Why Obama Can't Win
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Cleavon Little

Since: Sep 12

Hilliard, OH

#1 Nov 5, 2012
11/5: See also this update on a new CNN poll showing independents breaking for Romney by 22 points which would translate into a 7-8 point margin of victory.
There are dozens of presidential opinion polls these days, and even more interpretations what they mean. But predictions keep changing, which calls into question how useful they are. The closer you get to an election the easier it is to call it, at least in theory. But it is not really predicting when you change your take on the race with every new poll. For example Nate Silver at his New York Times blog has consistently “predicted” an Obama victory, yet has altered the odds on a daily basis. This is the equivalent of claiming you can predict the outcome of a baseball game, but then changing the odds inning by inning to reflect the evolving state of play. Yes your “prediction” will be very accurate once you reach the 9th inning, but it also doesn't take a stat wizard to make the call.
Traditional social science models do more than simply rehash and average out the latest daily surveys. They look at the influence of variables like age, education, income, sex, race, the economy, and other such factors to come up with more durable conclusions. For example University of Colorado Professors Ken Bickers and Michael Berry have developed a model based on state-level economic data that predicts Mitt Romney winning with 330 electoral votes. They have applied this model successfully to every presidential race since 1980. It does not shift around with the polls; in fact it does not use them at all.
The most robust predictor of individual voter behavior is party ID. In these hyper-partisan times, if you know someone’s party affiliation you can say how they will vote with around 95% certainty.
Party ID favors the GOP. 2012 is the first modern presidential election in which the Republicans are going in with a clear edge. Rasmussen’s breakdown is 36.8 Republican, 34.2 Democrat and 29.0 independent. Gallup has the split at 36/35/29. Some have criticized the accuracy of these organizations’ methods – and Gallup has had to deal with the Justice Department, allegedly for coming up with results not to the Obama campaign’s liking. But in the last two elections these pollsters have generated party ID numbers that closely tracked with exit polls of actual voters.
The Republican plurality is not a statistical blip but part of a long term trend. Democrats had about an 8 point advantage in party ID in November 2008, but they quickly lost their lead. By the November 2010 midterm election – the seismic shift in which Republicans took more seats from Democrats than in any midterm election since 1938 – Republicans held a 1.3% party ID edge. Democrats have successfully rewritten the historical narrative to ignore the importance of the 2010 “shellacking.” However the forces that gave Republicans control of Congress then are even stronger now, and since 2010 the GOP advantage has grown to 2.6%.
Seventy percent of the electorate is distributed between the two parties, so the election will be decided by the independents. Throughout the race independents have been leaning towards Romney. So if most voters follow their party, and independents break for Mr. Romney, he will win the popular vote. No doubt about it.
This is easily calculable. Assume the parties hold 95% of their adherents with the rest crossing over, and independents split between Romney and Obama 53/47. In that case Mr. Romney wins by 4 points using the Rasmussen data (52/48) and 2.6 using Gallup (51.3/48.7). If the independents break a full 10%, 55/45, the results are 52.6/47.4 Rasmussen, and 52/48 Gallup. In other words, Romney by 4-5 percent.

Cleavon Little

Since: Sep 12

Hilliard, OH

#2 Nov 5, 2012
This model may understate Mr. Romney’s vote because it does not take into account the enthusiasm gap between the two parties. Just like in 2010, Republicans and anti-Obama independents are much more motivated than Democrats and other Obama supporters. That could be worth another point or two in the popular vote spread.
How these national totals translate into electoral votes is another matter. The same calculations would have to be done state by state, with reliable party ID data, if available. They would also have to factor in the influence of third party candidates who can have an outsized influence in close state races. Case in point Ralph Nader received over 97,000 votes in Florida in 2000, a state which Al Gore lost by 537 votes. Razor-thin margins in swing states in 2012 will likewise amplify the impact of the marginal candidates and could lead to some surprises.
However, facing larger numbers of more enthusiastic Republicans, and with independents turning against him, Mr. Obama can’t win. And on Tuesday we will find out.
Read more: TRR: Why Obama Can't Win - Washington Times http://www.washingtontimes.com/blog/robbins-r...
Follow us:@washtimes on Twitter
LOL

