The Heat Is On, And It's Time To Prepare

The Heat Is On, And It's Time To Prepare

There are 54 comments on the ThinkProgress story from Aug 17, 2012, titled The Heat Is On, And It's Time To Prepare. In it, ThinkProgress reports that:

Whether you look globally or locally, the last several months featured heat, heat and more heat.

Join the discussion below, or Read more at ThinkProgress.

Fun Facts

Huntsville, AL

#21 Aug 20, 2012
Fair Game wrote:
<quoted text>
I think it's you that's going to be having the epiphany: instead of 30 years of cooling as you seem to think is going to happen, all you're going to see is more warming. Eventually at some point you'll realise that the scientific evidence was right and you'll understand the feelings of those who recognised it and accepted it and were concerned about the future of their children and grandchildren and were angry with people like you who denied the evidence for so long and spent so much time repeating lies.
If you want to talk about hate, look at the people like Earthling who know AGW is true but just don't care, because they want to see a world of struggle and hardship. You're own arrogant belief that you know better than the world's scientists is innocent in comparison. although you share the same despicable contempt for science.
Warming would be better than cooling, but I don't think that is the future.

I base what I write on the studies of solar physicists. Of all the predictions made, the solar physicists have made the most predictions that have been realized.

The solar studies have the most data and have the largest correlations to historical climate. Solar physicists have predicted the solar activity of the last 10 years. Including the magnetic activity, solar wind, TSI values, cycle lengths and also correctly predicted our current cycle status.

Their predictions were in place before the activity happened. They were true 'pre'dictions, not postdictions. They were published even as all the scientists who are proponents of AGW were disputing what they were predicting. Even NASA has had to change their predictions of the next 30 years of activity. Lockwood, famous at the IPCC, now sees a solar minimum and calls the solar activity of the last half of the 20th century a grand solar maximum.

NASA has updated again their cycle 24 prediction and now anticipates a 14 year cycle. That's a 180 from what they were predicting just 5 years ago.

Not the solar physicists, they were predicting cycle 24 to be what cycle 24 is since the 1990s.

Not one prediction will change what will happen, but if you are placing bets, I will place my bet with those scientists who have a track record of correctly predicting.
SpaceBlues

United States

#22 Aug 20, 2012
Fun Facts wrote:
<quoted text>
Warming would be better than cooling, but I don't think that is the future.
I base what I write on the studies of solar physicists. Of all the predictions made, the solar physicists have made the most predictions that have been realized.
The solar studies have the most data and have the largest correlations to historical climate. Solar physicists have predicted the solar activity of the last 10 years. Including the magnetic activity, solar wind, TSI values, cycle lengths and also correctly predicted our current cycle status.
Their predictions were in place before the activity happened. They were true 'pre'dictions, not postdictions. They were published even as all the scientists who are proponents of AGW were disputing what they were predicting. Even NASA has had to change their predictions of the next 30 years of activity. Lockwood, famous at the IPCC, now sees a solar minimum and calls the solar activity of the last half of the 20th century a grand solar maximum.
NASA has updated again their cycle 24 prediction and now anticipates a 14 year cycle. That's a 180 from what they were predicting just 5 years ago.
Not the solar physicists, they were predicting cycle 24 to be what cycle 24 is since the 1990s.
Not one prediction will change what will happen, but if you are placing bets, I will place my bet with those scientists who have a track record of correctly predicting.
This is one of your worst posts.

First, you are no science judge. You have no science or mathematics understanding. Given who you are renders what you post about science always worthless.

Second, we don't choose science branches like you want us to do. How dare you.

Hey, read this where a solar researcher says "Finding problems in our theories is always more exciting than not, since this is the only way we learn more."

Read more: http://www.space.com/17143-weird-sun-shape-re...

Since: Apr 08

"the green troll"

#23 Aug 20, 2012
Fun Facts wrote:
I base what I write on the studies of solar physicists.
No you don't. You base what you write on the views of one nutter called Piers Corbyn, and no, he's not a solar physicist.

Here's what a real solar physicist says:
Joanna Haigh, a solar physicist at Imperial College London, has spent a fair bit of research time investigating mechanisms that could potentially amplify solar changes into meaningful temperature variations on human timescales on Earth.

She summed up the importance of the latest research like this:

"In a future grand minimum, the Sun might perhaps again cool the planet by up to 1C.

