NASA: Global warming increases the risk of extreme weather

May 6, 2013 | Posted by: roboblogger | Full story: TG Daily

The study shows for the first time how rising carbon dioxide concentrations could affect the entire range of rainfall types on Earth.

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SpaceBlues

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#1
May 6, 2013
 

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Hey closet deniers, where are your negative icons?

"But if we look at the entire spectrum of rainfall types we see all the models agree in a very fundamental way - projecting more heavy rain, less moderate rain events, and prolonged droughts."
Read more at http://www.tgdaily.com/space-features/71450-n...
Fun Facts

Las Cruces, NM

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#2
May 6, 2013
 

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I noticed:

"The models project for every 1 degree Fahrenheit of carbon dioxide-induced warming"
Read more at http://www.tgdaily.com/space-features/71450-n...

If the 1 degree increased is not carbon dixoide-induced, does the projection hold?

I took a look at CO2 and Hadcrut4. Looks to me like the warming isn't keeping up with the CO2. When I added the trends since 1979, CO2 appears to be increasing not only in volume but in the rate of increase.

Temperatures do not appear to have the same activity. In fact the rate of increase appears to be slowing down.

http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/esrl-co2/fro...

http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/f...

Maybe if it's CO2 induced warming that will create the computer models projected precipitation patterns, we really don't have much to worry about.

Since: Apr 08

"the green troll"

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#3
May 6, 2013
 

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Fun Facts wrote:
Temperatures do not appear to have the same activity. In fact the rate of increase appears to be slowing down.
A short period beginning with strong El Nino years and ending with strong La Nina years.

As will be obvious to anybody who knows what that means, your claim is a lie.

And you are a liar.

But deniers are all liars anyway.

Just yours are more brazen and childishly badly disguised.
Fun Facts

Las Cruces, NM

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#4
May 6, 2013
 

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Fair Game wrote:
<quoted text>
A short period beginning with strong El Nino years and ending with strong La Nina years.
As will be obvious to anybody who knows what that means, your claim is a lie.
And you are a liar.
But deniers are all liars anyway.
Just yours are more brazen and childishly badly disguised.
I chose the time period that it has been warming. Remember is didn't warm from about 1950 to 1980. Then warming happened, just like that.

http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/f...

Thought I'd add the CO2 graph for the same time period. For some reason CO2 was going up during the 1950 to 1980 time period but the temperatures were not.

http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/esrl-co2/fro...
SpaceBlues

Houston, TX

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#5
May 6, 2013
 

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In the 1,000 years that occurred before the Industrial Revolution of the 18th century, atmospheric carbon dioxide held steady at around 270 to 280 parts per million (ppm).

The most recent period to reach 400 ppm was the Pliocene Epoch, between 5 million and 3 million years ago, according to the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, which keeps track of the Keeling Curve.

Back then, it was a different world. Global average temperatures during the period were between 5.4 and 7.2 degrees Fahrenheit (3 to 4 degrees Celsius) higher than today, and sea level was as much as 131 feet (40 meters) higher in some places. Even the least-affected regions saw sea levels 16 feet (5 meters) higher than today's.

A major difference between then and now, though, is the speed at which carbon dioxide is rising today. Typically, in the last 40 to 50 years, the Keeling Curve shows increases of 2 to 2.5 ppm a year. In the 1950s and 1960s, carbon dioxide increased by less than 1 ppm each year, according to Scripps.

"We're on course for more than 450 ppm in a matter of decades if we don't get our fossil fuel emissions under control quite soon."
No Warming

Waverly, OH

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#6
May 6, 2013
 

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Comparing today to periods of warming from the past is what made "An Inconvenient Truth" a total fabrication. Even James Hansen says temps increased then centuries latter Co2 increased.
SpaceBlues

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May 6, 2013
 

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No Warming wrote:
Comparing today to periods of warming from the past is what made "An Inconvenient Truth" a total fabrication. Even James Hansen says temps increased then centuries latter Co2 increased.
LIAR. You should be ashamed of your lies.

Where's your evidence?
SpaceBlues

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#8
May 6, 2013
 

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Carbon dioxide emissions have been altering the climate since the Industrial Revolution, some 200 years ago, though it took us a while to figure that out. NASA scientist James Hansen first warned Congress about the dangers of greenhouse gases in 1988.

But an earlier climate warning came five decades previous, way back in 1938. Thatís when Guy Stewart Callendar, an engineer specializing in steam and power generation, published a paper that theorized that carbon dioxide emissions from industrial activity could have a greenhouse effect. His prescient paper appeared in the quarterly journal of the Royal Meteorological Society.

http://grist.org/news/we-have-known-about-cli...
Fun Facts

Las Cruces, NM

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#9
May 7, 2013
 

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No Warming wrote:
Comparing today to periods of warming from the past is what made "An Inconvenient Truth" a total fabrication. Even James Hansen says temps increased then centuries latter Co2 increased.
January 11, 2010

"Could we be in for 30 years of global COOLING?"