Columbus, OH

#4 Nov 21, 2012
So Obama couldn't win, huh? Once again the cut & paste king was WRONG. Always running that mouth about things you know nothing about. When are you ever going to learn, boy?
notlocal

AOL

#6 Nov 23, 2012
George Jefferson wrote:
<quoted text>
Obama did win & he's(Cleavon Little)not happy.
Neither are 50% of the country. It's really not a win when you conduct it under several cover ups. Obama's still a lying, arrogant SOB embarassment along with the rest of his administration.
Lost lasting deal he and Hillary brokered this week through Eqypt. Morsi declared himself a dictator today. Surprise, surprise. Guess those arms won't stop flowing through Eqypt as promised. Wow, what a foreign and diplomatic genius.
Susan Rice for Sec. of State? Why not just appoint Ex. Gen. Betray Us. Lying is a way of life to him too.

“Don't trust the internet!”

Since: Jan 12

Location hidden

#7 Nov 23, 2012
notlocal wrote:
<quoted text>
Neither are 50% of the country. It's really not a win when you conduct it under several cover ups. Obama's still a lying, arrogant SOB embarassment along with the rest of his administration.
Lost lasting deal he and Hillary brokered this week through Eqypt. Morsi declared himself a dictator today. Surprise, surprise. Guess those arms won't stop flowing through Eqypt as promised. Wow, what a foreign and diplomatic genius.
Susan Rice for Sec. of State? Why not just appoint Ex. Gen. Betray Us. Lying is a way of life to him too.
Is that what Rush was telling you today?

Speaking of embarrassment, the Republicans have been having a hard time swallowing this election (a majority of both the popular vote and the electoral college) because they believed their own hype in the right-wing media.

Perhaps it is time to take a step back and reflect on what is true and what is not.
notlocal

AOL

#8 Nov 23, 2012
FKA Reader wrote:
<quoted text>
Is that what Rush was telling you today?
Speaking of embarrassment, the Republicans have been having a hard time swallowing this election (a majority of both the popular vote and the electoral college) because they believed their own hype in the right-wing media.
Perhaps it is time to take a step back and reflect on what is true and what is not.
You know, Reader, I know who Rush Limbaugh is, but have never listened to him. He's a zealot who got caught with some prescription durgs I understand.

Yes, we are having a hard time accepting the results since Romney had an actual plan and some ethics, the polls all showed him ahead, until Sandy hit the east coast, and he inspired optimism to those of us, I THINK we're still the majority, who don't live on government hand outs. Things like a balanced budget, a solid economy, DIGNITY. He had twice the turn out at campaign events as Obama.

But then the voting started and voters all over the country were reporting that they voted for Romney and Obama popped up on the screen. But they were assured their vote had counted correctly.

The NAACP showed up in Texas polling places INSIDE the buildings, in NAACP gear handing out water and, in at lease one case, working as a pollster.

The Black Panthers were out in force in Philadelphia, AGAIN, at polling places and to everyone's astonishment 59 districts there reported not ONE Romney vote. I understand Ohio experienced the same mystery in some disricts. And in another, you had 109% voter turn out which went to Obama.

St. Lucie FL had 141% voter turn out. How does that happen?

And probably worse, a GREAT deal of our military ballots were not sent to them timely and their votes remain uncounted to this day.

It's not a matter of 'who wins and who's a loser.' It's a matter of which man was better suited to be president, leader and move the country forward at a dangerous time. That man didn't win. So the abject disappointment set in immediately to those of us with any understanding of where we are headed.

Then we learn some of the things that had been covered up prior to the election. Iran had fired on one of our drones. The head of the CIA was having an 'open secret' adulterous affair for years and our security had been possibly breached. And that this man of sterling reputation had gone before committee on 9/14 and LIED about the terrorist attack on 9/11. And he failed to intercede and help the Americans killed there. You think there was even the remotest chance that Obama did not know? He knew. He withheld until after the election.

