Analysts: Gay marriage OK remains unl...

Analysts: Gay marriage OK remains unlikely in Pa.

There are 41 comments on the Pocono Record story from Nov 18, 2012, titled Analysts: Gay marriage OK remains unlikely in Pa.. In it, Pocono Record reports that:

Despite recent gains for gay marriage in a number of states, analysts say you needn't expect Pennsylvania to join their number anytime soon.

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Since: Mar 09

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#42 Nov 21, 2012
nhjeff wrote:
I think civil unions are the way to go in Pennsylvania. It gets the conversation going in a less-threatening manner. Note that even Republicans in rural areas of the state support recognition of same-sex couples, although they will definitely not countenance marriage equality.
The rural problem is the same in all states, however. In Washington, the vote on Referendum 74 looked very much like the vote on 71: Seattle went for it in a big way, Spokane a little less so, and rural east rejected by margins of 70% or more. The vote in Maine went the same way with the southern coastal counties supporting but none of the inland or northern counties. Aroostook county rejected by 75%.
It will be much the same in Pennsylvania with Philadelphia and Pittsburgh supporting marriage equality while the rest of the state rejects. There will be a few other pockets of support like Allentown. But the two largest metropolitan areas have over 55% of the voters, and that's where support will come from.
President Obama's support will be a game-changer in Pennsylvania, as it clearly was in Maryland. With black opposition, marriage equality would be a non-starter in Philadelphia, as well.
That said, there is no mechanism in Pennsyslvania for popular votes on such issues. So the polls really don't matter: All that matters is who goes to Harrisburg. And in that regard, there may be a majority of equality-minded representatives from the large metropolitan areas, but these areas will also send several social conservatives and a bunch of cowards. The rest of the state will be almost uniformly conservative--both fiscally and socially. Positions are unlikely to change as quickly as they did in some New England states.
So I see the best way forward is to use civil unions as a stepping stone to full equality. As the politicians admit, full equality is inevitable but not visible on the horizon. So the best move is to win most of the rights quickly and to continue the conversation. If the only proposal put forward in Pennsylvania is marriage equality, I don't think the conversation will even start.

Once DOMA falls, get married by the highest ranking Federal Judge in D.C. that you can, then return to Pennsylvania a sue on FF&C grounds.

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