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12422...


This is about the ocean oscillations and the impact on climate. It is no surprise that our climate is changing and that natural variability is the cause.

When the sun is in high activity it enhances the positive mode of the ocean oscillations. The PDO, AO and MOC were all positive during our period of global warming. The sun was in very high activity during our period of global warming.

Now solar activity is low, the PDO negative, the AO back to it's normal pattern and the MOC still positive. When the oceans go negative and solar energy is low, temps cool.
No Warming

Waverly, OH

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May 7, 2013
 

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Fun Facts wrote:
<quoted text>
January 11, 2010
"Could we be in for 30 years of global COOLING?"
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12422...
This is about the ocean oscillations and the impact on climate. It is no surprise that our climate is changing and that natural variability is the cause.
When the sun is in high activity it enhances the positive mode of the ocean oscillations. The PDO, AO and MOC were all positive during our period of global warming. The sun was in very high activity during our period of global warming.
Now solar activity is low, the PDO negative, the AO back to it's normal pattern and the MOC still positive. When the oceans go negative and solar energy is low, temps cool.
Very interesting ! If we have a period of cooling lets hope its very brief, the warm period of the last century was a great benefit to man. With the number of people on the planet now a similar cooling period would be a huge disaster.
No Warming

Waverly, OH

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#11
May 7, 2013
 

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SpaceBlues wrote:
<quoted text>LIAR. You should be ashamed of your lies.
Where's your evidence?
I'm not posting Hansen lectures for you, you should know them by heart.
SpaceBlues

Houston, TX

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#12
May 7, 2013
 

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No Warming wrote:
<quoted text>
I'm not posting Hansen lectures for you, you should know them by heart.
So you lied .. like the other deniers.
SpaceBlues

Houston, TX

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#13
May 7, 2013
 

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No Warming wrote:
<quoted text>
Very interesting ! If we have a period of cooling lets hope its very brief, the warm period of the last century was a great benefit to man. With the number of people on the planet now a similar cooling period would be a huge disaster.
You are misrepresenting the current situation. What's your evidence?
Fun Facts

Las Cruces, NM

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May 8, 2013
 

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No Warming wrote:
<quoted text>
Very interesting ! If we have a period of cooling lets hope its very brief, the warm period of the last century was a great benefit to man. With the number of people on the planet now a similar cooling period would be a huge disaster.
The solar predictions vary but almost every solar physicists who is looking at low solar activity, even NASA now, is predicting very low cycles 25 and 26 after our current cycle 24.

Further not so good news, the PDO went negative in 2002/7, the typical duration of the phase shifts is 25 to 30 years. Lined up directly with the low solar activity.

Even IPCC famed Mike Lockwood is expecting a possible Dalton Minimum for our sun.

I posted this on another thread, kinda of tongue and cheek for the specific audience.

The ENSO is part of a larger system, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Yes the PDO is much more impactful than CO2.

When it was positive from 1977 to 2002/7 we had increasing temps and more El Ninos. There were still La Ninas during the same time period, but in a positive PDO, the El Nino rules.

Now we are in a negative PDO expect to continue for the next 25 years in this mode and the La Nina will be queen of the prom during this phase.

Here's the kicker. When the sun is in high actitivy during the positive phase of the PDO, it enhances the impact of the El Ninos. Makes them more powerful.

Our sun was in very high activity in the last half the the 20th century with the three cycles 21,22, and 23 being very high TSI,SSN values. The El Ninos were roaring.

The same phase that makes the El Ninos roar, mitigates the La Ninas. So the cooling effects of the La Nina during the 1979 to 2002/7 phase were mitigated by the very hot sun.

Now we are in very low solar activity and the PDO is negative. The La Ninas will be more impactful during this phase because the low solar activity will not mitigate their cooling power. It will mitigate the warming power of the El Ninos.
No Warming

Waverly, OH

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#15
May 8, 2013
 
Fun Facts wrote:
<quoted text>
The solar predictions vary but almost every solar physicists who is looking at low solar activity, even NASA now, is predicting very low cycles 25 and 26 after our current cycle 24.
Further not so good news, the PDO went negative in 2002/7, the typical duration of the phase shifts is 25 to 30 years. Lined up directly with the low solar activity.
Even IPCC famed Mike Lockwood is expecting a possible Dalton Minimum for our sun.
I posted this on another thread, kinda of tongue and cheek for the specific audience.
The ENSO is part of a larger system, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Yes the PDO is much more impactful than CO2.
When it was positive from 1977 to 2002/7 we had increasing temps and more El Ninos. There were still La Ninas during the same time period, but in a positive PDO, the El Nino rules.
Now we are in a negative PDO expect to continue for the next 25 years in this mode and the La Nina will be queen of the prom during this phase.
Here's the kicker. When the sun is in high actitivy during the positive phase of the PDO, it enhances the impact of the El Ninos. Makes them more powerful.
Our sun was in very high activity in the last half the the 20th century with the three cycles 21,22, and 23 being very high TSI,SSN values. The El Ninos were roaring.
The same phase that makes the El Ninos roar, mitigates the La Ninas. So the cooling effects of the La Nina during the 1979 to 2002/7 phase were mitigated by the very hot sun.
Now we are in very low solar activity and the PDO is negative. The La Ninas will be more impactful during this phase because the low solar activity will not mitigate their cooling power. It will mitigate the warming power of the El Ninos.
I have been looking at the PDO as a short term minimal effect variation. Today I looked a chart and was surprised, from 1950 till present the PDO shift mirrors the temperature trend. In my neck of the woods a cold trend is serious, given me some things to think about.