Committees are still waiting for documents on F&F, when do you think they'll every get unredacted ones on that or Benghazi?

These are the things we don't know. There are mountains of things we DON'T and never will know. And what's up Obama's sleeve with Putin, now that he has the 'flexability of the election being over"?

You may be the most prolific reader of all time, but I am a doer. I work and understand capitalism and lack of morals and where it lands you and that no matter who you are, you answer to someone. You simply do not. I doubt you've ever held a postion of responsibility in your life.

You tell me to 'reflect on what is true'? Stop kidding yourself and start looking at the lying and cover ups this administration, right to the top, have participated in and the outcomes. And there will be more. Leopards do not change their spots.

America lost a huge opportunity, and given the circumstnces I listed, which are certainly not all, probably by fraud and lying and vicious, untrue attack ads.

I avoid you because I do not like you or respect you. I feel the same about your president and his car full of clowns.

And where in this country is there any right wing media? Don't say FOX because I hear the leftist BS on that station all the time too. Just not to
ad nausema like the MSM and MSNBC.

“Meh.”

Since: Aug 10

Location hidden

#9 Nov 23, 2012
The 141 turnout is due to there being a 2 page ballot and the ballot page each being counted as a "vote" in the official tally, with the information that this is what the "total" being made available to the public alongside the results! Yay for facts!

“Meh.”

Since: Aug 10

Location hidden

#10 Nov 23, 2012
Here it is, someone in another thread found it http://www.slcelections.com/

“Hi-Yo Silver! Away!”

Since: Aug 12

Location hidden

#11 Nov 23, 2012
notlocal's drinking the Kool-Aid. Yeah, Romney had a plan, here it is: "blah blah blah blah blah". And no ethics. Constantly flipping positions, openly lying in the debates.

We've averted a disaster.
notlocal

AOL

#12 Nov 23, 2012
tranpsosition wrote:
The 141 turnout is due to there being a 2 page ballot and the ballot page each being counted as a "vote" in the official tally, with the information that this is what the "total" being made available to the public alongside the results! Yay for facts!
Well, then wouldn't have been 200%? I know what you are telling me. And I don't hold any animosity towards you.

But what about the 800,000 missing military ballots?
The Black panthers at the polling places in Philly?
The NAACP in Texas and NOT being expelled from the building?
What about the mal-functioning voting machines that just happened to throw the vote to Obama. Were those votes ever cancelled?
Why were Romney's crowds so much bigger and his voters more enthused?

Doesn't matter. It's over. Obama's still a liar and an embarassment and will have us paying for all the government give aways he and his staff can think of.

It's happened in all administrations, but he has gone beyond the pale in arrogance and abuse of power, while he wires our money to Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood, Michelle takes more vacations and this country cripples under inflation and unemployment.

His appeal to me and my respect for him are not likely to improve.

I rarely reply to Reader. She's an idiot.
notlocal

AOL

#13 Nov 23, 2012
Kemosahbe wrote:
notlocal's drinking the Kool-Aid. Yeah, Romney had a plan, here it is: "blah blah blah blah blah". And no ethics. Constantly flipping positions, openly lying in the debates.
We've averted a disaster.
Funny Obama flipped his position on gay marriage within 6 months of the upcoming election.

Ethics? Romeny would not have lasted one year in business without ethics.

Romney never lied in a debate. Obama did and had to have Crowley abeit him in it. He's a loser and loser' always lose in the end.

But you enjoy you free whatever you get from him. And by the way, The Lone Ranger and Silver called. They'd like you to stop using their image less they have to geld you. Tonto will hold your sorry azz down.

