The Handwriting Scale
Anti-K

Sun Peaks, Canada

#146 Nov 9, 2009
CommonSense wrote:
<quoted text>
You've been misinformed.
First of all, a copy of the ransom note is identical to the original. That's why it's called a copy. I've been making copies of documents for years, and I have never seen a copy of a document in which the letters changed their shape, the word and sentence spacing changed, the wording itself changed. To say that someone needs the original document to make a determination is self-serving.
Secondly, these experts' conclusions are absolutely in dispute. Many other experts were able to determine that Patsy was the writer, based on the fact that so much of the writing in the ransom note matched her writing style exactly and the fact that it would be impossible for a random intruder to enter a ransom house and share so many writing habits with an occupant of that house. Do you get this?
The professional practice of handwriting analysis does not allow for a determination of 100% certainty, because it is circumstantial evidence. So it can't be proven that she wrote it or didn't write it. You choose to believe certain experts. That's your right, I suppose. People believe stupid things all the time.
I’ve not been misinformed at all and I’ve been pretty consistent in backing up claims with quotes/sources and links.
..

No one has disputed Ubowski’s findings, or the findings of any of the other BPD experts. There may be examiners who came to different conclusions, but I am not aware of any who have even seen Ubowski et. al’s analysis so I don’t see how anyone could legitimately criticize or dispute it. You’re just making up sh*t per usual.
..

Incidentally, I’ve not chosen to believe ANY of the experts; I merely take into account their opinions and I tend to categorize those opinions according to the expert’s qualifications, acceptance/reputation in the field, access to necessary and authenticated documents, etc.

AK
Anti-K

Sun Peaks, Canada

#147 Nov 9, 2009
fr brown wrote:
<quoted text>
It is tiresome, isn't it? I think even members of Patsy's family thought the handwriting looked like hers. Didn't one of them suggest that Priscilla White had copied Patsy's handwriting? Things like that do happen. We know that someone stole OJ's shoes to kill Nicole ;)
As far as I know it is only RDI who are having a problem accepting that Mrs Ramsey was NOT identified as the author.

AK
Anti-K

Sun Peaks, Canada

#148 Nov 9, 2009
fr brown wrote:
<quoted text>
But the original point of the thread was the dispute about the handwriting scale. I showed that the police handwriting experts' collective conclusions could not be characterized as "highly probable did not write" or even "probable did not write" , i.e., 4.5 or 4, even using the imaginary 5 scale. Smit himself says that collectively it should be "inconclusive or below."
Finally, your information from Steve Thomas shows where the mistake about the "five-point scale" comes from: Hunter's confusing the Five Daubert Reliability Factors with the standard nine-point scale used by handwriting examiners.
The question of how Hunter could make that mistake remains.
I would guess that Hunter made no such error and that Thomas is full of sh(t. his depo already proved that point.

AK
fr brown

Walnut Creek, CA

#149 Nov 9, 2009
Anti-K wrote:
The claim that Ubowski said something along the lines of “indications/evidence falls short” is not disputed by anyone, as far as I know; so, why do you keep bringing it up?
Wood challenges on the so many letters out of so many letters claim AND he challenges him on this:
2 Q.(BY MR. WOOD) After your book
3 came out, sir, were you aware that
4 Mr. Ubowski publicly denied the accuracy of
5 the statement that he concluded Patsy Ramsey
6 wrote the ransom note?
7 A. No. You're telling me this for
8 the first time.

If the 9 point scale is like this:
1) Identification
2) Highly probable did write
3) Probably did write
4) Indications did write
5) No conclusion
then, a 4.5 would be pretty much the bottom end of the Included side, below “Highly Probable did write” and certainly below “Probably did write.”
Inconclusive would mean that NO determination could be made either way.
AK
Hm. I remember someone saying something like this in post #13:
"AK: All six experts (four BPD experts plus two Ramsey experts) agreed that Mrs Ramsey "probably did not" write the note (4 = probably did not write; 4.5 = highly probable did not write)."

Ak,is that you? Ubowski, as we now know, did not conclude that Patsy probably did not write the note and the collective opinion of the examiners is not that she "probably did not." It's OK that you've changed your mind.

Here's what Thomas says about Ubowski in _JonBenet_:

"The Colorado Bureau of Investigation, after studying several of Patsy's handwriting exemplars, noted "evidence which indicates the questioned handwritten note may have been written by [Patricia Ramsey], but the evidence falls short of that necessary to support a definite conclusion." Chet Ubowski of the CBI, who was being asked to make the call of a lifetime, couldn't do it with courtroom certainty. Privately, however, Ubowski, who had made the early discovery that Patsy's handwriting was consistent with the ransom note on twenty-four of the twenty-six alphabet letters, had recently told one detective, "I believe she wrote it." p. 174,_JonBenet_, paperback.

