Looks like the sediment is still compressing between the Elburz & the Caucasus arcs.
Azerbaijan is actually a 2nd arc attached to the Arabian plate that is being compressed sideways by this convergence (as seen in the quake).
Last megathrust break between Caucasus & Elburz was the same as the Alpine backrange, The Turkish & Aegan arcs, The Tyrrhenian & also the Tunis & Iberian arcs; & also... the Pashtun range, Pamir(N & NE junction box), & the Taklamakan & Turfan arcs between N. China, Mongolia & the Eurasian plate. This appears to have happened approx. 14,500BC or thereabouts (may be 1000+ years earlier) & relaxed the crust of the Eurasian plate. All the volcanism in the Caucasus & Elburz region has been due to crustal recompression squeezing out the fractures in the deep crust filled with magma from the upper mantle during the crustal relaxation event.
Still not ale to gauge the time of the last crustal relaxation megathrust quake in the Azerbaijan & Georgia arcs related to the volcanism in the Armenian, Georgian & Azerbaijan region. The van arc (E.Turkey) however was part of the Caucasus-Elburz chain.
The fact that the forearc in Azerbaijan hosts active mud volcanoes indicates that the area is fairly compressed. Whether the locals are going gaga is a moot point (the locals have been bathing in crude oil for centuries, which seems to produce a 100% mortality vs parasites & hangers on from the numerous animal herds being traded thereabouts in historic time).
No signs of locals mud bathing,(may be a mite hot, but reportage may also be lacking).
Thus far the outbreak of gaga appears to be centred around the Toros-Cyprus arc & the armegeddon arc (W.Lebanon), which appears to be approaching a megathrust event. the displayed symptoms of gaga in that dot on the map are classic (& have happened before, culminating in a bloody great big quake & large tsunami). Expected vector is SW from Toros-cyprus, and possibly NE from Armageddon, but may also be SW If the area attempts to pass the buck by involving Israel (has happened before hence the name of the arc from the megathrust forefront).
I will keep watching that space (not a place to go visit unless on work assignment).
have a nice day: Ag