"Greenhouse gases, on the other hand, are expected to raise global temperatures by 1.5-4.5C by 2100.

"So even if the predictions are correct, the effect of global warming will outstrip the Sun's ability to cool even in the coldest scenario.

"And in any case, the cooling effect is only ever temporary. When the Sun's activity returns to normal, the greenhouse gases won't have gone away."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment...
Fun Facts

Huntsville, AL

#24 Aug 20, 2012
Fair Game wrote:
<quoted text>
No you don't. You base what you write on the views of one nutter called Piers Corbyn, and no, he's not a solar physicist.
Here's what a real solar physicist says:
<quoted text>
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment...
Not familiar with Piers Corbyn, do you have a reference to his work?

Your quote states that solar activity will result in 1*C drop in temperatures but CO2 will result in an minimum of 1.5*C in temperatures.

Well here's Brian_G's experiment. Let's see if CO drives the temps.
Fun Facts

Huntsville, AL

#25 Aug 21, 2012
SpaceBlues wrote:
<quoted text>This is one of your worst posts.
First, you are no science judge. You have no science or mathematics understanding. Given who you are renders what you post about science always worthless.
Second, we don't choose science branches like you want us to do. How dare you.
Hey, read this where a solar researcher says "Finding problems in our theories is always more exciting than not, since this is the only way we learn more."
Read more: http://www.space.com/17143-weird-sun-shape-re...
Another article about finding what they thought was real, wasn't. This has been happening in solar physics a lot in recent years.
Fun Facts

Huntsville, AL

#26 Aug 21, 2012
Fair Game wrote:
<quoted text>
No you don't. You base what you write on the views of one nutter called Piers Corbyn, and no, he's not a solar physicist.
Here's what a real solar physicist says:
<quoted text>
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment...
Found Piers Corbyn on the internet. He appears to be forecasting weather. But overall he is basing his forecasts on the same type of solar activity, sun/planet gravitational impacts and solar cycles, that I have discovered as a result of reviewing various papers.

Since: Apr 08

"the green troll"

#27 Aug 21, 2012
Fun Facts wrote:
<quoted text>
Found Piers Corbyn on the internet. He appears to be forecasting weather. But overall he is basing his forecasts on the same type of solar activity, sun/planet gravitational impacts and solar cycles, that I have discovered as a result of reviewing various papers.
Corbyn pulls his predictions out of his arse, just like you. He can't give any scientific justification for his predictions of cooling, just like you, and so far his predictions have been wrong, just like yours.

I posted a link to a real solar physicist who says solar variation will not cause cooling.

Can you post a link to a real solar physicist who says solar variation will cause cooling?
Fun Facts

Huntsville, AL

#28 Aug 21, 2012
Fair Game wrote:
<quoted text>

Can you post a link to a real solar physicist who says solar variation will cause cooling?
"[1] The recent solar minimum was the longest and deepest of
the space age, with the lowest average sunspot numbers for
nearly a century. The Sun appears to be exiting a grand solar
maximum (GSM) of activity which has persisted throughout
the space age, and is headed into a significantly quieter
period. Indeed, initial observations of solar cycle 24 (SC24)
continue to show a relatively low heliospheric magnetic field
strength and sunspot number (R), despite the average latitude
of sunspots and the inclination of the heliospheric current
sheet showing the rise to solar maximum is well underway.
We extrapolate the available SC24 observations forward in
time by assuming R will continue to follow a similar form to
previous cycles, despite the end of the GSM, and predict a
very weak cycle 24, with R peaking at &#8764;65–75 around the
middle/end of 2012. Similarly, we estimate the heliospheric
magnetic field strength will peak around 6nT. We estimate
that average galactic cosmic ray fluxes above 1GV rigidity
will be &#8764;10% higher in SC24 than SC23 and that the
probability of a large SEP event during this cycle is 0.8,
compared to 0.5 for SC23. Comparison of the SC24 R
estimates with previous ends of GSMs inferred from
9300 years of cosmogenic isotope data places the current
evolution of the Sun and heliosphere in the lowest 5% of
cases,

suggesting Maunder Minimum conditions are likely
within the next 40 years.