According to Schiller, Ubowski told his boss, Pete Mang, that his gut told him that Patsy wrote the note.

There's nothing in Thomas' depo which is inconsistent with the above. Rather, Wood is confusing two things, what Ubowski was willing to say in private and what he would say "with courtroom certainty" so who's being disingenuous?

Ubowski rated Patsy a 4 to a 4.5 on the standard nine-point scale.
fr brown

Walnut Creek, CA

#150 Nov 9, 2009
Anti-K wrote:
I would guess that Hunter made no such error and that Thomas is full of sh(t. his depo already proved that point.
AK
Hunter confused the nine-point scale with five somethings or other. Maybe he'll tell us what they were someday.
koldkase

Athens, GA

#152 Nov 9, 2009
OH come on. 4.5 out of 9, can't rule her out...PATSY'S PAD, PEN, LANGUAGE, MEANS, AND OPPORTUNITY. Fibers from her clothes tied into the knots of the garrote. She lied to LE so many times. Lawyered up, obstructed the investigation at every turn.

What does it take to look suspicious to some people? Would a photo of her pulling the cord do it? I doubt it....

“Sarah Palin, Go Home!”

Since: Aug 09

Bexley, Ohio

#153 Nov 9, 2009
fr brown wrote:
<quoted text>
It is tiresome, isn't it? I think even members of Patsy's family thought the handwriting looked like hers. Didn't one of them suggest that Priscilla White had copied Patsy's handwriting? Things like that do happen. We know that someone stole OJ's shoes to kill Nicole ;)
I think it was Aunt Pam who suggested that Priscilla White had been borrowing Patsy DayTimer in order to practice copying her handwriting style. Crazy.

“Sarah Palin, Go Home!”

Since: Aug 09

Bexley, Ohio

#154 Nov 9, 2009
fr brown wrote:
<quoted text>
But the original point of the thread was the dispute about the handwriting scale. I showed that the police handwriting experts' collective conclusions could not be characterized as "highly probable did not write" or even "probable did not write" , i.e., 4.5 or 4, even using the imaginary 5 scale. Smit himself says that collectively it should be "inconclusive or below."
Finally, your information from Steve Thomas shows where the mistake about the "five-point scale" comes from: Hunter's confusing the Five Daubert Reliability Factors with the standard nine-point scale used by handwriting examiners.
The question of how Hunter could make that mistake remains.
Maybe Hunter made it "on purpose." He certainly didn't want to have to try the case against the Ramseys' high powered attorneys.
koldkase

Athens, GA

#155 Nov 9, 2009
CSIEngland wrote:
<quoted text>
Maybe Hunter made it "on purpose." He certainly didn't want to have to try the case against the Ramseys' high powered attorneys.
I tried to post the excerpt from Hunter's depo that jams has on her forum, but it won't show up for some reason. Fr brown noticed the two posts are missing,#127 and 151. Anyone see them?

At any rate, unless I've been banned and they forgot to tell me, if someone sees this, please let me know.

I did post that excerpt at FFJ on the "handwriting analysis" thread, at the end. Also, in the discussion from a couple of years ago, we document where Hunter GOT that scale, and it's from DOI. So yeah, Hunter quoted the Ramseys' fake scale, and that's how Team Ramsey has spread their disinformation for 12 years.
Legal_Eagle

Roanoke, VA

#156 Nov 9, 2009
I can see your post KK, but the two you mentioned are missing.

“Sarah Palin, Go Home!”

Since: Aug 09

Bexley, Ohio

#157 Nov 9, 2009
koldkase wrote:
<quoted text>
I tried to post the excerpt from Hunter's depo that jams has on her forum, but it won't show up for some reason. Fr brown noticed the two posts are missing,#127 and 151. Anyone see them?
At any rate, unless I've been banned and they forgot to tell me, if someone sees this, please let me know.
I did post that excerpt at FFJ on the "handwriting analysis" thread, at the end. Also, in the discussion from a couple of years ago, we document where Hunter GOT that scale, and it's from DOI. So yeah, Hunter quoted the Ramseys' fake scale, and that's how Team Ramsey has spread their disinformation for 12 years.
I'm glad Fr. Brown asked me to ask Steve and he told me. And now, thanks to you we have confirmation.

Like Legal Eagle, I saw your most recent post in this thread, but the two you mentioned still aren't showing up.
koldkase

Athens, GA

#158 Nov 9, 2009
Hm, that's strange. Jams posted Hunter's depo excerpt at the swamp long ago. She told people to take it to other forums! Gutter candy about had a stroke, of course, but then had to back down after accusing jams of breaking the law. Jams apparently posted a part that wasn't sealed.

