Bird flu expert working on vaccine th...

Bird flu expert working on vaccine that protects against multiple strains

There are 2 comments on the PhysOrg Weblog story from May 10, 2013, titled Bird flu expert working on vaccine that protects against multiple strains. In it, PhysOrg Weblog reports that:

As the bird flu outbreak in China worsens, a Purdue University expert is working on vaccines that offer broader protection against multiple strains of the virus.

Join the discussion below, or Read more at PhysOrg Weblog.

Dr David ill

Birmingham, UK

#1 May 10, 2013
This is complete madness as historical evidence and statistics evidence prove (Spanish Flu and Swine Flu)conclusively that a vaccine will come far too late to save us even though it is a broader range vaccine. In this respect all mass killer strains have always been unique in their own way.

For analysing the Spanish Flu against the history of the 2009 Swine Flu shows every intelligent person that a vaccine cure for a future avian human-to-human killer virus (all viruses are different as they constantly mutate) will simply come too late as the time horizons are too short. Indeed even if we could produce an antidote within 8 weeks in the laboratory, which presently is around 6 months, it takes over 26 weeks to manufacture, distribute and administer to 1/3rd of the masses and as was the case in the USA in 2009, this will be far too long and every affected person will have a death rate potential of around 60%. Those are the facts based on recent history.

1918 SPANISH FLU PANDEMIC
The 1918 pandemic did its worst (in the second wave after it had mutated into the most lethal human-to-human mass killer) following the first human death between week 16 and week 26 after the second wave. Between 50 million and 100 million perished out of a world population of around 1.5 billion (less than 25% of the population now). Therefore in a mere 6 months from initial human death, most had died an absolutely appalling and suffocating death.

2009 SWINE FLU PANDEMIC
Time Horizons for the 2009 Swine Flu Pandemic against the 1918 Spanish flu

Detection
Time Scale - 0 months
Swine Flu first detected – Influenza A, Novel H1N1 "swine flu" was first detected in Mexico City and was made public March 18, 2009. Therefore the first causality was probably at the beginning of March 2009 taking into account the incubation period.

First Death in USA
Time Scale + 2-months later at the end of April 2009

1st Vaccine Approved
Time Scale + 6 months 2 weeks
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved the new swine flu vaccine for use in the United States on September 15, 2009.

Mass Vaccine 1st ready for use in USA
Time Scale + 7 months 1 week
The vaccine was first ready from mass production and used on 5th October 2009 in the USA

Most Vaccinated City in the USA by 22nd March 2010
Time Scale + 1 year 1month 1 week
Massachusetts vaccinated more residents against the swine flu and seasonal flu in the fall and winter than any other state.
Up to the end of Winter (March 2010)- The Massachusetts Department of Public Health says 36 percent of residents were inoculated against the swine flu, also known as H1N1, compared with 21 percent nationally. Seasonal flu vaccinations were administered to 57 percent of the population, compared with 37 percent nationwide.
A mere 36% in one USA city and where nationally only 21% had the vaccine by March 22nd 2010. This was approximately 13 months after the first human death was recorded in Mexico.

Therefore compared to the Spanish Flu where the fastest transit system was the ‘slow’ boat to China and now we have rapid jet travel, the next equivalent to the Spanish Flu will travel like wildfire throughout the planet. Also as the Spanish Flu killed most within 6 months of the first detected death and a vaccine was not authorised by the US government until over 7 months after the first detected death from Swine Flu in 2009, the vast majority of people have no chance of being saved. Therefore the vaccine thinking and strategy is sheer madness and if the world dose not change its mindset, the unthinkable will definitely happen eventually. Then most will lose a loved one or entire families.

The world has to come to its senses before it is far too late and adopt Professor Shortridge's strategy for our own good - http://www.thewif.org.uk/home/shortridge_thai... , as is the only one that has worked and will save the lives of literally 100s of millions.

Dr David Hill
World Innovation Foundation
Dr David Hill

Birmingham, UK

#2 May 10, 2013
Analysing the Spanish Flu against the history of the 2009 Swine Flu shows every intelligent person that a vaccine cure for a future avian human-to-human killer virus (all viruses are different as they constantly mutate) will simply come too late as the time horizons are too short. Indeed even if we could produce an antidote within 8 weeks in the laboratory, which presently is around 6 months, it takes over 26 weeks to manufacture, distribute and administer to 1/3rd of the masses and as was the case in the USA in 2009, this will be far too long and every affected person will have a death rate potential of around 60%. Those are the facts based on recent history.

1918 SPANISH FLU PANDEMIC
The 1918 pandemic did its worst (in the second wave after it had mutated into the most lethal human-to-human mass killer) following the first human death between week 16 and week 26 after the second wave. Between 50 million and 100 million perished out of a world population of around 1.5 billion (less than 25% of the population now). Therefore in a mere 6 months from initial human death, most had died an absolutely appalling and suffocating death.

2009 SWINE FLU PANDEMIC
Time Horizons for the 2009 Swine Flu Pandemic against the 1918 Spanish flu

Detection
Time Scale - 0 months
Swine Flu first detected – Influenza A, Novel H1N1 "swine flu" was first detected in Mexico City and was made public March 18, 2009. Therefore the first causality was probably at the beginning of March 2009 taking into account the incubation period.

First Death in USA
Time Scale + 2-months later at the end of April 2009

1st Vaccine Approved
Time Scale + 6 months 2 weeks
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved the new swine flu vaccine for use in the United States on September 15, 2009.

Mass Vaccine 1st ready for use in USA
Time Scale + 7 months 1 week
The vaccine was first ready from mass production and used on 5th October 2009 in the USA

Most Vaccinated City in the USA by 22nd March 2010
Time Scale + 1 year 1month 1 week
Massachusetts vaccinated more residents against the swine flu and seasonal flu in the fall and winter than any other state.
Up to the end of Winter (March 2010)- The Massachusetts Department of Public Health says 36 percent of residents were inoculated against the swine flu, also known as H1N1, compared with 21 percent nationally. Seasonal flu vaccinations were administered to 57 percent of the population, compared with 37 percent nationwide.
A mere 36% in one USA city and where nationally only 21% had the vaccine by March 22nd 2010. This was approximately 13 months after the first human death was recorded in Mexico.

Therefore compared to the Spanish Flu where the fastest transit system was the ‘slow’ boat to China and now we have rapid jet travel, the next equivalent to the Spanish Flu will travel like wildfire throughout the planet. Also as the Spanish Flu killed most within 6 months of the first detected death and a vaccine was not authorised by the US government until over 7 months after the first detected death from Swine Flu in 2009, the vast majority of people have no chance of being saved. Therefore the vaccine thinking and strategy is sheer madness and if the world dose not change its mindset, the unthinkable will definitely happen eventually. Then most will lose a loved one or entire families.

The world has to come to its senses before it is far too late and adopt Professor Shortridge's strategy for our own good - http://www.thewif.org.uk/home/shortridge_thai... , as is the only one that has worked and will save the lives of literally 100s of millions.

Dr David Hill
World Innovation Foundation

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