Official: Russian disaster sign of global warming

Aug 16, 2010 Full story: My Mother Lode 45

Russia's heat wave, drought and wildfires - which have killed dozens of people and destroyed millions of acres of wheat - are another indication that global warming is causing more weather extremes around the world, a Russian official said Monday.

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#1 Aug 16, 2010
Is it global warming causing the fires or are the fires causing the heat?

This information was posted by a poster identified as
"The Truth Matters" on the topix thread "Hottest Summer on Record" post 197.

So you say. However, the written records say otherwise.

1298: There was a wholesale death of animals. In the same year there was a drought, and the woods and peat bogs burnt.

1364: Halfway through summer there was a complete smoke haze, the heat was dreadful, the forests, bogs and earth were burning, rivers dried up. The same thing happened the following year ...

1431: following a blotting out of the sky, and pillars of fire, there was a drought –“the earth and the bogs smouldered, there was no clear sky for 6 weeks, nobody saw the sun, fishes, animals and birds died of the smoke.

1735: Empress Anna wrote to General Ushakov:“Andrei Ivanovich, here in St Petersburg it is so smoky that one cannot open the windows, and all because, just like last year, the forests are burning. We are surprised that no-one has thought about how to stem the fires, which are burning for the second year in a row”.

1831: Summer was unbearably hot, and as a consequence of numerous fires in the forests, there was a constant haze of smoke in the air, through which the sun appeared a red hot ball; the smell of burning was so strong, that it was difficult to breathe.

The years of 1839-1841 were known as the “hungry years”. In the spring of 1840, the spring sowings of corn disappeared in many places. From midway through April until the end of August not a drop of rain fell. From the beginning of summer the fields were covered with a dirty grey film of dust. All the plants wilted, dying from the heat and lack of water. It was extraordinarily hot and close, even though the sun, being covered in haze, shone very weakly through the haze of smoke. Here and there in various regions of Russia the forests and peat bogs were burning (the fires had begun already in 1939). there was a reddish haze, partially covering the sun, and there were dark, menacing clouds on the horizon. There was a choking stench of smoke which penetrated everywhere, even into houses where the windows remained closed.

1868: the weather was murderous. It rained once during the summer. There was a drought. The sun, like a red hot cinder, glowed through the clouds of smoke from the peat bogs. Near Peterhoff the forests and peat workings burnt, and troops dug trenches and flooded the subterranean fire. It was 40 centigrade in the open, and 28 in the shade.

1868: a prolonged drought in the northern regions was accompanied by devastating fires in various regions. Apart from the cities and villages affected by this catastrophe, the forests, peat workings and dried-up marshes were burning. In St Petersburg region smoke filled the city and its outlying districts for several weeks.

1875: While in western Europe there is continual rain and they complain about the cold summer, here in Russia there is a terrible drought. In southern Russia all the cereal and fruit crops have died, and around St Petersburg the forest fires are such that in the city itself, especially in the evening, there is a thick haze of smoke and a smell of burning. Yesterday, the burning woods and peat bogs threatened the ammunition stores of the artillery range and even Okhtensk gunpowder factory.
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#2 Aug 16, 2010
continued...

1885:(in a letter from Peter Tchaikovsky, composer): I’m writing to you at three o'clock in the afternoon in such darkness, you would think it was nine o'clock at night. For several days, the horizon has been enveloped in a smoke haze, arising, they say, from fires in the forest and peat bogs. Visibility is diminishing by the day, and I’m starting to fear that we might even die of suffocation.

1917 (diary of Aleksandr Blok, poet): There is a smell of burning, as it seems, all around the city peat bogs, undergrowth and trees are burning. And no-one can extinguish it. That will be done only by rain and the winter. Yellowish-brown clouds of smoke envelope the villages, wide swathes of undergrowth are burning, and God sends no rain, and what wheat there is in the fields is burning.

