Large Majority of Californians Now Su...

Large Majority of Californians Now Support Same-Sex Marriage

There are 18 comments on the sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com story from Feb 28, 2013, titled Large Majority of Californians Now Support Same-Sex Marriage. In it, sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com reports that:

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS/AP) – A new poll shows that nearly two-thirds of Californians now approve of allowing same-sex marriage couples to marry.

Join the discussion below, or Read more at sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com.

David Traversa

Parana, Argentina

#1 Feb 28, 2013
Proves ( as stated at the time ) that Proposition 8 was far from from having a majority's support .. Those that then abstained from voting are now coming to the fore ..

Since: Oct 10

San Francisco

#2 Feb 28, 2013
"Only registered Republicans and religious and political conservatives now oppose it, said poll director Mark DiCamillo."

Fortunately, those dinosaurs are dying off, although many of them have found their calling as Topix trolls in the meantime.

“Together for 24, legal for 5”

Since: Sep 07

Littleton, NH

#3 Feb 28, 2013
Let's hope that we don't need to go back to the ballot to achieve marriage equality in California. If we do, this poll instills a strong sense that we CAN and SHOULD win, but we should not become complacent.

Worst-case math suggests that a smart opposition campaign could win. The margin was given as 3.5%, and there's a 5% chance that the poll is off even further. Since there's no way to determine "likely" voters at this time, we have no idea which of these people would vote at an actual election. So we could be looking at a winning margin in the mid-fifties.

Add to that an historical tendency for polls to differ from elections by 5% and we have just enough support to win marriage equality at the ballot.

Personally, I think the historical difference between elections and polls may have vanished. People seem to be more comfortable voting their hearts instead of their fears. With popular opinion moving strongly our direction, conformity will now encourage more "undecideds" to vote for equality than have in the past (which is to say NONE!).

Continuing along this more positive line of thinking, a well-organized pro-equality campaign could produce a real blow-out in California. The poll suggested that opinion had moved two points in our favor over the last year, and momentum will likely produce another two points in our favor by election day in 2014 (or more points by 2016).

So we could easily win with over 60% at the ballot box. But if we have to go there, we should not count on anything except our own hard work.

Since: Jun 11

AOL

#4 Feb 28, 2013
GoldenGator wrote:
"Only registered Republicans and religious and political conservatives now oppose it, said poll director Mark DiCamillo."
Fortunately, those dinosaurs are dying off, although many of them have found their calling as Topix trolls in the meantime.
Unfortunately, they are also the most likely to vote.

Straight people who understand they have nothing to lose either way. They are not as motivated to vote as those who believe they are on a mission from God, and have been instructed to vote by their leaders who claim to speak for God.

“Marriage Equality”

Since: Dec 07

Lakeland, MI

#5 Feb 28, 2013
I wonder if Maggie the Hut and Brian the Closet Case have realized that the gig is up yet? I would LOVE to know what those two are thinking right now about their wealth and power so quickly slipping away. And what people like them, that have made a living from lies and hate, will DO once that plan fizzles.

I also wonder who the *next* target of the profit-from-hate capitalists will be.... Once gay folks get marriage equality across the board and at all levels, who will they demonize for a living?

“Headed toward the cliff”

Since: Nov 07

Tawas City, Michigan

#6 Feb 28, 2013
Get ready to vote, because the SCOTUS is going to pull something with the Prop 8 decision.

My gut tells me we're not going to get the clear victory everyone expects. Just the tortured history of this case makes me think it's not going to be over come June.

Option 1- they uphold Prop 8 as part of a deal to get a 6-3 decision overturning DOMA.

Option 2- they throw the whole thing out over the standing issue and send it back to the federal court for a new trial.

Either way I don't think same-sex couples will be marrying anytime soon in California.

Time to vote.

“ WOOF ! ”

Since: Nov 12

Coolidge, AZ

#7 Feb 28, 2013
WeTheSheeple wrote:
Get ready to vote, because the SCOTUS is going to pull something with the Prop 8 decision.
My gut tells me we're not going to get the clear victory everyone expects. Just the tortured history of this case makes me think it's not going to be over come June.
Option 1- they uphold Prop 8 as part of a deal to get a 6-3 decision overturning DOMA.
Option 2- they throw the whole thing out over the standing issue and send it back to the federal court for a new trial.
Either way I don't think same-sex couples will be marrying anytime soon in California.
Time to vote.
We might win the Prop 8 case on teh standing issue alone.

