World's climate could cool first, warm later

Sep 5, 2009 Full story: www.newscientist.com 68

Forecasts of climate change are about to go seriously out of kilter. One of the world's top climate modelers said Thursday we could be about to enter "one or even two decades during which temperatures cool.

Few climate scientists go as far as Mojib Latif, an author for the IPCC. But more and more agree that the short term prognosis for climate change is much less certain than once thought.

In candid mood, climate scientists avoided blaming nature for their faltering predictions, however. "Model biases are also still a serious problem. We have a long way to go to get them right. They are hurting our forecasts," said Tim Stockdale of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in Reading, UK.

Full Story
First Prev
of 4
Next Last
Earthling

Muro De Alcoy, Spain

#1 Sep 6, 2009
From the horse's mouth, an admittance that computer models are flawed.
In candid mood, climate scientists avoided blaming nature for their faltering predictions, however. "Model biases are also still a serious problem. We have a long way to go to get them right. They are hurting our forecasts," said Tim Stockdale of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in Reading, UK.
ROFLMAO!
I have a question for AGW alarmists, if weather models can't get it right, how much faith can we have with long term climate forecasting?

Since: Apr 08

"the green troll"

#2 Sep 6, 2009
Earthling wrote:
From the horse's mouth, an admittance that computer models are flawed.<quoted text>ROFLMAO!
I have a question for AGW alarmists, if weather models can't get it right, how much faith can we have with long term climate forecasting?
The answer is in the article:
"In many ways we know more about what will happen in the 2050s than next year," said Vicky Pope from the UK Met Office.
Earthling

Muro De Alcoy, Spain

#3 Sep 6, 2009
Vicky Pope is paid to say things like that.
Earthling

Muro De Alcoy, Spain

#4 Sep 6, 2009
And unless Vicky is very young, she will have retired by the 2050s, so won't worry if she's wrong.

I can tell you what will happen in the 2050s.
My weather forecast for that decade:
Winters will be generally cooler than summers.
Precipitation will bring a varied amount of snow to parts of the northern hemisphere and rain at times.
Summers in the UK will be the usual hit or miss, while further south in Spain, the weather will be cooler in the north.
Note: The worries about climate change will have been shelved by then in favour of a bigger problem, a world population of 12 billion, possibly more, will be seen as the major challenge faced by the world governments.
Although the inhabitants of some islands will probably still be asking for money to save them, but due to overpopulation, not rising sea level.

“Denying those who deny nature”

Since: Jun 07

Norfolk va

#5 Sep 6, 2009
Now Earthing, this is a disaster for those supporting AGW. Ater all if the climate is going to cool for the next couple of decades then how can they blame CO2 for causing warming. They needed to get everyone on the band wageon and reducing before this happened. That way they could claim credit.

The next couple of decades will see a bunch of people claiming a ice age is just a couple of years away and telling everyone whe have to switch to wind/solar, electric cars, and other green stuff. Just like back in the seventies. There will be news articles, reports and experts quoted about how if we don't all change right this minute that all will be lost. That the world will be ruined and that farms will be frozen or suffer from lack of water as it becomes locked up in the ice, people will go hungry.

And in it all we will be pointing out that climate changes all on it's own and that this is only a little thing in the history of climate.
frank miller

United States

#6 Sep 6, 2009
Global cooling as a natural progression cannot be entirely dismissed simply because man-kind heat
of transportation civilization {7600 kilocalories
per gallon of motor fuel burnt} exchanged to the
sea-level atmosphere via tail pipes, radiator cooling, and hot engine hoods] resulting in trillions of kilocalories/B.t.u. per millisecond
joining such renewable fuel sources as fermenting sugar cane/sugar beets heat of 153,000,000 b.t.u.
in Chemical Engineering parlance, or 94,000,000
kilocalories in metric sytem enthalpies PER
1000 gallons of E-85 ethanol fuel; and close to that in converting soybean oil to the volatile methyl-ester of bio-diesels "kerosene" Flash Point equivalent; CONVECTING out to very poor
heat conducting atmosphere {real green house effect} increases turbulences of temperate/tropical air masses when colliding with cold dry Polar air masses, as hot air rising,
is filled in immediately with colder denser air,
producing more rains/snows [GC], and desertification [GW] when there is not enough moisture to absorb the 640 calories/gram H2O
heat of vaporization and we get [GW]!
Extensive Reforestation to absorb all that man-kind heat which in the long/short run even, would overwhelm any natural global cooling effects!
F.M.
dwdsf

Houston, TX

#7 Sep 6, 2009
wdwd
Glasnos

Orlando, FL

#8 Sep 6, 2009
Or it could warm first and cool later ... or it could cool first ... and cooler later ... or ....

