2010 Is Busting Heat Records

Jul 13, 2010 | Posted by: roboblogger | Full story: New Republic

According to NASA, the first six months of 2010 were officially the hottest half-year on record - and we're now on track to witness the hottest year on record .

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LessHypeMoreFact

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Jul 13, 2010
 

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Not surprising, but it is just as much 'noise' in the trend as the 'cooling' of 2008/2009. The ENSO cycle increases or decreases the total thermal energy of the air, derived from AGW trends in the "global average surface temperature".
Fun Facts

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#2
Jul 14, 2010
 

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Where? Not the US. We had crop delays all over the US from cold weather. How can the crops be delayed by cold weather that was the warmest?
LessHypeMoreFact

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#3
Jul 14, 2010
 

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Fun Facts wrote:
Where? Not the US. We had crop delays all over the US from cold weather. How can the crops be delayed by cold weather that was the warmest?
Yes. In the U.S. Climate is not about SEASONS or WEATHER dimwit.
Northie

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#4
Jul 14, 2010
 

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Fun Facts wrote:
Where? Not the US. We had crop delays all over the US from cold weather. How can the crops be delayed by cold weather that was the warmest?
Yes, in the Northern US, and in Canada as well. Warm winter, cool spring, warm summer. Thank ENSO.

"Summers, during the El Niņo effect, are wetter than average in the Northwest, Northmidwest, Northmideast, and mountain regions of the United States."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Ni ņo-Southern_Oscillation
Northie

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#7
Jul 18, 2010
 

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Dud Twenties wrote:
so it is due to El Nino and not global warming? and still, no proof any warming has been man made.
The ENSO (El Nino) cycle is accelerating and growing stronger, thanks to human climate cooking.

El Ninos apparently are the Pacific dumping heat back into the atmosphere. More heat, more El Ninos.
LessHypeMoreFact

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Jul 18, 2010
 

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Northie wrote:
<quoted text>
The ENSO (El Nino) cycle is accelerating and growing stronger, thanks to human climate cooking.
I wouldn't say that this hypothesis is theory yet. Some studies of climate models certainly support the increase in the climate 'heat engine' driving stronger ENSO cycles (by about 60% after accounting for all other factors). I imaging that the oceans are also lowering in viscosity from the higher temperatures.

But there is also a move towards a change in the ENSO character from what is 'historic'(called the "Modoki"). There is a STRONG chance of a 'climate surprise' from continued AGW.
Northie wrote:
<quoted text>
El Ninos apparently are the Pacific dumping heat back into the atmosphere. More heat, more El Ninos.
By my lights it is a shift in the 'surface to air' thermal transfer function. By having more of the warm water rising, the air gets more of the total thermal energy relative to the ground and oceans. In a La-Nina, less heat is shifted to the air. It makes the air a rather 'noisy' proxy for the global surface tempeature becuase of these variations in the transfer function.

Since: Feb 07

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#9
Jul 21, 2010
 

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Northie wrote:
<quoted text>
The ENSO (El Nino) cycle is accelerating and growing stronger, thanks to human climate cooking.
El Ninos apparently are the Pacific dumping heat back into the atmosphere. More heat, more El Ninos.
Things like this are nothing new. It has happened throughout the history of Earth.

The Great Drought was resposible for the decline of the Anasazi people in North America in the 13th century. Must have been caused by all thier SUVs.