Citation: Owens,M. J.,M. Lockwood, L. Barnard, and C. J. Davis (2011), Solar cycle 24: Implications for energetic particles and long&#8208;term space climate change, Geophys.
Res. Lett., 38, L19106, doi:10.1029/2011GL049328. "

Since: Apr 08

"the green troll"

#29 Aug 21, 2012
Fun Facts wrote:
<quoted text>
"[1] The recent solar minimum was the longest and deepest of
the space age, with the lowest average sunspot numbers for
nearly a century. The Sun appears to be exiting a grand solar
maximum (GSM) of activity which has persisted throughout
the space age, and is headed into a significantly quieter
period. Indeed, initial observations of solar cycle 24 (SC24)
continue to show a relatively low heliospheric magnetic field
strength and sunspot number (R), despite the average latitude
of sunspots and the inclination of the heliospheric current
sheet showing the rise to solar maximum is well underway.
We extrapolate the available SC24 observations forward in
time by assuming R will continue to follow a similar form to
previous cycles, despite the end of the GSM, and predict a
very weak cycle 24, with R peaking at &#8764;65–75 around the
middle/end of 2012. Similarly, we estimate the heliospheric
magnetic field strength will peak around 6nT. We estimate
that average galactic cosmic ray fluxes above 1GV rigidity
will be &#8764;10% higher in SC24 than SC23 and that the
probability of a large SEP event during this cycle is 0.8,
compared to 0.5 for SC23. Comparison of the SC24 R
estimates with previous ends of GSMs inferred from
9300 years of cosmogenic isotope data places the current
evolution of the Sun and heliosphere in the lowest 5% of
cases,
suggesting Maunder Minimum conditions are likely
within the next 40 years.
Citation: Owens,M. J.,M. Lockwood, L. Barnard, and C. J. Davis (2011), Solar cycle 24: Implications for energetic particles and long&#8208;term space climate change, Geophys.
Res. Lett., 38, L19106, doi:10.1029/2011GL049328. "
This doesn't take into account the CO2 forcing, does it? Everybody knows the sun's energy has dropped a bit, but that hasn't produced cooling won't produce cooling because CO2 forcing is larger than the reduced solar enery forcing.
"In a future grand minimum, the Sun might perhaps again cool the planet by up to 1C.

"Greenhouse gases, on the other hand, are expected to raise global temperatures by 1.5-4.5C by 2100.

"So even if the predictions are correct, the effect of global warming will outstrip the Sun's ability to cool even in the coldest scenario.

"And in any case, the cooling effect is only ever temporary. When the Sun's activity returns to normal, the greenhouse gases won't have gone away."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment...

You need to provide a solar physicist who has looked at both sides of the equation and actually say that "solar variation will cause cooling".
Fun Facts

Huntsville, AL

#30 Aug 22, 2012
Fair Game wrote:
<quoted text>
This doesn't take into account the CO2 forcing, does it? Everybody knows the sun's energy has dropped a bit, but that hasn't produced cooling won't produce cooling because CO2 forcing is larger than the reduced solar enery forcing.
<quoted text>
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment...
You need to provide a solar physicist who has looked at both sides of the equation and actually say that "solar variation will cause cooling".
As I stated before, here's the experiment. Will reduced solar activity cause the earth to cool or will increased CO2 cause it to warm. Our first experiment conducted at the eruption of Pinatubo would indicate the former.

When Pinatubo erupted it put enough particulate matter in the atmosphere to reduce TSI. The reduced values of TSI resulted in 18 months of cooling temps. What scientists saw in addition to the cooling temps was a reduction in CO2.

During the time of the reduced temps the rate of increase in atmospheric CO2 stalled, went down. This was another of those 'what we thought would happen, didn't'.

Lockwood in his paper also calls the solar cycles of the space age, 1959 to present, a Grand Solar Maximum. Generally when we have GSM(aximums) earth's temps are high and we just experienced high and warming temps for the last 30 years.

Now we are facing the next 30 years of reduced solar activity. The last time our sun produced this level of activity it was very cold on earth.
SpaceBlues

United States

#31 Aug 22, 2012
Fun Facts wrote:
<quoted text>
Another article about finding what they thought was real, wasn't. This has been happening in solar physics a lot in recent years.
So you don't like them anymore?

See people like you don't understand how science works. Just like you've been dismissing man-made heating of our atmosphere.
SpaceBlues

United States

#32 Aug 22, 2012
To prepare:

1. Organize
2. Involve the public
3. Coordinate
4. Assess the hazard
5. Set goals
6. Review possible activities and draft an action plan
7. Adopt the plan
8. Implement, evaluate, and revise

http://www.portsmouthva.gov/planning/images/2...
Fun Facts

Huntsville, AL

#33 Aug 22, 2012
SpaceBlues wrote:
<quoted text>So you don't like them anymore?
See people like you don't understand how science works. Just like you've been dismissing man-made heating of our atmosphere.
'Don't like who anymore' and what has that got to do with the subject at hand?

