Global warming could change strength of El Nino
New research published in Nature Geoscience using coral samples from Kiribati has revealed how the ENSO cycle has changed over the past 4300 years.
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#1 Sep 11, 2013
From the article
"For instance, we found that the ENSO cycle was much weaker 4300 years ago than it is today. This weaker cycle persisted for almost two centuries."
Historically this was a very cold time period. It was so cold that evidence of cannibalism exists even in areas of civilization. For further research look up Ancient Egypt.
#2 Sep 11, 2013
That supports the link. Warmer temperatures (AGW) mean stronger ENSO cycles. Cooler climate means weaker ENSO cycles. Climate (cycle) is a 'heat engine' that gets stronger with hotter fuel..
With any region to choose from, from Borneo to Iqualuit, it is hard to say why you chose Egypt. It will be cold SOMEWHERE on the planet for sure. And cannibalism wasn't all that rare in the stone age. Which had to do with lack of organized food sources (farming) and regional conflict (tribal warfare) more than temperature.
Even Egypt would not be considered 'civilized' in modern terms back then. There was continual warfare between the upper and lower Nile and the floods that fertilized the Nile Valley were eratic enough to inspire the "7 years of plenty" vs "7 years of famine" in the bible era two thousand years later.
But long term climate changes such as the drying of the monsoons that killed off the Harrapan civilizaton of the Indus Valley were more important. MOST climate change disasters were caused by local practices such as logging (deforestation) or overhunting. But some were due to the warming as we exited the ice age.
Those who are interested may find something in..
#3 Sep 12, 2013
Here I found an easy read for you. The Egyptians were so civilized that there is written accounts of the time period involved.
"Lo, the desert claims the land Towns are ravaged, Upper Egypt became a wasteland Lo, everyone's hair [has fallen out] Lo, great and small say,'I wish I were dead' Lo, children of nobles are dashed against walls Infants are put on high ground Food is lacking Wearers of fine linen are beaten with [sticks] Ladies suffer like maidservants Lo, those who were entombed are cast on high grounds Men stir up strife unopposed Groaning is throughout the land, mingled with laments See now the land deprived of kingship What the pyramid hid is empty [The] People are diminished."
Didn't have a chance to read it all but scanned it and I think it supports what I said in the first post. If it doesn't I'm sure you'll let me know.
Oh and I liked this quote from your source.
"Even Egypt would not be considered 'civilized' in modern terms back then. There was continual warfare between the upper and lower Nile.."
If that the measure of civilization, where does it put us?
#4 Sep 12, 2013
Climate plays a huge part in man's development. That's why our first gods were the suns, rains, thunder, snow queens etc.
Climate defines our migrations and population increases, warmer time periods are opportunities for exploring the wider world as food supplies were more readily available.
When it gets cold we see the famines and populations decline.
History is written around the climate and man's reaction to it that's why those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it.
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