It seems to be a regular occurrence - contrary to alarmist claims.
Earthling

Spain

#3 Aug 16, 2010
Is it possible that all the recent and past devastating weather events are linked to a stalled jet stream?
Is this the missing link?
Is solar activity the cause of changes in the regional jetstream flows?
Google >stalled jet stream< and decide for yourself.
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#4 Aug 16, 2010
I think all recent weather events are tied to all weather makers. Solar, ocean occillations, atmospheric conveyors, orbital dynamics, if its a climate maker then it is part of the reason we see the 'climate' we see.
Earthling

Spain

#5 Aug 16, 2010
Fun Facts wrote:
I think all recent weather events are tied to all weather makers. Solar, ocean occillations, atmospheric conveyors, orbital dynamics, if its a climate maker then it is part of the reason we see the 'climate' we see.
Agreed, but little attention has been paid to the jet stream, a stalling of which, many meteorologists are claiming is the cause of current extreme weather anomalies.
http://www.heatisonline.org/contentserver/obj...
Is it one of the missing links twixt Sun and Earth.

Since: Apr 08

"the green troll"

#6 Aug 16, 2010
It's not that there haven't been fires or heatwaves, it's that this is the worst for 1000 years- based on records.
“We have an ‘archive’ of abnormal weather situations stretching over a thousand years. It is possible to say there was nothing similar to this on the territory of Russia during the last one thousand years in regard to the heat,” Alexander Frolov said.
http://climateprogress.org/2010/08/09/russia-...

Since: Apr 08

"the green troll"

#7 Aug 16, 2010
Earthling wrote:
Is it possible that all the recent and past devastating weather events are linked to a stalled jet stream?
Is this the missing link?
Is solar activity the cause of changes in the regional jetstream flows?
Google >stalled jet stream< and decide for yourself.
Solar activity changes according to an 11 cycle. Why didn't we see this sort of heatwave 11 years ago? Because the warming that's happening because of the extra CO2 we're adding to the atmosphere has something to do with it as well of course.
Professor Hoskins does not expect a drastic change in the way blocking events happen, though their locations may alter a bit. The climate-change message from what is going on this summer, he says, is not to do with the blocking itself, but its consequences. In a cooler world, this sort of high pressure over Russia would be less likely to result in such a dramatic heatwave; nor, probably, would the floods in Pakistan have been so bad.
http://www.economist.com/blogs/newsbook/2010/...
Earthling

Spain

#8 Aug 16, 2010
Fair Game wrote:
It's not that there haven't been fires or heatwaves, it's that this is the worst for 1000 years- based on records.
I'm sure we can implicitly trust 1,000 year old records.
[insert sarcasm smilie here]
Earthling

Spain

#9 Aug 16, 2010
Fair Game wrote:
Solar activity changes according to an 11 cycle. Why didn't we see this sort of heatwave 11 years ago? Because the warming that's happening because of the extra CO2 we're adding to the atmosphere has something to do with it as well of course.
-
Professor Hoskins does not expect a drastic change in the way blocking events happen, though their locations may alter a bit. The climate-change message from what is going on this summer, he says, is not to do with the blocking itself, but its consequences. In a cooler world, this sort of high pressure over Russia would be less likely to result in such a dramatic heatwave; nor, probably, would the floods in Pakistan have been so bad.
Apart from, "wiggles" and, "wiggling," Hoskins doesn't say much about AGW being the cause of jetstream stalling?
In fact he goes on to say, "A single heatwave cannot be said to have been caused by global climate change; but what is known about climate change says such heatwaves are now more probable than they were."
"More probable," science speak for, maybe.
Northie

Spokane, WA

#10 Aug 16, 2010
Has anyone linked the Russian heat wave to the extreme monsoon devastating Pakistan? The monsoons are driven by central continental heat drawing in warm, moist tropical sea air from the southeast until it hits mountains and dumps its rain. Stands to reason that a hot Russia would mean a flooded Pakistan and China, and that's what we now see.
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#11 Aug 16, 2010
Earthling wrote:
<quoted text>Agreed, but little attention has been paid to the jet stream, a stalling of which, many meteorologists are claiming is the cause of current extreme weather anomalies.
http://www.heatisonline.org/contentserver/obj...
Is it one of the missing links twixt Sun and Earth.
here's a good article I found while looking for a jet stream/solar relationship.

http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg2062764...

One of the statements in this article mirror what I have found in other research, the sun's magnetic field is decreasing. Sunspots are one way to see the effect of the solar magnetic activity. Sunspots are what most people think of when they think of solar activity.

The sun is more than spots and many of the impacts on climate are not as noticible as spots. Ultraviolet light is now being studied as a major contributor to the ozone and the stratosphere's 'climate'. I wasn't able to find something directly related to the jet stream other than correlations. The more ultraviolet light in the stratosphere, the less strength in the jet stream. Scientist has been measuring an increasing amount of ultraviolet light in the stratosphere.