Anyone following the predictions of UK weather supercomputer? LOL ... can't predict tomorrow's weather ... so far it is about 180 degrees off ... which is about par for the left

None of the predictions from the left have been remotely accurate ... but they still insist they can predict 50 years from now.
Fun Facts

AOL

#9 Sep 6, 2009
I have been posting papers on the solar cycles of the sun that have predicted cooling for the next 20-30 years.

Seems like someone else has read them and realized if the end of the "cycles also explained the recent recovery of the Sahel region of Africa from the droughts of the 1970s and 1980s." could be predicted, and it was based on solar cycles, then maybe a good look at the solar cycles could explain what happened in the last 30 years.

The same scientist that predicted the end of the Sahelian drought also predicted the last three El Ninos based on the solar cycles.

Scaffeti and West wrote a paper on the lack of reliable information on the sun in climate computer models, because the models don't use the solar cycle patterns that have been recently developed.

In earth science, there are two major thoughts: the steady state and the chaos theory. Neither is correct. There is no steady state and what we see in climate is not chaos. There are many climate patterns that repeat themselves at various time intervals. It is hard to discern the patterns as they overlay each other and have specific manifestations depending on the relationship of one pattern to another.

We have the ability to observe and record what we see and to eventually understand what we see. We do not have the ability to change what our climate is like.

We will adapt or perish, which will be determined by either our acceptance of our natural world, or our arogance in trying to change our natural world.

Our next challenge will be drought...we need to forget CO2 and focus on how we will get water to the crop growing regions of our world.
Fair Game

Çanakkale, Turkey

#10 Sep 6, 2009
Fun Facts wrote:
I have been posting papers on the solar cycles of the sun that have predicted cooling for the next 20-30 years.
Seems like someone else has read them and realized if the end of the "cycles also explained the recent recovery of the Sahel region of Africa from the droughts of the 1970s and 1980s." could be predicted, and it was based on solar cycles, then maybe a good look at the solar cycles could explain what happened in the last 30 years.
The same scientist that predicted the end of the Sahelian drought also predicted the last three El Ninos based on the solar cycles.
Scaffeti and West wrote a paper on the lack of reliable information on the sun in climate computer models, because the models don't use the solar cycle patterns that have been recently developed.
In earth science, there are two major thoughts: the steady state and the chaos theory. Neither is correct. There is no steady state and what we see in climate is not chaos. There are many climate patterns that repeat themselves at various time intervals. It is hard to discern the patterns as they overlay each other and have specific manifestations depending on the relationship of one pattern to another.
We have the ability to observe and record what we see and to eventually understand what we see. We do not have the ability to change what our climate is like.
We will adapt or perish, which will be determined by either our acceptance of our natural world, or our arogance in trying to change our natural world.
Our next challenge will be drought...we need to forget CO2 and focus on how we will get water to the crop growing regions of our world.


You've posted a lot of papers all right, but none that has predicted cooling for the next 20-30 years (even the authors themselves have made clear that their papers don't contradict AGW!)
No, the solar cycles don't explain what happened in the last 30 years- Mojib Latif is talking about ocean cycles, and he only says that is responsible for some of the warming.
Mojib Latif is not a global warming sceptic, believes global warming will return even if there is cooling, and isn't arguing against taking action.
"Few climate scientists go as far as Latif", as the article says. I hope he's wrong- another twenty years of denier idiots telling us AGW is not real would be extremely tiresome, and twenty years of "adapt or perish" Libertarian/fascist philosophy even more irksome.
Southern B

Boone, NC

#11 Sep 6, 2009
What seems to be clear is that the models are wrong. Natural cycles explain a majority of warming and cooling that the earth as undergone in the last few decades. The most damaging thing to the AGW theory is the gross overstatement of the amount of warming and the dire consequence of warming. Expect the spin and the name calling to increase while more and more scientist back away from the most extreme elements of the AGW theory.
Glasnos

Orlando, FL

#12 Sep 6, 2009
Anyone recall the predictions of monster hurricanes after Katrina due to "global warming"?

