Southwest U. S. may face 'megadrought' this century

There are 5 comments on the Science Daily story from Aug 27, 2014, titled Southwest U. S. may face 'megadrought' this century. In it, Science Daily reports that:

Due to global warming, scientists say, the chances of the southwestern United States experiencing a decade long drought is at least 50 percent, and the chances of a "megadrought" - one that lasts over 30 years - ranges from 20 to 50 percent over the next century.

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SpaceBlues

Houston, TX

#1 Aug 27, 2014
The study by Cornell University, University of Arizona and U.S. Geological Survey researchers will be published in a forthcoming issue of the American Meteorological Society's Journal of Climate.

Abstract

Projected changes in global rainfall patterns will likely alter water supplies and ecosystems in semiarid regions during the coming century. Instrumental and paleoclimate data indicate that natural hydroclimate fluctuations tend to be more energetic at low (multidecadal to multicentury) than at high (interannual) frequencies. State-of-the-art global climate models do not capture this characteristic of hydroclimate variability, suggesting that the models underestimate the risk of future persistent droughts. Methods are developed here for assessing the risk of such events in the coming century using climate model projections as well as observational (paleoclimate) information. Where instrumental and paleoclimate data are reliable, these methods may provide a more complete view of prolonged drought risk. In the US Southwest, for instance, state-of-the-art climate model projections suggest the risk of a decade-scale megadrought in the coming century is less than 50%; our analysis suggests that the risk is at least 80%, and may be higher than 90% in certain areas. The likelihood of longer lived events (> 35 years) is between 20% and 50%, and the risk of an unprecedented 50 year megadrought is non-negligible under the most severe warming scenario (5-10%). These findings are important to consider as adaptation and mitigation strategies are developed to cope with regional impacts of climate change, where population growth is high and multidecadal megadroughtóworse than anything seen during the last 2000 yearsówould pose unprecedented challenges to water resources in the region.
truth-facts

Chillicothe, OH

#2 Aug 27, 2014
SpaceBlues wrote:
The study by Cornell University, University of Arizona and U.S. Geological Survey researchers will be published in a forthcoming issue of the American Meteorological Society's Journal of Climate.
Abstract
Projected changes in global rainfall patterns will likely alter water supplies and ecosystems in semiarid regions during the coming century. Instrumental and paleoclimate data indicate that natural hydroclimate fluctuations tend to be more energetic at low (multidecadal to multicentury) than at high (interannual) frequencies. State-of-the-art global climate models do not capture this characteristic of hydroclimate variability, suggesting that the models underestimate the risk of future persistent droughts. Methods are developed here for assessing the risk of such events in the coming century using climate model projections as well as observational (paleoclimate) information. Where instrumental and paleoclimate data are reliable, these methods may provide a more complete view of prolonged drought risk. In the US Southwest, for instance, state-of-the-art climate model projections suggest the risk of a decade-scale megadrought in the coming century is less than 50%; our analysis suggests that the risk is at least 80%, and may be higher than 90% in certain areas. The likelihood of longer lived events (> 35 years) is between 20% and 50%, and the risk of an unprecedented 50 year megadrought is non-negligible under the most severe warming scenario (5-10%). These findings are important to consider as adaptation and mitigation strategies are developed to cope with regional impacts of climate change, where population growth is high and multidecadal megadroughtóworse than anything seen during the last 2000 yearsówould pose unprecedented challenges to water resources in the region.
Trolling again,you'll never learn.
SpaceBlues

Houston, TX

#3 Aug 27, 2014
truth-facts wrote:
<quoted text>
Trolling again,you'll never learn.
You never learn anything. You are the troll..

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Jump to: navigation, search

"Trolling" redirects here. For other uses, see Troll (disambiguation).

For a Wikipedia essay on the topic, see meta:What is a troll?


In Internet slang, a troll (/&#712;tro&#650;l/,/ &#712;tr&#594;l/) is a person who sows discord on the Internet by starting arguments or upsetting people,[1] by posting inflammatory,[2] extraneous, or off-topic messages in an online community (such as a newsgroup, forum, chat room, or blog) with the deliberate intent of provoking readers into an emotional response[3] or of otherwise disrupting normal on-topic discussion.[4]

This sense of the word troll and its associated verb trolling are associated with Internet discourse, but have been used more widely. Media attention in recent years has equated trolling with online harassment. For example, mass media has used troll to describe "a person who defaces Internet tribute sites with the aim of causing grief to families."[5][6]

P.S. What I posted is the abstract of the source paper. That's not trolling.
truth-facts

Chillicothe, OH

#4 Aug 27, 2014
SpaceBlues wrote:
<quoted text>
You never learn anything. You are the troll..
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Jump to: navigation, search
"Trolling" redirects here. For other uses, see Troll (disambiguation).
For a Wikipedia essay on the topic, see meta:What is a troll?
In Internet slang, a troll (/&#712;tro&#650;l/,/ &#712;tr&#594;l/) is a person who sows discord on the Internet by starting arguments or upsetting people,[1] by posting inflammatory,[2] extraneous, or off-topic messages in an online community (such as a newsgroup, forum, chat room, or blog) with the deliberate intent of provoking readers into an emotional response[3] or of otherwise disrupting normal on-topic discussion.[4]
This sense of the word troll and its associated verb trolling are associated with Internet discourse, but have been used more widely. Media attention in recent years has equated trolling with online harassment. For example, mass media has used troll to describe "a person who defaces Internet tribute sites with the aim of causing grief to families."[5][6]
P.S. What I posted is the abstract of the source paper. That's not trolling.
Go cry to someone else Jr.
SpaceBlues

Houston, TX

#5 Aug 27, 2014
Don't feed the TROLL, hahahahahaha

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