Woes deepen for home builders
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#1 Jul 18, 2007
The land exodus of these national builders is a scary financial tone for publicly traded home builders, investors holding all for dear life in these stocks; where there is a very dark cloud above, and a bottomless pit below; these stocks in my opinion should be selling at pre-bubble prices, which indicate a possible slicing of another 50& to 75% decline from current levels, all home owners that have sub-prime mortgages, home owners that have prime mortgages that are playing the rolling debt game.
The suppliers, sub-contractors, trade groups, all employees working with these publicly traded companies, manufactures of building related products, mortgage companies and banks, credit card companies, retailors in all categories, specialty fast food restaurants, vacation get aways, are facing very uncertain times.
Lawyers, should fair well in the legal issues that they will bring in a "cause of action" for all the irregularities that have been perpetrated on almost everyone tagged to the NYSE new home builders,especially the buyers of said homes. Everyone's loss is the lawyers gain, and they will do more good for the consumers than not.
Bankruptcies and credit spreads will start haunting the NYSE builders and those that have junk bond status being shadowed around them, probably converting to the real substance as they are defined.
Just as in Japan our mismanaged economy will put our country in a pall of financial crisis, maybe not for the filty rich, but for the middle class, as BOB DYLAN sang, " the times they are a changing ".
Almost three years ago I was warning about the pending disaster in the New Home Building Industry and Secondary Market. For this I was told that I am a pessimist, a detractor, non-informed, had a ax to grind with the Real Estate Market, etc,etc,etc,.
Everything I talked about in chat rooms has come to fruition. I find it hard to believe the captains of the ship, were really asleep,or drowning in greed. I warned small investors to stay the hell away from NYSE BUILDER stocks as they were captivated by big money center funds.
I looked at the housing market back then as a "STOCK MARKET OF HOMES" being traded as if on the exchanges. Traders known as flippers were buying and selling as if on the pink sheets, the mortgage companies and New Home Builders were the analysts fudging all the numbers so they could collect a fee on the transaction.
Going forward the Housing Market will not , now read this carefully, will not recover until at least the latter part of 2010 or 2011. There is an unreal large inventory supply with almost all NYSE Builders and then add up all the foreclosures and then add up all the NEW HOMES just sitting in communities FOR SALE, never lived in, by Realtors, Flippers, and whomever else, played the housing market as if a stock trading arena.
Bernanke, I believe is shielding the truth so as not to create a panic across the spectrum of weakness in the Home Building Industry, which would spill over to all markets and effect the entire economy.
Home purchases may increase if Housing falls up to 50% in values throughout bubble markets. Home purchases may increase if monies, salaries paid to potential home buyers increased by 50%; we know that Bernanke would rather see falling home prices than increased wages. Falling home prices are deflationary while rising wages are inflationary.
So do not waste your time opining about the housing markets, it is what it is until the next decade.
#3 Oct 29, 2008
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