__________
http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/243...

climatic interval of the Holocene Epoch that affected much of what is now the western United States and had a profound influence upon the plants, animals, and prehistoric Native American cultures of the region. The Holocene began about 11,700 years ago and continues to the present. The region affected by the Great Drought encompassed the area that extended from what is now Oregon to southern California and east to what is now eastern Texas; dendrochronology, or tree-ring studies, indicate that it began in ad 1276 and continued through 1299

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#10
Jul 21, 2010
 

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LessHypeMoreFact wrote:
<quoted text>
I wouldn't say that this hypothesis is theory yet. Some studies of climate models certainly support the increase in the climate 'heat engine' driving stronger ENSO cycles (by about 60% after accounting for all other factors). I imaging that the oceans are also lowering in viscosity from the higher temperatures.
But there is also a move towards a change in the ENSO character from what is 'historic'(called the "Modoki"). There is a STRONG chance of a 'climate surprise' from continued AGW.
<quoted text>
By my lights it is a shift in the 'surface to air' thermal transfer function. By having more of the warm water rising, the air gets more of the total thermal energy relative to the ground and oceans. In a La-Nina, less heat is shifted to the air. It makes the air a rather 'noisy' proxy for the global surface tempeature becuase of these variations in the transfer function.
ooh, a "climate surprise"! I like surprises!

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Jul 21, 2010
 

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More proof that major droughts have happened in the past and are predicted in the future with or without AGW.

http://www.publicaffairs.noaa.gov/stories/sir...

"Even in the absence of significant greenhouse warming, however, future droughts may be much more severe and last much longer than what we have experienced this century," Woodhouse said.
LessHypeMoreFact

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#12
Jul 21, 2010
 

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kookboy wrote:
<quoted text>
Things like this are nothing new. It has happened throughout the history of Earth.
The Great Drought was resposible for the decline of the Anasazi people in North America in the 13th century. Must have been caused by all thier SUVs.
Different subjects. The cause of long term drought cycles in the Southwest has nothing to do with ENSO which oscillates about every five years.

Nor is there solid evidence of the 'great drought' hypothesis as a widespread climate variation. The hypothesis is losing favor due to contradictions with other records.

Periodic droughts do occur randomly but they are not severe enough to explain the end of the Anasazi culture. They survived many of these. It is more likley that a weak drought cycle combined with deforestation of the higher plateaus combined to cause a locally severe drought. This along with competition from the Navajo (Anasazi is actually Navaho for 'enemy', we have no true name for them) combined to cause them to move.
LessHypeMoreFact

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Jul 21, 2010
 

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kookboy wrote:
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ooh, a "climate surprise"! I like surprises!
Yes, but we already established that you are a kook.
LessHypeMoreFact

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Jul 21, 2010
 

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kookboy wrote:
More proof that major droughts have happened in the past and are predicted in the future with or without AGW.
http://www.publicaffairs.noaa.gov/stories/sir...
"Even in the absence of significant greenhouse warming, however, future droughts may be much more severe and last much longer than what we have experienced this century," Woodhouse said.
This is unlikely. If the hypothesis holds true that the megadroughts were caused by cold currents similar to La-Nina shifting weather systems north, then it can only occur when the 'pace' of ENSO cycles in nearly stopped and the system can 'lock in' to a La-Nina cycle over long periods. Similar long term 'lock in' has occured with other climate cycles. However, the warming of the pacific has INCREASED the speed of the ENSO cycle so it is highly unlikely to stay in La-Nina phase for any length of time but oscillate more vigorously, SHORTENING the drought cycles.

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Jul 21, 2010
 
LessHypeMoreFact wrote:
<quoted text>
This is unlikely. If the hypothesis holds true that the megadroughts were caused by cold currents similar to La-Nina shifting weather systems north, then it can only occur when the 'pace' of ENSO cycles in nearly stopped and the system can 'lock in' to a La-Nina cycle over long periods. Similar long term 'lock in' has occured with other climate cycles. However, the warming of the pacific has INCREASED the speed of the ENSO cycle so it is highly unlikely to stay in La-Nina phase for any length of time but oscillate more vigorously, SHORTENING the drought cycles.
I guess even linking to the NOAA dosn't convince Lessy. Being a borderline intelectual must make him an expert on everything.
LessHypeMoreFact

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#16
Jul 21, 2010
 
kookboy wrote:
<quoted text>
I guess even linking to the NOAA dosn't convince Lessy.
Linking to Einstein wouldn't convince anyone with a brain either. Even he made a few bloopers.