I'm optimistic that we will win both cases.

Since: Jun 11

AOL

#8 Feb 28, 2013
WeTheSheeple wrote:
Get ready to vote, because the SCOTUS is going to pull something with the Prop 8 decision.
My gut tells me we're not going to get the clear victory everyone expects. Just the tortured history of this case makes me think it's not going to be over come June.
Option 1- they uphold Prop 8 as part of a deal to get a 6-3 decision overturning DOMA.
Option 2- they throw the whole thing out over the standing issue and send it back to the federal court for a new trial.
Either way I don't think same-sex couples will be marrying anytime soon in California.
Time to vote.
My understand is, if they reject standing, Walker's decision stands.(read that somewhere but didn't save the source) But I haven't seen anything that explains the details of that assertion. I wouldn't be at all surprised if they deny standing, especially in prop 8.

Since: Jun 11

AOL

#9 Feb 28, 2013
10 states currently recognize marriage equality, while only 9 currently issue licenses to same sex couples.

Rhode Island recognizes same sex marriages from out of state. They have not yet converted their civil unions to full marriage, but are headed in that direction.

And Ca. still recognizes in and out of state marriages done before prop. 8 passed. While perhaps a minor detail, it is a very real consideration for married same sex couples in those states.

“Marriage Equality”

Since: Dec 07

Lakeland, MI

#10 Feb 28, 2013
WeTheSheeple wrote:
Get ready to vote, because the SCOTUS is going to pull something with the Prop 8 decision.
My gut tells me we're not going to get the clear victory everyone expects. Just the tortured history of this case makes me think it's not going to be over come June.
Option 1- they uphold Prop 8 as part of a deal to get a 6-3 decision overturning DOMA.
Option 2- they throw the whole thing out over the standing issue and send it back to the federal court for a new trial.
Either way I don't think same-sex couples will be marrying anytime soon in California.
Time to vote.
Hmmm.... I'm thinking they'll throw out Prop H8 on VERY narrow grounds, leaving other state bans in place. For now. And they'll overturn DOMA on broad grounds. They'll fall short of overturning all the bans on equality, but the decision they make will throw the door open to those bans rapidly falling, one by one, mostly through lower court decisions as people sue to overturn them.

Just my humble opinion, but I think those two resolutions would satisfy enough people that they're not moving too far ahead of public opinion, but they won't be creating another "Roe v. Wade" that the idiots can scream and cry over for the rest of time.

Since: Jun 11

AOL

#11 Feb 28, 2013
Not Yet Equal wrote:
<quoted text>
My understand is, if they reject standing, Walker's decision stands.(read that somewhere but didn't save the source) But I haven't seen anything that explains the details of that assertion. I wouldn't be at all surprised if they deny standing, especially in prop 8.
(correction) My understanding is, if they reject standing, Walker's decision stands.

I stand corrected.

“Headed toward the cliff”

Since: Nov 07

Tawas City, Michigan

#12 Feb 28, 2013
Not Yet Equal wrote:
<quoted text>
My understand is, if they reject standing, Walker's decision stands.(read that somewhere but didn't save the source) But I haven't seen anything that explains the details of that assertion. I wouldn't be at all surprised if they deny standing, especially in prop 8.
The SCOTUS can literally do whatever they want with the case. If they want to throw everything out and order a new trial, they can. Then we're back a square one with years of trials & appeals ahead again.

I do think it is LIKELY that Prop 8 will be gone after June, but I also think its just as LIKELY same-sex couples won't be able to start marrying in July either.

My sneaky conspiracy-minded worry is a deal being made in exchange for a larger majority overturning DOMA.

“Headed toward the cliff”

Since: Nov 07

Tawas City, Michigan

#13 Feb 28, 2013
eJohn wrote:
<quoted text>
Hmmm.... I'm thinking they'll throw out Prop H8 on VERY narrow grounds, leaving other state bans in place. For now. And they'll overturn DOMA on broad grounds. They'll fall short of overturning all the bans on equality, but the decision they make will throw the door open to those bans rapidly falling, one by one, mostly through lower court decisions as people sue to overturn them.
Just my humble opinion, but I think those two resolutions would satisfy enough people that they're not moving too far ahead of public opinion, but they won't be creating another "Roe v. Wade" that the idiots can scream and cry over for the rest of time.
The rational side of my brain agrees with you 100%.

