Thats because most analyses use ice COVERAGE and not ice THICKNESS. The arctic ice cap was 17' thick in 1989, and 9' thick in 2003. A simple arithemtic projection points to 2020 as the time when the Arctic will be ice free in the summer. Professor Maslowski of the US Naval Post Graduate School predicts a similar date. I have talked to other climatologists who also suspect 2020 may be possible, but say we don't have solid evidence to make an announcement.

The BIG question then is "How can Greenland stay frozen when surrounded by warm water every summer?" It may all happen so much faster than expected or hoped.