The liberal enviornmentalists have been predicting one disaster after another ... all wrong. Their predictions have little to do with climate or fact ... just a prop for their liberal agenda ... One of the latest examples is Van Jones ... an avowed communist ... who discovered Green is the new red. Socialism for the sake of the earth ... LOL ... Why am I laughing? Some of you people are falling for it.
Earthling

Muro De Alcoy, Spain

#13 Sep 6, 2009
You have to hand it to FG and his ilk, because no matter what the climate does, catastrophe is always lurking at the end of their rainbow.
btw

Houston, TX

#15 Sep 6, 2009
Ken Lay of Enron urged President Clinton and Vice President Gore to back a "market-based" approach to the problem of global warming (cap n trade)-- a strategy that a later Enron memo makes clear would be "good for Enron stock."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A372...

We all know about Enrons energy gameing scam in CA

“Denying those who deny nature”

Since: Jun 07

Norfolk va

#16 Sep 6, 2009
Glasnos wrote:
Anyone recall the predictions of monster hurricanes after Katrina due to "global warming"?
The liberal enviornmentalists have been predicting one disaster after another ... all wrong. Their predictions have little to do with climate or fact ... just a prop for their liberal agenda ... One of the latest examples is Van Jones ... an avowed communist ... who discovered Green is the new red. Socialism for the sake of the earth ... LOL ... Why am I laughing? Some of you people are falling for it.
I remeber that like I remeber the redictions of a global ice age back in the seventies. The ironic part was the same cure for global warming was the same cure for clobal cooling.

“Denying those who deny nature”

Since: Jun 07

Norfolk va

#17 Sep 6, 2009
Earthling wrote:
You have to hand it to FG and his ilk, because no matter what the climate does, catastrophe is always lurking at the end of their rainbow.
More like for them that every silver cloud has a sark lining.

“Denying those who deny nature”

Since: Jun 07

Norfolk va

#18 Sep 6, 2009
dark lining
Fun Facts

AOL

#21 Sep 6, 2009
Fair Game wrote:
<quoted text>
You've posted a lot of papers all right, but none that has predicted cooling for the next 20-30 years (even the authors themselves have made clear that their papers don't contradict AGW!)
No, the solar cycles don't explain what happened in the last 30 years- Mojib Latif is talking about ocean cycles, and he only says that is responsible for some of the warming.
Mojib Latif is not a global warming sceptic, believes global warming will return even if there is cooling, and isn't arguing against taking action.
"Few climate scientists go as far as Latif", as the article says. I hope he's wrong- another twenty years of denier idiots telling us AGW is not real would be extremely tiresome, and twenty years of "adapt or perish" Libertarian/fascist philosophy even more irksome.
Here's some info you might have missed on the barycentric orbit of the sun and the solar activity associated with the barycentric cycle.

http://www.urban-renaissance.org/urbanren/pub...

http://plasmaresources.com/ozwx/landscheidt/p...

Since: Apr 08

"the green troll"

#22 Sep 7, 2009
Southern B wrote:
Expect the spin and the name calling to increase while more and more scientist back away from the most extreme elements of the AGW theory.
Did you even read the article? Mojib Latif is not a sceptic- he believes in AGW. He's not "backing away" from anything.

Who's trying to spin the story?
Earthling

Muro De Alcoy, Spain

#23 Sep 7, 2009
Fair Game wrote:
Who's trying to spin the story?
Apart from Fat Al, you and a few others?

Tell me when this thread is updated:

Subscribe Now Add to my Tracker
First Prev
of 4
Next Last

Add your comments below

Characters left: 4000

Please note by submitting this form you acknowledge that you have read the Terms of Service and the comment you are posting is in compliance with such terms. Be polite. Inappropriate posts may be removed by the moderator. Send us your feedback.

Health Discussions

Title Updated Last By Comments
UH-Manoa to begin total ban on smoking 25 min AlMorr 1
Flu shot deemed only 18% effective 2 hr VACCINE FAILS 1
Wakefield is not a fraud - His study linking MM... 2 hr Friend 54
People with diabetes more prone to depression, ... 3 hr mathewsteven10 2
Pizza chain sued over healthcare for gay couples (Aug '14) 4 hr Fa-Foxy 45
Pregnancy Symptoms - 12 Very Early Symptoms of ... (Jun '07) 4 hr Mistica 6,181
Becoming a Dentist (Jan '13) 5 hr mathewsteven10 54
More from around the web