The Handwriting Scale

[Henri McPhee]

This business of whether Patsy wrote the ransom note is a highly technical battle.

I did look into that matter of the five point scale and the nine point scale or eleven point scale, or whatever it is, a few years ago. What I discovered is that some professional document examination body in America introduced the nine or eleven point scale after the JonBenet murder.

I agree with fr Brown in a way that I’m not sure where Lin Wood and Alex Hunter got this five point scale. It could possibly be that Ubowski, the handwriting expert at the Colorado Bureau of Investigation, talked in terms of a five point scale?

You can’t just say, and jump to conclusions like Mark Fuhrman, that Patsy wrote the ransom note when six of the top experts in America have their doubts that she wrote it. I agree that there are experts who think Patsy wrote it, but it’s really only Epstein who would be an anti-Ramsey qualified to give expert evidence handwriting in a murder case.

Epstein based his conclusions on a copy of the original ransom note and on copies of Patsy’s exemplars. My own opinion is that Tom Miller could have forged and tampered with those Patsy exemplar copies to make them look like the ransom note. Miller then could have given the forged copies to Epstein for the Chris Wolf case. I could do that myself on my computer if nobody bothered to check the copies with the originals.

I believe Epstein needs to take another look at the Ramsey case ransom note and Patsy handwriting exemplars and compare the copies to the originals before his opinions in the Ramsey case can be taken seriously

[Henri McPhee]

This is what Judge Carnes said about Epstein in her 2003 ruling. As far as I'm concerned this is definitive:

"Here, as noted, several factors necessarily reduce the weight a reasonable juror could give to Epstein's conclusion.

First, Epstein did not consult the original Ransom Note nor obtain original exemplars from Mrs. Ramsey.

Second, as noted by defendants, Epstein deviated from the very methodology that he has previously asserted was necessary to make a reasoned judgment.

Most significant to the Court in its determination that Epstein's conclusion cannot carry the day for plaintiff, however, is the unanimity of opinion among six other experts that Mrs. Ramsey cannot be determined to have been the writer of the Note.

As noted supra, the Boulder Police Department and District Attorney's Office had consulted six other handwriting experts, all of whom reviewed the original Ransom Note and exemplars. Supra at 21-22. Although two of these experts were hired by defendants, four were independent experts hired by the police. None of these six experts were able to identify Mrs. Ramsey as the author of the Ransom Note. Instead, their consensus was that she "probably did not" write the Ransom Note. Supra at n. 14.

Given the contrary opinion of six other experts, whose ability to examine the documents was necessarily superior to Epstein's, and given Epstein's failure to explain the methodology by which he can make absolute pronouncements concerning the authorship of a document, this Court does not believe that a reasonable jury could conclude that Mrs. Ramsey was the author of the Ransom Note, solely on the basis of Epstein's professed opinion to that effect.

In reaching this conclusion, the Court is aware that it is not permitted to make credibility judgments in ruling on summary judgment motions. For example, were there six eyewitnesses on one side of a question and one eyewitness on the other side, the Court would not take from a jury the factual question on which these witnesses were testifying.

With regard to Epstein's testimony, however, the Court is not attempting to assess credibility. Mr. Epstein may sincerely believe that Mrs. Ramsey wrote the Note and the jury may well credit his sincerity.

Nevertheless, no matter how earnest Epstein may be, the fact remains that he has not explained his basis for reaching absolute certainty in his conclusion and, accordingly, the weight and impact of his testimony would necessarily be less than the weight of the contrary testimony of six other experts.

[fr brown]

Henri McPhee wrote:

T
I agree with fr Brown in a way that I’m not sure where Lin Wood and Alex Hunter got this five point scale. It could possibly be that Ubowski, the handwriting expert at the Colorado Bureau of Investigation, talked in terms of a five point scale?

No, it's not possible. In Lou Smit's deposition (see post #105) he recaps the opinions of the police experts. As a group, he characterizes their opinions as "inconclusive or below" and then says that this is 4.5.

On a 5 scale 4.5 is "highly probable did not write" not "inconclusive."

On the standard 9 scale, 4.5 is slightly more inclusive than "no conclusion." This is obviously what Smit means.

[fr brown]

I always like to evaluate things for myself so I'd like to look at Epstein's charts, the ones he wasn't allowed to present to Carnes. How about it, Candy?

Guest membership at FFJ for the purpose?

[CSIEngland]

Henri McPhee wrote:

You can’t just say, and jump to conclusions like Mark Fuhrman, that Patsy wrote the ransom note when six of the top experts in America have their doubts that she wrote it. I agree that there are experts who think Patsy wrote it, but it’s really only Epstein who would be an anti-Ramsey qualified to give expert evidence handwriting in a murder case.

I don't believe Mark Fuhrman just "jumped to a conclusion."

And where might we read the reports of those experts who concluded that Patsy did NOT write the note?