Anyhow, wonder what oh what happened to my posts of the excerpt of Hunter's depo? What's it cost to get a post removed here now?$20? Nazis everywhere you go nowadays.

Hey, why don't y'all go copy that excerpt from FFJ and post it here? I hate censorship.

“Sarah Palin, Go Home!”

Since: Aug 09

Bexley, Ohio

#159 Nov 9, 2009
Well, here Hunter's mentioning Daubert, but the name is misspelled:

VAN SUSTEREN: Let me turn to the other, what I find particularly significant piece of evidence: the ransom note. In the Ramsey book, Patsy and John Ramsey write that John has been excluded from being the author of the note. And that Patty, on a one to five scale, five meaning excluded, hit 4.5. Do you endorse those two findings? Is that...

HUNTER: Well, I think that's close, but I think that this is a mumbo jumbo area, and we saw Judge Matsch in the McVeigh case, you know, not allow this handwriting stuff in. And I think it is stuff.

Frankly, if we ever have a trial here, and ransom note were to become a key piece of evidence against anybody, I would want the jury to be able to look at that, and hopefully be able to look at historical writings, and make sort of their own judgments.

I think these handwriting guys, you know, they have tried to build reliability in order to meet Fry and/or Dolbert, and in doing what, they have created such standards that -- Well that's why Matsch, I think, looking at his ruling, wouldn't allow that. He let the jury look at the note, or the writings, and make their own judgments.

So I think an awful lot is made of that, when in fact I'm not sure we are ever going to be able to get before a jury what these various handwriting people say about where they fit on a scale.
fr brown

Walnut Creek, CA

#160 Nov 10, 2009
koldkase wrote:
I did post that excerpt at FFJ on the "handwriting analysis" thread, at the end. Also, in the discussion from a couple of years ago, we document where Hunter GOT that scale, and it's from DOI. So yeah, Hunter quoted the Ramseys' fake scale, and that's how Team Ramsey has spread their disinformation for 12 years.
I doubt that Hunter would read an assertion in DOI and take it as gospel. If he'd heard it from somebody he considered authoritative, DOI might reinforce.

My suspicion is that the Ramseys and Hunter got it from someone else.
fr brown

Walnut Creek, CA

#161 Nov 10, 2009
koldkase wrote:
Hm, that's strange. Jams posted Hunter's depo excerpt at the swamp long ago. She told people to take it to other forums! Gutter candy about had a stroke, of course, but then had to back down after accusing jams of breaking the law. Jams apparently posted a part that wasn't sealed.
Anyhow, wonder what oh what happened to my posts of the excerpt of Hunter's depo? What's it cost to get a post removed here now?$20? Nazis everywhere you go nowadays.
Hey, why don't y'all go copy that excerpt from FFJ and post it here? I hate censorship.
Maybe it was too long or had some illegal formatting or something. I've had posts not show up.

I don't know why you could see it, though....
fr brown

Walnut Creek, CA

#162 Nov 10, 2009
Just because it's interesting, this is in _Forensics Under Fire_ p. 196, quoting Gordon Epstein re: Patsy Ramsey's exemplars:

"I disagree with Ramsey expert Howard Rile's conclusion that the handwriting exemplars of Patsy Ramsey are freely and naturally executed with no attempt at disguise. Patsy Ramsey is an accomplished writer. She is normally a rapid writer who has writing skills far better than the average person. She displays that in her exemplars where she demonstrates some of her other styles. If the handwriting exemplars were truly naturally and freely executed, as Mr. Rile suggests, they would be far more rapidly written and contain that quality we call 'careless abandon' which means that the writer is not devoting conscious thought to the writing process. Instead, her exemplars are often very consciously executed....This we call disguise and that is what she was attempting with her exemplars."
Henri McPhee

Wrexham, UK

#163 Nov 10, 2009
This business of whether Patsy wrote the ransom note is a highly technical battle.

I did look into that matter of the five point scale and the nine point scale or eleven point scale, or whatever it is, a few years ago. What I discovered is that some professional document examination body in America introduced the nine or eleven point scale after the JonBenet murder.

I agree with fr Brown in a way that I’m not sure where Lin Wood and Alex Hunter got this five point scale. It could possibly be that Ubowski, the handwriting expert at the Colorado Bureau of Investigation, talked in terms of a five point scale?

You can’t just say, and jump to conclusions like Mark Fuhrman, that Patsy wrote the ransom note when six of the top experts in America have their doubts that she wrote it. I agree that there are experts who think Patsy wrote it, but it’s really only Epstein who would be an anti-Ramsey qualified to give expert evidence handwriting in a murder case.