If we could transport ourselves just 100 years into the future, I think we would be amazed at just how little, we here in 2010, know about the main source of energy for our earth and our solar system.

100 years ago, we thought the milky way galaxy was the universe.
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#12 Aug 16, 2010
Fair Game wrote:
<quoted text>
Solar activity changes according to an 11 cycle. Why didn't we see this sort of heatwave 11 years ago? Because the warming that's happening because of the extra CO2 we're adding to the atmosphere has something to do with it as well of course.
<quoted text>
http://www.economist.com/blogs/newsbook/2010/...
Actually, we did, 1998. Now before you do the math and determine that 1998 was 12 years ago, remember cycle 23 was longer than the 11 year average cycle. 2010 is the second year of cycle 24 and 1998 was the second year of cycle 23.

But that is only coincidence. The stalling of the jet stream is not what causes the heat wave, it is thought to be what causes the cold.

There is a heat wave in Russia and in South America they are having record cold. But if I remember correctly the temps of a singular location do not indicate global warming.
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#13 Aug 16, 2010
Fair Game wrote:
It's not that there haven't been fires or heatwaves, it's that this is the worst for 1000 years- based on records.
<quoted text>
http://climateprogress.org/2010/08/09/russia-...
Did you read the first two posts, those are written records. Can you provide that level of detail to support your claim?
Northie

Spokane, WA

#14 Aug 16, 2010
FYI, about the Russian/Pakistani weather connection, it appears the Russian heat and Pakistani flooding are indeed likely both the result of an extreme monsoon cycle driven by extra heat. The word comes from none other than Kevin Trenberth:

http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2010/08/rus...
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#15 Aug 16, 2010
Northie wrote:
FYI, about the Russian/Pakistani weather connection, it appears the Russian heat and Pakistani flooding are indeed likely both the result of an extreme monsoon cycle driven by extra heat. The word comes from none other than Kevin Trenberth:
http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2010/08/rus...
“We HAVEN'T DONE THE STUDIES, but there’s VERT GOOD REASON TO SUSPECT that there’s a relationship,” said Kevin Trenberth, head of climate analysis at the National Center for Atmospheric Research.“It’s simply related to the idea that there is a monsoon with very large circulation. There’s an upwards branch of it. There HAS TO BE a downwards branch somewhere else.” EMPHASIS ADDED

Read More http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2010/08/rus...
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#16 Aug 16, 2010
SORRY FOR THE TYPO KEVIN
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#19 Aug 16, 2010
Wow lite song that is the first intelligent thing I have seen you post. Congratulations. I didn't think you had it in you.
Earthling

Spain

#21 Aug 17, 2010
Northie wrote:
Has anyone linked the Russian heat wave to the extreme monsoon devastating Pakistan? The monsoons are driven by central continental heat drawing in warm, moist tropical sea air from the southeast until it hits mountains and dumps its rain. Stands to reason that a hot Russia would mean a flooded Pakistan and China, and that's what we now see.
Read much?
Plenty of links to the link between the two events here:
http://www.topix.com/forum/news/global-warmin...
Earthling

Spain

#22 Aug 17, 2010
Northie wrote:
FYI, about the Russian/Pakistani weather connection, it appears the Russian heat and Pakistani flooding are indeed likely both the result of an extreme monsoon cycle driven by extra heat. The word comes from none other than Kevin Trenberth:
You mean the same guy who lost warming and said it was a travesty that it couldn't be found?
So he's found it at last?
Norfie, I have a cheap castle for sale, are you interested?
Earthling

Spain

#23 Aug 17, 2010
Fun Facts wrote:
“We HAVEN'T DONE THE STUDIES, but there’s VERY GOOD REASON TO SUSPECT that there’s a relationship,” said Kevin Trenberth, head of climate analysis at the National Center for Atmospheric Research.“It’s simply related to the idea that there is a monsoon with very large circulation. There’s an upwards branch of it. There HAS TO BE a downwards branch somewhere else.” EMPHASIS ADDED
Read More http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2010/08/rus...
So they haven't done any studies, but they have good reason to suspect?
Sounds like a badly worded message direct from the Vatican.
Keep the believers fearful.

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