternatively have not had a long magma filled fracture squeezing in following r/lx get anywhere near them. To reverse the current trend a dust veil index equivalent to a VEI 7 (about 300Km3) is required which will at the end of the cycle with modern day history back in the dark ages, return the current interglacial back to the time approx 600AD during the time of the last dark ages interval.

That last dark ages interval was caused by an impact of 2 small asteroids in the SE. part of the Gulf of Carpentaria Australia in approx October 535AD forming the 18Km Kanmare and 12Km Tabban craters and a blast wave heard and recorded in Chinese records. The event also resulted in a major seismic event causing sympathetic r/lx of arcs in E. Papua, New Britain & Bougainville,and also The lesser Sunda arc, Sanghie arc, Halmahera, and S. Philippines, with a major teletsunami of 10m+ in New Zealand, and tsunami heights in N. Australia of 30+m outside of the Gulf of carpentaria region (where the splash was bigger).

Ice ages are climate change driven rather than disaster driven.

Best thing to do is enjoy the heat and hpe for slow change rather than the rapid events.

Incidentally for those interested in preserving the Holocene, a "mangonel driven", or "rocket attachment driven" diversion of an asteroid about 3-5Km diameter into a collision path with Earth will significantly lengthen the interglacial timespan when it arrives.

Have a nice day: Ag
SpaceBlues

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#92
Sep 27, 2012
 

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Adrian Godsafe MSc wrote:
<quoted text>
I personally cannot deal with it as being alive & animal I also produce CO2.
My field if study is in fact the Holocene as a result of an interest in volcanism and also associated seimicity involving the large Rebound/ long duration mercalli X earthquakes (r/lx) which relax the crust producing magma filled fractures in the deep crust imported from magma discs at the base of the solid crust/upper mantle which then squeeze into volcanoes as a result of arcs recompressing over a period of several centuries. A USA example of my field of study was 1964 (Alaska), also note 26/12/2004 and Central Chile 2010, and Tohoku(Japan) 2011.
The results of a long term study was due to the often mentioned effects of very large volcanic eruptions inducing cooling with occasional doom mongers saying that the big eruptions would "induce a new ice age". A long term look has found the doom mongers to be false. For the layman it means that while the Holocene interglacial continues... A big volcanic eruption up to and including the size of Toba ~74000 years ago (approx 7000Km3 of Rhyolite and a small amount of Dacite at eruption close), would not induce an ice age, and instead would drain oceanic heat out of the warming oceans returning the interglacial to the point between now, and the time when the gulf stream initially turned on (about 28000 years ago), depending upon the amount of cooling involved.
Personally I cannot reverse the warming trend, but a particularly large volcanic eruption can. Sadly for the area the volcanoes @ present are either not big enough or alternatively have not had a long magma filled fracture squeezing in following r/lx get anywhere near them. To reverse the current trend a dust veil index equivalent to a VEI 7 (about 300Km3) is required which will at the end of the cycle with modern day history back in the dark ages, return the current interglacial back to the time approx 600AD during the time of the last dark ages interval.
That last dark ages interval was caused by an impact of 2 small asteroids in the SE. part of the Gulf of Carpentaria Australia in approx October 535AD forming the 18Km Kanmare and 12Km Tabban craters and a blast wave heard and recorded in Chinese records. The event also resulted in a major seismic event causing sympathetic r/lx of arcs in E. Papua, New Britain & Bougainville,and also The lesser Sunda arc, Sanghie arc, Halmahera, and S. Philippines, with a major teletsunami of 10m+ in New Zealand, and tsunami heights in N. Australia of 30+m outside of the Gulf of carpentaria region (where the splash was bigger).
Ice ages are climate change driven rather than disaster driven.
Best thing to do is enjoy the heat and hpe for slow change rather than the rapid events.
Incidentally for those interested in preserving the Holocene, a "mangonel driven", or "rocket attachment driven" diversion of an asteroid about 3-5Km diameter into a collision path with Earth will significantly lengthen the interglacial timespan when it arrives.
Have a nice day: Ag
Humor helps but only a little.

Forgive the personal nature of this post. I've not examined your physics, chemistry or mathematics prowess to judge your study flexibility. I'm willing to gamble that you have received what it takes in your formal education. Will you go ahead and review the latest in man-made global climate change scene? For example:

"The observed warming will be irreversible for many years into the future, and even larger temperature increases will occur as greenhouse gases continue to accumulate in the atmosphere. Avoiding this future warming will require a large and rapid reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions."

http://www.ametsoc.org/policy/2012climatechan...
PHD

Houston, TX

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#93
Sep 27, 2012
 

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Earthling-1 wrote:
<quoted text>Hmmm, I see, so plenty of time for a snooze before the ice sheet takes over.
ֿ
Now if we can get you to attend your mental help class and take your meds maybe just maybe you can be saved.

“Geologist [I'm Climate Change]”

Since: Mar 07

Nuneaton

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#94
Oct 1, 2012
 

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SpaceBlues wrote:
<quoted text>Humor helps but only a little.
Forgive the personal nature of this post. I've not examined your physics, chemistry or mathematics prowess to judge your study flexibility. I'm willing to gamble that you have received what it takes in your formal education. Will you go ahead and review the latest in man-made global climate change scene? For example:
"The observed warming will be irreversible for many years into the future, and even larger temperature increases will occur as greenhouse gases continue to accumulate in the atmosphere. Avoiding this future warming will require a large and rapid reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions."
http://www.ametsoc.org/policy/2012climatechan...
Been there: And done.

The results are important in the fact that an increase in heat shortens the time span before the gulf stream shuts down & mode#4 with attendent permanent El Nino breaks out & re forms the laurentide ice cap.