Night nice in Eqypt. Don't be surprised if you see that here.
Karl

Sharon Center, OH

#14 Nov 23, 2012
Kemosahbe wrote:
notlocal's drinking the Kool-Aid. Yeah, Romney had a plan, here it is: "blah blah blah blah blah". And no ethics. Constantly flipping positions, openly lying in the debates.
We've averted a disaster.
Obama's "plans" are no different than Hollande's.

“Meh.”

Since: Aug 10

Location hidden

#15 Nov 24, 2012
notlocal wrote:
<quoted text>
Well, then wouldn't have been 200%? I know what you are telling me. And I don't hold any animosity towards you.
But what about the 800,000 missing military ballots?
The Black panthers at the polling places in Philly?
The NAACP in Texas and NOT being expelled from the building?
What about the mal-functioning voting machines that just happened to throw the vote to Obama. Were those votes ever cancelled?
Why were Romney's crowds so much bigger and his voters more enthused?
Doesn't matter. It's over. Obama's still a liar and an embarassment and will have us paying for all the government give aways he and his staff can think of.
It's happened in all administrations, but he has gone beyond the pale in arrogance and abuse of power, while he wires our money to Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood, Michelle takes more vacations and this country cripples under inflation and unemployment.
His appeal to me and my respect for him are not likely to improve.
I rarely reply to Reader. She's an idiot.
It would have been 200% if 100% of the voters had voted and if the ones that did vote had all returned both pages of their ballot. This is pretty common sense. Also, detailed in the link.

I think what has been really hurtful for Romney supporters is that the oft maligned polls and number crunching geeks were pretty much spot on. While during the run up to the election, rejecting the math seemed a really important part of holding on to the idea that things were secretly going for your candidate, that the polls were skewed and that there would be a secret tideswell vindicating your position. Where as, actually, things have played out much as predicted, with Obama winning by a rather larger margin of the popular vote than the media's characterization of the "borderline" race would have had me expect.

Though it's been a useful reminder to place my faith in numbers and science.
Karl

Wadsworth, OH

#16 Nov 24, 2012
tranpsosition wrote:
<quoted text>
It would have been 200% if 100% of the voters had voted and if the ones that did vote had all returned both pages of their ballot. This is pretty common sense. Also, detailed in the link.
I think what has been really hurtful for Romney supporters is that the oft maligned polls and number crunching geeks were pretty much spot on. While during the run up to the election, rejecting the math seemed a really important part of holding on to the idea that things were secretly going for your candidate, that the polls were skewed and that there would be a secret tideswell vindicating your position. Where as, actually, things have played out much as predicted, with Obama winning by a rather larger margin of the popular vote than the media's characterization of the "borderline" race would have had me expect.
Though it's been a useful reminder to place my faith in numbers and science.
Your faith lies in Keynesian foolery, and soon enough will be Islam.

“Hi-Yo Silver! Away!”

Since: Aug 12

Location hidden

#17 Nov 24, 2012
notlocal wrote:
<quoted text>
Funny Obama flipped his position on gay marriage within 6 months of the upcoming election.
Ethics? Romeny would not have lasted one year in business without ethics.
Romney never lied in a debate. Obama did and had to have Crowley abeit him in it. He's a loser and loser' always lose in the end.
But you enjoy you free whatever you get from him. And by the way, The Lone Ranger and Silver called. They'd like you to stop using their image less they have to geld you. Tonto will hold your sorry azz down.
Night nice in Eqypt. Don't be surprised if you see that here.
Do not use "business" and "ethics" in the same sentence unless you also use "lack of" in front of "ethics".

Romney lied about his tax cuts in the debate. If you don't acknowledge that, you weren't watching.

You are incredibly naive.
notlocal

AOL

#18 Nov 24, 2012
Kemosahbe wrote:
<quoted text>
Do not use "business" and "ethics" in the same sentence unless you also use "lack of" in front of "ethics".
Romney lied about his tax cuts in the debate. If you don't acknowledge that, you weren't watching.
You are incredibly naive.
Romney did not lie in any debate, as I pointed out, Obama did, Crowley aided him, and later apologized.