The irrational side of my brain is having a conniption fit!

“Together for 24, legal for 5”

Since: Sep 07

Littleton, NH

#14 Feb 28, 2013
WeTheSheeple wrote:
Get ready to vote, because the SCOTUS is going to pull something with the Prop 8 decision.
My gut tells me we're not going to get the clear victory everyone expects. Just the tortured history of this case makes me think it's not going to be over come June.
Option 1- they uphold Prop 8 as part of a deal to get a 6-3 decision overturning DOMA.
Option 2- they throw the whole thing out over the standing issue and send it back to the federal court for a new trial.
Either way I don't think same-sex couples will be marrying anytime soon in California.
Time to vote.
We haven't yet gotten a decision, but the questioning in yesterday's Voting Rights Act hearings confirms that Scalia and others are willing to substitute personal preference for jurisprudence. This makes me very nervous on both cases.

The best chance for DOMA is an emphasis on states' rights, and states' rights might very well convince SCOTUS to overturn the Perry decision. We might very well witness a strong decision against DOMA while Prop 8 is upheld.

I think the best chance for SCOTUS upholding the Perry decision is standing. They will surely use this case as a vehicle to clarify who does and doesn't have standing. It seems unlikely they'll grant a broad group of litigants standing.

But I'm not convinced that decisions on either case will hinge in any way on established jurisprudence, nor even the supposed principles espoused by the conservative justices.

“Headed toward the cliff”

Since: Nov 07

Tawas City, Michigan

#15 Feb 28, 2013
nhjeff wrote:
<quoted text>
We haven't yet gotten a decision, but the questioning in yesterday's Voting Rights Act hearings confirms that Scalia and others are willing to substitute personal preference for jurisprudence. This makes me very nervous on both cases.
The best chance for DOMA is an emphasis on states' rights, and states' rights might very well convince SCOTUS to overturn the Perry decision. We might very well witness a strong decision against DOMA while Prop 8 is upheld.
I think the best chance for SCOTUS upholding the Perry decision is standing. They will surely use this case as a vehicle to clarify who does and doesn't have standing. It seems unlikely they'll grant a broad group of litigants standing.
But I'm not convinced that decisions on either case will hinge in any way on established jurisprudence, nor even the supposed principles espoused by the conservative justices.
BINGO!

I think more people are waking up to the fact that the Justices have their own biases which DOES influence their decisions, even though it's not supposed to; that applies to both liberal & "conservatives".

Strict jurisprudence would demand a 9-0 decision against DOMA and Prop 8. That's obviously NOT going to happen.

Again, my sneaky suspicion (paranoia?) is a deal being done to get a larger majority striking down DOMA- Roberts doens't like 5-4 decisions- in exchange for something other than a clear victory for equality on Prop8. There are so many ways the court could avoid a direct rejection of Prop 8, which could result in same-sex couples still being denied the right to marry in California.

Get ready to vote California....

“Headed toward the cliff”

Since: Nov 07

Tawas City, Michigan

#16 Feb 28, 2013
And the news is reporting President Obama will file a brief in the Prop 8 case as well, urging the SCOTUS to overturn it.

When everything is going our way is when I get nervous.....

“Together for 24, legal for 5”

Since: Sep 07

Littleton, NH

#17 Feb 28, 2013
WeTheSheeple wrote:
And the news is reporting President Obama will file a brief in the Prop 8 case as well, urging the SCOTUS to overturn it.
When everything is going our way is when I get nervous.....
Perhaps Obama should support DOMA and Prop 8. Then the conservative justices will be forced to reject them. If Obama is for it, they MUST oppose it.

“Headed toward the cliff”

Since: Nov 07

Tawas City, Michigan

#18 Feb 28, 2013
nhjeff wrote:
<quoted text>
Perhaps Obama should support DOMA and Prop 8. Then the conservative justices will be forced to reject them. If Obama is for it, they MUST oppose it.
I've always said Obama should support cutting taxes on the rich and cutting social security & medicare and putting an assault rifle in every home for the same reason!

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