Global warming: Arctic temps out of synch with natural cycles
New research shows that the Arctic reversed a long-term cooling trend and began warming rapidly in recent decades.
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#1 Oct 1, 2012
Yes. The normal slow cooling (0.2C per millenia) has been replace with a RAPID warming. It is the rapidity of this change that is likely to be the cause of costly climate disruption.
#2 Oct 3, 2012
Latest about Arctic sea ice melt 'and recovery':
+Barely ABOVE 4 million km2, Arctic sea ice extent is still BELOW any recorded level in any previous year for ~6 weeks, presently at 4,166,563 km2 (October 2, 2012), fractionally gaining ~25,000 km2(a bit more than West Virginia area) of sea ice the previous day, despite the sun, unseen, from the North Pole for 10+ days, temperatures above the 80th parallel, a bit above -13 degC, fractionally above normal, but previously running well over average. Much warmth built up in Arctic waters these past months is resisting its conversion back to sea ice, especially southern Arctic waters which have seen much more solar energy absorbed than northern Arctic clear waters.
Only along the Greenland east coast is sea ice extending greatly south. All other regions, including the Northwest Passage, Northeast Passage & Arctic waters, south of the Arctic Ice Pack, resist conversion back to Arctic sea ice.
IN ADDITION, for months, any downwellings in the Arctic waters that have been ice-free, have been conducting much captured solar energy radiating on those clear waters, to the depths of the continental shelves & Arctic Ocean.
This same Arctic Ocean warmth is & will continue to keep Arctic sea ice thinner through the coming winter & even spring. As of October 2, Arctic sea ice VOLUME is ~23% lower than any satellite recorded year AND indications of submarine-detected Arctic sea ice VOLUME.
Yes, the Arctic sea ice Volume is disappearing, day to day, & year to year, quicker than the Arctic sea ice extent, even in the time of Arctic sea ice increase.
#3 Nov 9, 2012
Arctic sea ice, either by satellite or submarine data, is above the 2007 and 2011 Arctic sea ice extent AND, a month later than 'normal', the sea ice average for the decades of 2000's, AND THE 1990's, at 8,227,344 km2 (November 7, 2012), the day's gain, somewhat more than Maryland-sized, with temperatures above the 80th parallel now at -20 degC. The sun has been unseen from the North Pole for 7+ weeks, temperatures on landforms surrounding the Arctic Ocean, as low as -28 & -33degC! After the Arctic cold outbreak, which has added three plus feet of snow to the results of Hurricane Sandy, Arctic cold is once more building.
Arctic Ocean warmth is & will continue to keep Arctic sea ice thinner through the coming winter & even spring. As of October 2, Arctic sea ice VOLUME is ~23% lower than any satellite recorded year AND indications of submarine-detected Arctic sea ice yearly VOLUME.
Yes, the Arctic sea ice VOLUME is disappearing, year to year, quicker than the Arctic sea ice extent.
Presently, Arctic sea ice extent is above 2007 AND 2011, the average minimum Arctic sea ice extent for the 2000's, the 1990's, & now the 1980's, at 8,248,281 km2 (November 8, 2012), the day's gain, small New Jersey-sized. Indeed, Arctic Ice Pack area, tho colder than normal for 3 weeks, beginning a month ago, is lower than the years, 2007, 2008 & 2011 for the same dates. Present temperatures on landforms surrounding the Arctic Ocean, have numerous areas into minus teen digits. Many northern AND some southern Canadian islands & Alaska have temperatures beyond the minus teens, with numerous lows near -25degC! Siberian temperatures are in the lower minus teens, with -25degC, the lowest.
The vast open Arctic waters north of Siberia have been covered by Arctic Ice Pack. The huge sea ice floes that strongly developed in the vast clear waters north of Siberia(due to broad double digit minus Siberian temps spilled from North Pole's 7 weeks of darkness & vortex mixing breaking down stratified solar heated waters?), have done their job AND connected the Ice Pack to the entire Siberian coastline, truly a remarkable development!
However, Franz Joseph Land & Svalbard, in winter darkness 24/7, are still clear of the Ice Pack!!!!!!!!!! A circular vortex just formed north of the line connecting both sets of islands. Wonder if the Ice Pack may expand in this area?
Rapid local expansion of Arctic Ice Pack now touches a part of the northern coast of Alaska!
A detail noted 25 days ago is a raggy taggy developing edge along a part of the semi-circle, possibly NOT coincidental with the HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS (plus?) OF SQUARE KILOMETERS, of waters north of Alaska & Siberia that are VASTLY CLEAR. Might the raggy taggy edge indicate huge turbulence & currents in this largest(ever?) ice free, & resulting southerly-directed heat stratified Arctic waters? I wonder if there might develop more raggy taggy edging, enough to form a swirl pattern?
Twenty four days ago, noted near the raggy taggy ice pack, developed 3 tiny pixel ice floes(arced?), separated from the Arctic ice pack toward southerly directions. Twenty three days ago, the number of ice floes increased to 8 & indeed they formed an ARC. Pretty sure they represent a large scale vortex in open Arctic water!
Further data, show that the vortex is true!
Downwelling solar heats, in unusual clear Arctic Ocean & seas, normally sea ice covered in decades past, which have strongly transported extra solar energy to continental shelf, sea & Ocean depths for 4 months, is over. The sun is unseen anywhere above the 74th parallel, now shrouding the Arctic with darkness for a good portion of the year! The northern parts of the Northwest Passage are in darkness 24/7. Only Alaskan, far north European, & far western Russian southern Arctic seas get a skimming from the sun for only a bit of the day, which is visually only a hand full of solar diameters off the horizon, at most!
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