This guy has been spot on for THREE days on Ike. NHC had it going to Florida. Kevin Martin had it going to Cuba. I'd listen to this Meteorologist.
Here's his latest.
Tropical Weather Service
September 7, 2008– 12:00am PDT
CURRENT - OFFICIAL
Tracking Map - http://www.owsweather.com/9708tsd.jpg
Ike is moving WSW and should begin to move West soon. Ike is a powerful Category four Hurricane and it could reach Category five status near the Turks into Cuba if projections continue. Current projections have not changed at all in the medium range which is good for when we plot the MOST PROBABLE landfall point when Ike is near Western Cuba.
At this time will not plot an exact landfall point due to many factors however Ike is going to be a Historical Hurricane in the Gulf Of Mexico and anyone along it should keep tuned to any forecasts they can from anywhere just to make sure you are taken care of.
OWS projections are taking Ike Across Cuba and into the Yucatan / Cuba Channel. This is near where Gustav went. What is in the medium range I am very confident in happening. I am confident Ike will stall somewhat in the Gulf Of Mexico. Why? Because two ridges of high pressure will be interacting with it. We stopped the track South of New Orleans on the last run.
We did not officially take the tracking map to any land spots until now. If Ike wants to follow this path, the two ridges will stall it on a loop current in which Ike will and can have power for a Category five type storm.
Like I said before, if we had a Category six Ike is the candidate for that type of storm. Ike then will be forced Westward towards the Texas Coastal zones.
This is a very large uncertainty but it is our preliminary and first mention of an official landfall point. Houston, TX.
More updates are sure to come from this.
Confidence in Ike hitting Cuba - High.
Confidence in Ike crossing the Yucatan / Cuba Channel - Medium - High.
Confidence in Ike stalling in the Gulf Of Mexico and rapidly gaining strength - Medium High.
Confidence exists on a medium level from FL Panhandle to TX Coastline. Right now am leaning West towards Houston, TX but in now way is this a final call and do not use it as such. It could very well happen and we are targeting this area right now as such.
Very juicy words. I've followed Kevin Martin and he is next to the best there is in Meteorology so take his word for it folks.