Northeast U.S. May Experience Coldest Winter in a Decade, Forecaster Says

Sep 28, 2009 | Posted by: The Truth Matters | Full story: www.bloomberg.com

The U.S. Northeast may have the coldest winter in a decade because of a weak El Nino, a warming current in the Pacific Ocean, according to Matt Rogers , a forecaster at Commodity Weather Group.

“Weak El Ninos are notorious for cold and snowy weather on the Eastern seaboard,” Rogers said in a Bloomberg Television interview from Washington. “About 70 percent to 75 percent of the time a weak El Nino will deliver the goods in terms of above-normal heating demand and cold weather. It’s pretty good odds.”

Hedge-fund managers and other large speculators increased their net-long positions, or bets prices will rise, in New York heating oil futures in the week ended Sep. 22, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data Sept. 25.

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21 - 30 of 30 Comments Last updated Jan 31, 2010
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Fun Facts

AOL

#21 Sep 30, 2009
LessHypeMoreFact wrote:
<quoted text>
Good to know that you are referencing an authoritative source.. Now, next year is going to be hot because the end is nigh right? Ends in fire?
Well for January thru March 2010, it looks cool and cold. I haven't purchased this year's edition so haven't read the summer 2010 prediction yet. I'll let you know when I get it.

http://www.farmersalmanac.com/weather/a/frigi...
Fun Facts

AOL

#22 Sep 30, 2009
Raptor in Michigan wrote:
<quoted text>
The sun is in the southern hemisphere now. Could that have something to do with it?
I think it has a lot to do with it.
Normando

AOL

#23 Oct 12, 2009
I went to a seminar on local global warming (southern N.Y.) and the dude giving the spiel gave a nice pitch on the slight rise in average(0.2 o F)temperatures over the last 40 years in the Hudson valley. This of course was based on his own data .He had worked for the National weather service .When I questioned him about instrument calibration etc. over that time frame , he had no answer as to when, how often and what standards were ever used. I call it global BS .
letschanceit

United States

#24 Oct 12, 2009
frank miller wrote:
Micromanaging the weather is like "opening a box of chocolates, you never know what you gonna get",
a soft centre or a hard nut,'Fun Facts'#14/#15!!
F.M./C.S
first off I don't use judging icons. don't you have to be a registered user to do that? second why are you using the farmers' almanac? it predicts weather year to year. we want to predict the climate with scientific models that can be substantiated. not a "secret recipe" for next harvest moons' rainfall. also, where did you get eh temperature readings from the output from the nuclear reactor cooling discharge?
Chris

Honolulu, HI

#25 Oct 12, 2009
What is with this Frank Miller? I mean, is he schizophrenic or what???
JRS

Oak Creek, WI

#26 Oct 12, 2009
letschanceit wrote:
<quoted text>
first off I don't use judging icons. don't you have to be a registered user to do that? second why are you using the farmers' almanac? it predicts weather year to year. we want to predict the climate with scientific models that can be substantiated. not a "secret recipe" for next harvest moons' rainfall. also, where did you get eh temperature readings from the output from the nuclear reactor cooling discharge?
"scientific models that can be substantiated."
----------

ROFLMHO! "scientific models that can be substantiated."

You on drugs or what?

==

“The public is not well served by this constant drumbeat of false alarms fed by computer models manipulated by advocates.”

UN IPCC expert reviewer,
Dr. David Wojick
who earned his PhD in Philosophy of Science
and co-founded the Department of Engineering and Public Policy at Carnegie-Mellon University

http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm...

==

former member of the Dutch UN IPCC committee
Meteorologist Hajo Smit of Holland

"Climate models can at best be useful for explaining climate changes after the fact.”

http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm...

==

BILL GRAY, professor emeritus. He is often called the World's Most Famous Hurricane Expert.

Gray's crusade against global warming "hysteria" began in the early 1990s, when he saw enormous sums of federal research money going toward computer modeling rather than his kind of science, the old-fashioned stuff based on direct observation. Gray often cites the ascendancy of Gore to the vice presidency as the start of his own problems with federal funding. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) stopped giving him research grants. So did NASA. All the money was going to computer models. The field was going off on this wild tangent.

Numerical models can't predict the future, he says. They don't even pretend to predict the weather in the coming season -- "but they make predictions of 50 or 100 years from now and ask you to believe the Earth will get warmer."

The modelers are equation pushers.

"They haven't been down in the trenches, making forecasts and understanding stuff!"