I gather you were dumbly trying to use 'argument by authority'? It might have worked if you had a CLUE about it or any reasoning skills. But since all you did is point and say 'see?' it amounts to nothing. Researchers are not even completely convinced of what the 'great drought' was or if it was a real event.
kookboy wrote:
<quoted text>
Being a borderline intelectual must make him an expert on everything.
Certainly I can comment on what I have read but certainly do not consider myself a research scientists. A good general education ( minimum BSc) along with an active interest can make you 'familiar' with many issues. But intellectuals (borderline or full fledged) are not experts. OTOH, they know more about it than kooks.
YouHelpFixIt

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#17
Jul 21, 2010
 
Northie wrote:
<quoted text>
The ENSO (El Nino) cycle is accelerating and growing stronger, thanks to human climate cooking.
El Ninos apparently are the Pacific dumping heat back into the atmosphere. More heat, more El Ninos.
What?

You better check the data again.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysi...

(updated every Monday)

We are in ENSO neutral conditions right now. In fact it was a very rapid decline from the last El Nino (which was not particularly strong or lasted very long).
Earthling

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#18
Jul 22, 2010
 
LessHypeMoreFact wrote:
Linking to Einstein wouldn't convince anyone with a brain either. Even he made a few bloopers.
So you write him off because of a few mistakes?
You're a real life crank.
Earthling

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Jul 22, 2010
 

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YouHelpFixIt wrote:
What?
You better check the data again.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysi...
(updated every Monday)
We are in ENSO neutral conditions right now. In fact it was a very rapid decline from the last El Nino (which was not particularly strong or lasted very long).
It appears that Norfie works on the principle that if he tells enough lies, sooner or later someone is bound to believe him.
To push his, "climate cooking" theory, it's necessary to make things seem as frightening as possible, probably his idea of the modern version of wearing warpaint.
YouHelpFixIt

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Jul 22, 2010
 

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Earthling wrote:
<quoted text>It appears that Norfie works on the principle that if he tells enough lies, sooner or later someone is bound to believe him.
To push his, "climate cooking" theory, it's necessary to make things seem as frightening as possible, probably his idea of the modern version of wearing warpaint.
Honestly, all he has to do is look it up before he posts easily dispoved propoganda. Perhaps that is the problem, he believes it without question and facts would not change his mind anyway.
Fun Facts

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Jul 22, 2010
 

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LessHypeMoreFact wrote:
<quoted text>
Different subjects. The cause of long term drought cycles in the Southwest has nothing to do with ENSO which oscillates about every five years.
Nor is there solid evidence of the 'great drought' hypothesis as a widespread climate variation. The hypothesis is losing favor due to contradictions with other records.
Periodic droughts do occur randomly but they are not severe enough to explain the end of the Anasazi culture. They survived many of these. It is more likley that a weak drought cycle combined with deforestation of the higher plateaus combined to cause a locally severe drought. This along with competition from the Navajo (Anasazi is actually Navaho for 'enemy', we have no true name for them) combined to cause them to move.
Do you ever research anything before you post?

30 years of drought caused the end of the anasazi culture. 30 years without water and food will pretty much end just about any human culture. No water means no vegetation harvest and no animals to hunt. In a time of no reservoirs, this means you got take whatever you can carry and go somewhere else. It is the dispersal of a particular culture.
Earthling

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#22
Jul 22, 2010
 

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Fun Facts wrote:
Do you ever research anything before you post?
why do you ask such silly questions'
He can't even manage to check the spelling of two simple words, spelt and forty.
Fun Facts wrote:
30 years of drought caused the end of the anasazi culture. 30 years without water and food will pretty much end just about any human culture. No water means no vegetation harvest and no animals to hunt. In a time of no reservoirs, this means you got take whatever you can carry and go somewhere else. It is the dispersal of a particular culture.
If that makes sense to him, I'll be most surprised.

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