If your word is not your bond in business, you do not last and you surely do not succeed. You don't understand that any more than your lying president.

No, I am increditabilty savvy and experienced. Open the Keystone pipeline and persue real energy and well paying jobs are created instantly.

3 workers paying $10. FWT per wk =$30.
5 workers paying $ 8. FWT per wk =$40.

20% cut for the middle class and more tax collected for the nation. Plus saving federal $ from people coming off unemployment and assistance and more $ back into the economy creating more jobs and raising the GDP.

It's so friggin simple even you should be able to understand it.

Obama's plan: Hire more teachers. Go to East Asia, mispronouce everyone's name and misidentify countries, seek trade agreements where there is no infrastructure. All while we are in dire need of a fiscal agreement here, Hamas and Israel are firing on eachother and Morsi declares himself a dictator, sending rioters into the streets.

Yeah, that's real leadership.

“Don't trust the internet!”

Since: Jan 12

Location hidden

#19 Nov 24, 2012
notlocal wrote:
<quoted text>
Well, then wouldn't have been 200%? I know what you are telling me. And I don't hold any animosity towards you.
But what about the 800,000 missing military ballots?
The Black panthers at the polling places in Philly?
The NAACP in Texas and NOT being expelled from the building?
What about the mal-functioning voting machines that just happened to throw the vote to Obama. Were those votes ever cancelled?
Why were Romney's crowds so much bigger and his voters more enthused?
Doesn't matter. It's over. Obama's still a liar and an embarassment and will have us paying for all the government give aways he and his staff can think of.
It's happened in all administrations, but he has gone beyond the pale in arrogance and abuse of power, while he wires our money to Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood, Michelle takes more vacations and this country cripples under inflation and unemployment.
His appeal to me and my respect for him are not likely to improve.
I rarely reply to Reader. She's an idiot.
I don't know that any amount of logic or facts is going to sway you notlocal, but, the 141% could mean that 70%(or so) of those registered voted. However, even such an approximation is off due to the fact that not every voter voted on both parts of the ballot--apparently a number of the absentee voters only returned one page. But someone--having no more ethics than Rush Limbaugh (who defends himself as being an entertainer not a journalist) puts out a factoid like the 141% number and it's all over the internet before anyone does any checking.

Likewise the "black panthers out at Philadelphia precincts" I believed was a single New Black Panther Party member at a single Philidelphia precinct. And as far as NAACP workers handing out water to people waiting in line? Are you afraid that there was something in the water? Or that having a drink of water might help someone to stay in line and vote instead of giving up and going home? I saw some voter machine difficulties--running both directions. Reported on the news was that they were recalibrated (apparently the touch screens were too sensitive or something) and put back into service with no problems. Such machines have a double check at the end--showing the voter who they had voted for and providing the opportunity to go back and change any errors.

Bigger crowds and more enthusiasm? Well, that is the stuff of the echo chamber. And within the echo chamber it doesn't matter if you are listening to Rush, or Glenn or Sean or Bll--or lots of others. If that is all you are paying attention to, you are likely to believe that the hype is the truth. And this is always dangerous.

“Don't trust the internet!”

Since: Jan 12

Location hidden

#20 Nov 24, 2012
notlocal wrote:
<quoted text>
Ethics? Romeny would not have lasted one year in business without ethics.
ROFLMAO!!!!!!!!!!
notlocal

AOL

#22 Nov 24, 2012
Observation Deck wrote:
The election is over
Valid point.
notlocal

AOL

#23 Nov 24, 2012
FKA Reader wrote:
<quoted text>
ROFLMAO!!!!!!!!!!
Reader, you don't know the first thing about business. You're a taker, I'm an achiever. I am sincerely generous by nature, you use your liberalism as a tool to enrich yourself. Best if I put you back on my 'ignore list.'

Enjoy your life living on government hand outs, I pay for, and accepting 'foster children', whom you claim to have adopted, so that you can exploit them for the additional 'income' they bring you.

You have no one fooled but yourself.

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