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/...
Raptor in Michigan

Ecorse, MI

#27 Oct 12, 2009
Normando wrote:
I went to a seminar on local global warming (southern N.Y.) and the dude giving the spiel gave a nice pitch on the slight rise in average(0.2 o F)temperatures over the last 40 years in the Hudson valley. This of course was based on his own data .He had worked for the National weather service .When I questioned him about instrument calibration etc. over that time frame , he had no answer as to when, how often and what standards were ever used. I call it global BS .
Would you expect anything less?
letschanceit

United States

#28 Nov 6, 2009
JRS wrote:
<quoted text>
"scientific models that can be substantiated."
----------
ROFLMHO! "scientific models that can be substantiated."
You on drugs or what?
==
“The public is not well served by this constant drumbeat of false alarms fed by computer models manipulated by advocates.”
UN IPCC expert reviewer,
Dr. David Wojick
who earned his PhD in Philosophy of Science
and co-founded the Department of Engineering and Public Policy at Carnegie-Mellon University
http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm...
==
former member of the Dutch UN IPCC committee
Meteorologist Hajo Smit of Holland
"Climate models can at best be useful for explaining climate changes after the fact.”
http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm...
==
BILL GRAY, professor emeritus. He is often called the World's Most Famous Hurricane Expert.
Gray's crusade against global warming "hysteria" began in the early 1990s, when he saw enormous sums of federal research money going toward computer modeling rather than his kind of science, the old-fashioned stuff based on direct observation. Gray often cites the ascendancy of Gore to the vice presidency as the start of his own problems with federal funding. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) stopped giving him research grants. So did NASA. All the money was going to computer models. The field was going off on this wild tangent.
Numerical models can't predict the future, he says. They don't even pretend to predict the weather in the coming season -- "but they make predictions of 50 or 100 years from now and ask you to believe the Earth will get warmer."
The modelers are equation pushers.
"They haven't been down in the trenches, making forecasts and understanding stuff!"
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/...
good post. you realize your "expert" IPCC reviewer is a consultant to industry and corporate-funded groups such as the Heartland Institute, Cato Institute and Citizens for a Sound Economy? not that it takes away from his credentials. just his motives. also, your meteorologist is a weatherman not a climatologist and ANY model is best useful for explaining changes after the fact. maybe NOAA stopped giving wojick research money because he was getting paid by industry and corporate-funded groups and trade associations.
most available empirical data was used for the "models". and, IMO virtual models are the more intelligent choice in this case mainly because it's a relatively new science and full scale models are in short supply. anyway good post, thanks for the links. although the EPW stuff is almost insufferable in it's own political tangents and near incoherent links.
letschanceit

United States

#29 Nov 8, 2009
JRS wrote:
<quoted text>
"scientific models that can be substantiated."
----------
ROFLMHO! "scientific models that can be substantiated."
You on drugs or what?
==
“The public is not well served by this constant drumbeat of false alarms fed by computer models manipulated by advocates.”
UN IPCC expert reviewer,
Dr. David Wojick
who earned his PhD in Philosophy of Science
and co-founded the Department of Engineering and Public Policy at Carnegie-Mellon University
http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm...
==
former member of the Dutch UN IPCC committee
Meteorologist Hajo Smit of Holland
"Climate models can at best be useful for explaining climate changes after the fact.”
http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm...
==
BILL GRAY, professor emeritus. He is often called the World's Most Famous Hurricane Expert.
Gray's crusade against global warming "hysteria" began in the early 1990s, when he saw enormous sums of federal research money going toward computer modeling rather than his kind of science, the old-fashioned stuff based on direct observation. Gray often cites the ascendancy of Gore to the vice presidency as the start of his own problems with federal funding. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) stopped giving him research grants. So did NASA. All the money was going to computer models. The field was going off on this wild tangent.
Numerical models can't predict the future, he says. They don't even pretend to predict the weather in the coming season -- "but they make predictions of 50 or 100 years from now and ask you to believe the Earth will get warmer."
The modelers are equation pushers.
"They haven't been down in the trenches, making forecasts and understanding stuff!"
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/...
my point about scientific models was that they can be studied, revised, improved etc. by anyone. compared to the "secret recipe" used by the farmers almanac to predict rainfall the coming year. also, weather prediction and climate prediction are not the same. and, you are supposing that the reason NOAA and NASA went with computer models rather than "his kind of science, the old-fashioned stuff based on direct observation" was because they could fabricate the results? What if they went with the "wild tangent" of computer modeling because of cost and time of real world observations. the real world, old fashioned stuff is still being implemented and improved as well.
fax

Atlantic, VA

#30 Jan 31, 2010
These are fun to read when you now know the answers. Its January 31, 2010 1:05 pm. and
the temp was 2 below zero last night and has
heated up to 3 above. Have had 4 days since
Dec.17 we have seen the ground. 2 foot of snow
at some time. we are now tied with the year 1928.

With 2 ft of snow on your roof, solar panels
would not have had a chance of helping.

Should have contacted Al Gore or one of his
favorite scientist.

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