I understand everytime we conduct an experiment or observe a function in real time we learn something. Sometimes what we learn is what we thought we knew, wasn't right. Many ideas about solar activity have been updated with new information.

The solar constant is no longer constant. We discovered just how much high low activity in the minimums between cycles impacted climate. Didn't think that mattered before, but after cycles 21 and 22 scientists discovered it mattered a lot.

Since: Apr 08

"the green troll"

#34 Aug 22, 2012
Fun Facts wrote:
The last time our sun produced this level of activity it was very cold on earth.
This time science says CO2 warming will far outweigh solar cooling.

You can't produce any science to the opposite so you start waffling on about solar cooling again as if the prospect hadn't been debunked two posts previously.
SpaceBlues

United States

#35 Aug 22, 2012
Fun Facts wrote:
<quoted text>
'Don't like who anymore' and what has that got to do with the subject at hand?
I understand everytime we conduct an experiment or observe a function in real time we learn something. Sometimes what we learn is what we thought we knew, wasn't right. Many ideas about solar activity have been updated with new information.
The solar constant is no longer constant. We discovered just how much high low activity in the minimums between cycles impacted climate. Didn't think that mattered before, but after cycles 21 and 22 scientists discovered it mattered a lot.
Stick to the subject, liar. Your memory is not one post deep. LOL.

Still you go on saying the same which tells the world why you comment on science. You are stupid!

Your linear thinking without memory falls very short for science matters. You don't even realize the solar physics is getting stronger, not weaker. Go back and read what I posted earlier. You did not understand it either.
litesong

Everett, WA

#36 Aug 22, 2012
fun farts wrote:
The solar constant is no longer constant. We discovered just how much high low activity in the minimums...
Ah, topix AGW deniers have been trying to get astronomers on board with AGW deniers for decades..... unsuccessfully.
Fun Facts

Huntsville, AL

#37 Aug 22, 2012
Fair Game wrote:
<quoted text>
This time science says CO2 warming will far outweigh solar cooling.
You can't produce any science to the opposite so you start waffling on about solar cooling again as if the prospect hadn't been debunked two posts previously.
We'll see, so far CO2 forcing hasn't achieved what was thought it would.

And in a cooler world, CO2 drops. Just like it drops each night. When the sun comes up and heats the day, CO2 values are higher.

CO2 values are lower in the winter. Well if we get more winter, what will happen to CO2 values? I don't think we really know. There are those who think CO2 will remain high, others think it will drop.

Well here it is, the 'moment' or 30 years of truth. What will it do.

“Happy, warm and comfortable”

Since: Oct 10

Mountain retreat, SE Spain

#38 Aug 22, 2012
Fun Facts wrote:
We'll see, so far CO2 forcing hasn't achieved what was thought it would.
And in a cooler world, CO2 drops. Just like it drops each night. When the sun comes up and heats the day, CO2 values are higher.
CO2 values are lower in the winter. Well if we get more winter, what will happen to CO2 values? I don't think we really know. There are those who think CO2 will remain high, others think it will drop.
Well here it is, the 'moment' or 30 years of truth. What will it do.
CO2 just doesn't have the power to do what alarmists believe it can.
There's no magic involved, and the real cause of Glowbull warming will one day be revealed.

Since: Apr 08

"the green troll"

#39 Aug 22, 2012
Fun Facts wrote:
<quoted text>
We'll see, so far CO2 forcing hasn't achieved what was thought it would.
It was thought that CO2 forcing would cause the world to warm. It's not as if we've seen rapid warming for the past few decades, is it?

http://www.carbonbrief.org/media/103940/decad...

Since: Apr 08

"the green troll"

#40 Aug 22, 2012
Earthling-1 wrote:
There's no magic involved, and the real cause of Glowbull warming will one day be revealed.
One day a magical unknown factor that explains modern warming will be found.

And an explanation for why CO2 didn't cause the warming physics says it must inevitably cause by its heat trapping properties.

These are the two fanciful notions that deniers want you to believe.

Rather than the consensus of every scientific academy on the planet that says warming is real and we're responsible.

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