By Chris Stirewalt
Published October 29, 2012
-- Mitt Romney’s advantage over President Obama among those swing state residents who are “extremely likely” to vote, according the latest Politico/George Washington University Battleground Survey.
Democrats love early voting because having Election Month instead of Election Day gives them time to use money and manpower to offset the GOP’s inherent advantage on voter turnout.
But is it worth more than 9 points this cycle?
That’s the gap between President Obama and Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney among those “extremely likely” to vote this year in the latest Politico/George Washington University poll of battleground states. While Obama holds a 1-point edge among all likely voters, he trails widely among those who say they are certain to vote.
When the bipartisan team of pollsters that conducted the poll tried to use turnout models to figure out how much of that gap would be closed come Election Day, the answer was less than half. In the poll’s election model, Romney was shown winning by a whopping 5 points.
This is an unfortunate time, therefore, to have a hurricane bearing down on the East Coast. With so much ground to make up, the president can ill-afford to lose even a day in places like Florida, Virginia, New Hampshire and, later this week, Ohio.
Team Obama’s strategy for the election has been based on community organizing principles, a cash advantage and having three years of lead time to get Democrats ready to carry the president to a second term.
Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/10/29/de...