Epstein based his conclusions on a copy of the original ransom note and on copies of Patsy’s exemplars. My own opinion is that Tom Miller could have forged and tampered with those Patsy exemplar copies to make them look like the ransom note. Miller then could have given the forged copies to Epstein for the Chris Wolf case. I could do that myself on my computer if nobody bothered to check the copies with the originals.

I believe Epstein needs to take another look at the Ramsey case ransom note and Patsy handwriting exemplars and compare the copies to the originals before his opinions in the Ramsey case can be taken seriously
Henri McPhee

Wrexham, UK

#164 Nov 10, 2009
This is what Judge Carnes said about Epstein in her 2003 ruling. As far as I'm concerned this is definitive:

"Here, as noted, several factors necessarily reduce the weight a reasonable juror could give to Epstein's conclusion.

First, Epstein did not consult the original Ransom Note nor obtain original exemplars from Mrs. Ramsey.

Second, as noted by defendants, Epstein deviated from the very methodology that he has previously asserted was necessary to make a reasoned judgment.

Most significant to the Court in its determination that Epstein's conclusion cannot carry the day for plaintiff, however, is the unanimity of opinion among six other experts that Mrs. Ramsey cannot be determined to have been the writer of the Note.

As noted supra, the Boulder Police Department and District Attorney's Office had consulted six other handwriting experts, all of whom reviewed the original Ransom Note and exemplars. Supra at 21-22. Although two of these experts were hired by defendants, four were independent experts hired by the police. None of these six experts were able to identify Mrs. Ramsey as the author of the Ransom Note. Instead, their consensus was that she "probably did not" write the Ransom Note. Supra at n. 14.

Given the contrary opinion of six other experts, whose ability to examine the documents was necessarily superior to Epstein's, and given Epstein's failure to explain the methodology by which he can make absolute pronouncements concerning the authorship of a document, this Court does not believe that a reasonable jury could conclude that Mrs. Ramsey was the author of the Ransom Note, solely on the basis of Epstein's professed opinion to that effect.

In reaching this conclusion, the Court is aware that it is not permitted to make credibility judgments in ruling on summary judgment motions. For example, were there six eyewitnesses on one side of a question and one eyewitness on the other side, the Court would not take from a jury the factual question on which these witnesses were testifying.

With regard to Epstein's testimony, however, the Court is not attempting to assess credibility. Mr. Epstein may sincerely believe that Mrs. Ramsey wrote the Note and the jury may well credit his sincerity.

Nevertheless, no matter how earnest Epstein may be, the fact remains that he has not explained his basis for reaching absolute certainty in his conclusion and, accordingly, the weight and impact of his testimony would necessarily be less than the weight of the contrary testimony of six other experts.
fr brown

Walnut Creek, CA

#165 Nov 10, 2009
Henri McPhee wrote:
T
I agree with fr Brown in a way that I’m not sure where Lin Wood and Alex Hunter got this five point scale. It could possibly be that Ubowski, the handwriting expert at the Colorado Bureau of Investigation, talked in terms of a five point scale?
No, it's not possible. In Lou Smit's deposition (see post #105) he recaps the opinions of the police experts. As a group, he characterizes their opinions as "inconclusive or below" and then says that this is 4.5.

On a 5 scale 4.5 is "highly probable did not write" not "inconclusive."

On the standard 9 scale, 4.5 is slightly more inclusive than "no conclusion." This is obviously what Smit means.
fr brown

Walnut Creek, CA

#166 Nov 10, 2009
I always like to evaluate things for myself so I'd like to look at Epstein's charts, the ones he wasn't allowed to present to Carnes. How about it, Candy?

Guest membership at FFJ for the purpose?

Tell me when this thread is updated:

Subscribe Now Add to my Tracker

Add your comments below

Characters left: 4000

Please note by submitting this form you acknowledge that you have read the Terms of Service and the comment you are posting is in compliance with such terms. Be polite. Inappropriate posts may be removed by the moderator. Send us your feedback.

JonBenet Ramsey Discussions

Title Updated Last By Comments
News Santa and the housekeeper: The forgotten JonBen... 2 hr Steve Eller 69
Music for the soul 2 hr Steve Eller 121
The Stines 4 hr vic 235
News Former JonBenet Ramsey murder case suspect is a... 6 hr Texxy 1
News It's Time for TV to Let JonBenet Ramsey Rest in... 6 hr Texxy 1
News 'The Last Christmas of JonBenet Ramsey-II; (Con... 6 hr Texxy 1
News Creepy New JonBen t Ramsey Documentary To... 7 hr Texxy 1
Obvious History of ABUSE (Sep '12) 10 hr Texxy 111
News JonBenet Ramsey ransom note was written by her ... 16 hr KCinNYC 29
The unthinkable becomes thinkable 21 hr Texxy 377
More from around the web