Hurricanes reaching peak strength far...

Hurricanes reaching peak strength farther north as globe warms, tropics expand

There are 4 comments on the The Washington Post story from May 14, 2014, titled Hurricanes reaching peak strength farther north as globe warms, tropics expand. In it, The Washington Post reports that:

As the Earth's oceans have warmed over the last three decades, the grounds for destructive hurricanes have crept northward finds a new study, published by three of the world's leading tropical weather experts.

Join the discussion below, or Read more at The Washington Post.

SpaceBlues

Humble, TX

#1 May 14, 2014
From Nature.com :

An analysis of historical storm data reveals that the average latitude at which tropical cyclones attain their maximum intensity has undergone a pronounced shift towards the poles over the past three decades.

P.S. Poleward.
Cordwainer Trout

Elizabethtown, KY

#2 May 14, 2014
What nonsense. The oceans have not warmed. These nutcases have no data to suggest such. If they had warmed, they would have expanded. If they had expanded, the sea level islands in the Pacific would have been covered with water. The sea level islands in the Pacific have not been covered with water. There has been no sea level rise. These people are full of crap and are fear mongers, just like the previous Marxist Democrat fear mongers during the Carter administration. They said our cities would be under water by the year 2000. The cities were not under water by the year 2000. The city engineers haven't had to design any bridge, or thoroughfares at higher levels. The sea levels at the city's edge have not risen one inch. These people are idiots.
Cordwainer Trout

Elizabethtown, KY

#3 May 14, 2014
This is what it is ALL about: GRANTS, Government Grants and teat sucking Marxists wanting to expand their control of your lives so they can have a hot tub to rape nine year old boys and plenty of AIDS medication.
SpaceBlues

Houston, TX

#4 May 15, 2014
But even that estimate could be understated as it does not take into account simultaneous melting that is occurring elsewhere -- in Greenland for instance.

None of this is a new idea. In 1978, researcher J.H. Mercer of the Institute of Polar Studies published his findings and theory that increased carbon dioxide emissions could cause enough of a rise in surface temperatures that it would threaten the delicate West Antarctic ice sheet. The summary of his findings, published in Nature in January of that year:


If the global consumption of fossil fuels continues to grow at its present rate, atmospheric CO2 content will double in about 50 years. Climatic models suggest that the resultant greenhouse warming effect will be greatly magnified in high latitudes. The computed temperature rise at lat 80 [degrees] S could start rapid deglaciation of West Antarctica, leading to a 5 m rise in sea level.


According to a NASA press release, a joint study conducted between NASA and scientists at the University of California, Irvine, drew on 40 years of observations, including satellite images using radar interferometry. Interferometry uses satellite radar to precisely measure the ice sheet's vertical movement and determine with millimeter precision the line of contact with the ground beneath.

Coincidentally, a second group of scientists from the University of Washington conducted an independent analysis using different means and came to similar conclusions. The two groups decided to release their results on the same day.

At root is warmer water stirred by stronger Antarctic winds, both fed by a warming of the planet caused in part by manmade greenhouse gases. The glacier ice extends from the land into shallower water and beyond, with part of the glacier floating on water. As warmer water melts the underside, the ice sheet thins and the part that is in contact with the shallow sea floor retreats.

Researchers have now determined the extent of that unseen melting, precisely identifying the retreat of the ground line -- the border between grounded and floating glacier ice. The conclusion is that the melting is happening faster than anticipated and is likely to continue, even if the warming of the water were to suddenly stop.

Surrounding glaciers are protected in part by this sea level ice sheet and will give way on their own in response to the weakness of their neighbor. The six immediate-vicinity glaciers together will likely raise global sea levels by 4 feet, while the risk is for even further melting that could ultimately raise global sea levels by 10 feet.

Reading that paper, it is clear that Mercer understood precisely the mechanism by which the West Antarctic ice sheet would destabilize. His work laid the groundwork for that done by the current generation of scientists, who now, 36 years later, have proven the validity of his projections.

A 10-foot rise in sea levels means South Florida will be swamped; Key West, Miami Beach and parts of Fort Myers will be mostly underwater, their buildings and infrastructure abandoned, growing mold and in ruins. In New York, JFK Airport would be flooded, Battery Park under water, riverside property on both sides of Manhattan will need to be demolished. Forget what you've seen in sci-fi movies: in our time, you can't live on the 10th floor of a building if the foundation is under water.

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