The last interglacial is the important bit to consider there. It was described as being hotter than present but in large part the now African species alive then were wiped out in Europe during the last glacial following the eruption of Toba 74000Bp, and the ultimate close of the glacial at ~35000Bp (coldest)which also removed the bulk of the boreal taiga of Europe & led to the demise of the forest dwelling Neanderthals. African large bodied species were largely prevented from recolonisation during this interglacial by the Mediterranean barrier.

A mean sum sea level study puts global sea level at the close of the last interglacial at ~6m above present and the last facies (tropical) were stormy with corals still alive & growing in Caribbean & the time (no obvious bleaching). Locally the shoreline at the close of the interglacial in UK looks almost the same as now but averaging 3 to 8m above the present and in most places being incut by current (Holocene) beaches.

I am of the opinion that the last interglacial was largely somewhat cooler than at present (definitely present day) and that the last interglacial close conditions which lasted about a millenium or so, will run at a much shorter time this time. Currently it is difficult to calculate the timespan required between the onset of the much more efficient climate mode#3 and the floods in N. Asia which produce a freshwater sheet in the Arctic ocean sufficient to shut off the Gulf stream.

Using a rough guesstimate I believe that the interval required to produce a major flood in N. Asia is a random interval time with mode#3 actually mature and running with "flooding marbles" (a monsoonally fed cutoff low in the temperate rainbelt stationary over a dot on the map while the monsoonal flow drifts E.) so could occur at any time with climate mode#3 active up & running & hot. This may take a few decades to a century depending on the vagaries of the solar cycle (additions or subtractions of minute percentage of solar heat). In a maunder minimum the interval time will be longer. The global sea level rise before the gulf stream switches off will as a result be a few cm to about a metre.
Other means of lengthening the timespan @ that point will be La nina conditions caused by the ice melt from impact of monsoonal flows on Antarctica resulting in cold water & bergy bits shutting down El Nino conditions (Just had one of those).

Bad news with mode#3 active (E travelling monsoonal roots, & pulsating monsoons with no fixed end date in both hemispheres where typical mode#2 monsoons typically operated by season + semi permanent El Nino due to pacific waster backed up ageins Americas)... is that global thermonuclear war officinados will probably not be able to get away with using the argument to cool the climate as mode#3 is much more efficient at redistributing tropical heat to cold spots, and as such the N. Asia flood scenario & gulf stream shutdown may occur right there & then.

To continue next...

“Geologist [I'm Climate Change]”

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#95
Oct 1, 2012
 

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Conclusions are that in the short term the anthropogenic heat spike is irreversible in the current climate conditions. Actually attempting to engineer the heat reduction is going to in large part make things worse by (if successful) a drop in CO2 levels, polar cooling and a rather heavy transfer of equatorial oceanic heat from the heat pool to the polar regions.
Note at this time that a big volcanic eruption (or a solar superminimum such as the last event with a blank sun for 3 years) may do more cooling in one go than we can manage by engineering. Analogy is baling out a sinking steel boat with lots of bullet holes in it via a hard hat. It may stay afloat a few seconds longer but that will be all.

A change in climate mode to the much more efficient climate mode#4 (3 fixed cells with the dominant draining the El Nino hot pool and transferring it to the pole with a return flow from pole to equator (growth of laurentide ice cap) will reverse all of the anthropogenic warming in a few centuries. The reason the Gulf stream has to swith OFF first is due to Geometry. The gulf stream when on switches the primary mode4 cell formed during a major El Nino about 10 degrees E. of its stable location with the result that the giant cell lasts a week before being broken up (handy @ present in interglacial times, it showed up in 1997 for a week).

Under conditions of global cooling caused by climate mode#4 the global warming argument becomes defunct.

Note that ALL glacial periods have started HOT
and all interglacial periods have started COLD.

Current conditions are just on the cusp of the generation of climate mode#3 which therefore largely runs in chaos mode with an active hemisphere centred on the Asia Pacific hot pool, and an inactive hemisphere with the monsoonal flows depressed and heavy temperate rainbelt precipitation. This year with the mode just swithing ON, the active hemisphere was centred over the South China sea and is now centred over Guam & moving E. and the inactive hemisphere was centred over the Atlantic just about @ the latitude of W. Africa. Lots of lousy weather over the UK as a result & major USA drought (remember that?).
Current results are that Mode#3 wraparound under current build to solar max will lead to a weak El Nino this winter, Next year may result in lots of fun & games in climate (Bush regime going gaga again). Will probably remain under interglacial conditions during this cycle.

Also need to point out a math error as a result of an underestimate of the crater size and percentage of plasma produced during impack being bounced up the vacuum tube through the atmosphere & kicked out into space (I did do this in 1996 after all).

To send global conditions back to the dark ages temperature (& social structure) an impactor of between 1.5 and 2.0Km is required with the former landing on a dry continent and the latter landing in a deep ocean.
To send global temperatures back to the conditions of the younger Dryas an impactor of beween 2.7 and 3Km is required. A small gulf stream fed snowcap/glacier may re form in Scandinavia after this event, & civilisation & bulk of species oustide of tropics would be history.
To send global temperatures back to the time of the Anglian glaciation when the global CO2 percentage was at its lowest would require an impactor af about 5Km The ice cap formed over fennoscandia fed by gulf stream summer & winter snow & pellet hail may reach similar dimensions to the Anglain ice cap when the gulf stream switched back On inder coldest conditions. At that point the UK Ice limit was South downs hills & N. Devon/Exmoor area, and in Europe connected the Alps and fennoscandian ice cap.

Would strongly reccommend not doing that last one as Human species and bulk of other megafauna larger than a sheep may be history afterward.

The window time for catastrophic geoengineering is also likely to be short. Gulf stream shutdown is likely in 2 to 10 decades from now.

Have a nice day: Ag

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