Pennsylvania In Play
Posted in the Columbus Forum
Since: Sep 12
#1 Oct 31, 2012
(Reuters)- A new poll released on Wednesday is the latest indication that Pennsylvania, which has not voted Republican in a presidential race since 1988, could do so again next week.
In one month, an 11-percentage-point lead held by President Barack Obama has dwindled to 4 points, according to a survey by Franklin and Marshall College's Center for Opinion Research.
While few are predicting a Romney victory, the state is now in play, with its haul of 20 electoral votes, two more than Ohio.
That explains why the "super PAC" American Crossroads, supporting Republican challenger Mitt Romney, has begun running ads in the state, and why the Obama campaign is responding in kind.
Ann Koberna, a Democratic activist and former school teacher in the Philadelphia suburb of Doylestown, did not need a poll or ads to see that support for Obama was eroding ahead of next Tuesday's election.
She noticed it just after the first debate, on October 3, which boosted Romney's national poll numbers after his strong performance. All of a sudden, she said, Romney-Ryan lawn signs started popping up in Doylestown and now they are all over the place.
"It's troubling," she said, noting she recently planted an Obama sign in her front lawn as a "counterbalance."
"I know people who voted for Obama last time but aren't this time," Koberna said. She attributes the shift less to the debate than the economy. "They are looking for someone to blame."
The Franklin and Marshall poll supports her observation.
Of the registered voters polled, 47 percent said Romney was the "most prepared to fix our economic problems," versus 42 percent for Obama. That was almost exactly the reverse of the result in Franklin and Marshall's poll taken in September.
The unemployment rate in Pennsylvania has been stubborn, increasing slightly in September to 8.2 percent, versus the national rate's decline in the same month to 7.8 percent.
She suspects the debate was a factor too.
A lot of people changed their minds after the first debate, the Franklin and Marshall poll showed, with 22 percent of those who did citing the debate as one of the reasons.
"For the first time I can remember, we have no shortage of volunteers," said Joseph Flood, a local Republican committeeman.
"Before the debate, Romney supporters were mostly anti-Obama. Now they are strongly pro-Romney," said Flood.
#2 Oct 31, 2012
Also worth noting is that the RCP Iowa average is down to 1.3 points. Iowa is now closer than Ohio.
Discounting the unreliable Marquette poll, if Rasmussen produces a 2 point Romney lead in the next WI poll, Romney does not need Ohio.
I do want to see Romney win Ohio and get 300+ to beat GWB, but I am OK with this state's idiot socialists to realize that they no longer matter. The mythology of GM and the union worker earning 30 times what someone overseas makes for the same job needs to be brought into cold reality.
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