http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/
Fun Facts

Las Cruces, NM

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May 9, 2013
 

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No Warming wrote:
<quoted text>
I have been looking at the PDO as a short term minimal effect variation. Today I looked a chart and was surprised, from 1950 till present the PDO shift mirrors the temperature trend. In my neck of the woods a cold trend is serious, given me some things to think about.
http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/
Spent some years in Westerville. Moved to the SW where scraping snow off the windshield is seldom needed.

Not only is there the PDO but the Atlantic has a spaghetti bowl of oscillations.

In 1977 scientist saw a major climate shift in the pacific. They didn't know what it was and named it "The Great Pacific Climate Shift 1976/77". You can google that name and get more than a million references. The PDO wasn't given a name unitl the early 1990s.

Once 'discovered' it took a few decades to determine just what it did and then how many other oscillations were evident and what periocity their various cycles had and what impacts were the result.

For example, the Arctic Oscillation is a major player in the glacier mass balance in Europe. For North America, ENSO fills that role.

I think when viewing global warming the timeline is important. The initial discovery and the initial determination of the driver of the warming, CO2, happened before we knew a lot about how this system works.

An object in motion stays in motion, well a whole lot of people jumped on the band wagon and are now trying to get it to slow down so they can jump off.

Science was hijacked by politics. Politicians saw another way of controlling behavior thru taxation and ran with it. If you look at the IPCC their solutions are about raising money and distributing it to people who do not have it. A noble cause but not a solution to global warming.

So far you and I have only discussed two factors of the climate system and only a few of the impacts of those two factors. Climate is a million piece puzzle and it's not in 2D. All our various function have their own cycles and their own impact on everything else. They are 'layered' on top of each other and every phase of each has a different impact.

High activity sun + positive PDO + ENSO will produce one type of climate. Change any single factor and the impact will be different.

Posters will give data on the TSI values of the sun. To the best of our knowledge we can now measure TSI with some level of accuracy. But TSI doesn't tell us about the sun's heliosphere which is stronger and larger during high activity. The larger and stronger the heliosphere, the fewer cosmic rays enter our system. Fewer cosmic rays, fewer clouds in our atmosphere, more heat energy from the sun gets to the oceans.

The opposite is true when the sun is in low activity and we have more clouds which cool the climate.

TSI doesn't address the sun's magnetic field's impact on our earth's magnetic field. Or the solar wind which our mag field protects us from.

It appears we know a lot about CO2, now we need to learn a lot about the rest of it.
SpaceBlues

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#17
May 9, 2013
 

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Fossil fuel posted before me some wrong stuff as usual.

Unfortunately, for the first time in human history, atmospheric carbon dioxide levels will go over 400 parts per million, according Scripps Institution of Oceanography, which has been measuring carbon dioxide in the atmosphere at the Mauna Loa volcano in Hawaii since 1958.

ďThe 400-ppm threshold is a sobering milestone, and should serve as a wake-up call for all of us to support clean energy technology and reduce emissions of greenhouse gases, before itís too late for our children and grandchildren,Ē said Tim Lueker of the Scripps Institution in a statement.
litesong

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#18
May 9, 2013
 

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fun farts wrote:
...... we know a lot about CO2, now we need to learn a lot about the rest of it.
What 'fun farts' doesn't know, it assumes scientists don't know......... classic Dunning-Kruger syndrome. Yeah, yeah, yeah......'fun farts' is smarter than the scientists, even if they got 10-16 years more science & mathematics than 'fun farts'........ more Dunning-Kruger.
SpaceBlues

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May 9, 2013
 

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Amazon Deforestation, Brazil - a global timelapse of our planet, constructed from Landsat satellite imagery. The Amazon rainforest is shrinking at a rapid rate to provide land for farming and raising cattle. Each frame of the timelapse map is constructed from a year of Landsat satellite data, constituting an annual 1.7-terapixel snapshot of the Earth at 30-meter resolution. The Landsat program, managed by the USGS, has been acquiring images of the Earth's surface since 1972. Landsat provides critical scientific information about our changing planet.

http://earthengine.google.org/#intro/Amazon
Americano

Satellite Provider

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#20
May 14, 2013
 
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