Washington State -- Poll Shows Majori...

Washington State -- Poll Shows Majority Back Same-Sex Marriage

There are 25 comments on the www.columbian.com story from Jan 9, 2012, titled Washington State -- Poll Shows Majority Back Same-Sex Marriage. In it, www.columbian.com reports that:

Vancouver resident Robert Meyer married his wife more than a year ago. He hopes gays and lesbians will gain the same right in 2012.

Join the discussion below, or Read more at www.columbian.com.

First Prev
of 2
Next Last

“Headed toward the cliff”

Since: Nov 07

Tawas City, Michigan

#1 Jan 9, 2012
Interesting poll. 55% of all respondants said they would vote for to uphold a marriage equality bill. Broken down by age, 60% of those under age 65 support it. The only group opposed in those over age 65- only 48% support it.

These are the kind of numbers we need to see if we're going to win at the ballot box. Very encouraging.

Washington, New Jersey, & Maryland are all going to attempt to pass marriage bills this month. The 2012 marriage equality battle is on!

“WAY TO GO”

Since: Mar 11

IRELAND

#2 Jan 9, 2012
WeTheSheeple wrote:
Interesting poll. 55% of all respondants said they would vote for to uphold a marriage equality bill. Broken down by age, 60% of those under age 65 support it. The only group opposed in those over age 65- only 48% support it.
These are the kind of numbers we need to see if we're going to win at the ballot box. Very encouraging.
Washington, New Jersey, & Maryland are all going to attempt to pass marriage bills this month. The 2012 marriage equality battle is on!
Good, let the battle begin!!!

“Together for 24, legal for 5”

Since: Sep 07

Littleton, NH

#3 Jan 9, 2012
Those results are encouraging, but I'm a bit suspicious. Support in the Puget Sound area sounds right. But the high levels of support elsewhere in the state don't jive well with the election results in 2009. Outside of Spokane, there was strong opposition to Prop 71.

Two pieces of good news: The opponents have already unloaded all their ammo during the civil union campaign. It will be less effective this time. By now the images of same-sex couples and families should be unremarkable. And the presidential election should draw out a wider cross-section of the electorate. Even if Republicans do come out in greater numbers, the younger ones will mitigate that effect.

“Together for 24, legal for 5”

Since: Sep 07

Littleton, NH

#4 Jan 9, 2012
Maryland, too, has a people's veto law. So there will be an initiative in Maine and probably veto attempts in Washington and Maryland. Plus, of course, DOMA amendments in NC and MN.

If we win even one of those fights, our opponents will be devastated. It will be an interesting election. And we'll choose a president, too.

“Headed toward the cliff”

Since: Nov 07

Tawas City, Michigan

#5 Jan 9, 2012
nhjeff wrote:
Those results are encouraging, but I'm a bit suspicious. Support in the Puget Sound area sounds right. But the high levels of support elsewhere in the state don't jive well with the election results in 2009. Outside of Spokane, there was strong opposition to Prop 71.
Two pieces of good news: The opponents have already unloaded all their ammo during the civil union campaign. It will be less effective this time. By now the images of same-sex couples and families should be unremarkable. And the presidential election should draw out a wider cross-section of the electorate. Even if Republicans do come out in greater numbers, the younger ones will mitigate that effect.
Actually the poll found that 57% are opposed in the counties in eastern Washington, which is to be expected. The results from ref 71 in 2009 showed an average of 65% in eastern Washington voted against. Voter turnout in 2009 was only 50% and skewed more elderly as usual in a non-presidential election.

That said, I'm sure it's still going to be a close election, but it's certainly the most encouraging poll I've seen to date.

Btw, the group that did this poll is the same group which did some of the most accurate polling of Ref 71.

“Headed toward the cliff”

Since: Nov 07

Tawas City, Michigan

#6 Jan 9, 2012
Based on everything I've read, here's my predictions for the 2012 votes:

NC- marriage ban passes by at least a 10% margin.
MN- marriage ban passes 55%-45%.
WA- marriage equality passes legislature, upheld by voters 52%-48%. Anti-gays sue for endless recounts.
ME- marriage referendum passes by a handful of votes. Anti-gays sue for endless recounts.
NJ- marriage bill passes legislature, but fails to overcome the Govs veto.
MD- marriage bill passes legislature, but loses in the voter veto 55%-45%
NH- legislature votes to overturn marriage equality, but don't have the votes to overcome the Govs veto.

Now I'm on the record; we'll see how good my crystal ball is!

“Together for 24, legal for 5”

Since: Sep 07

Littleton, NH

#7 Jan 9, 2012
WeTheSheeple wrote:
<quoted text>
Actually the poll found that 57% are opposed in the counties in eastern Washington, which is to be expected. The results from ref 71 in 2009 showed an average of 65% in eastern Washington voted against.
That is exactly what I mean. An area that opposed civil unions by 2:1 seems more likely to strongly oppose marriage equality than the moderate opposition suggested by this pole.

“Together for 24, legal for 5”

Since: Sep 07

Littleton, NH

#8 Jan 9, 2012
WeTheSheeple wrote:
Based on everything I've read, here's my predictions for the 2012 votes:
NC- marriage ban passes by at least a 10% margin.
MN- marriage ban passes 55%-45%.
WA- marriage equality passes legislature, upheld by voters 52%-48%. Anti-gays sue for endless recounts.
ME- marriage referendum passes by a handful of votes. Anti-gays sue for endless recounts.
NJ- marriage bill passes legislature, but fails to overcome the Govs veto.
MD- marriage bill passes legislature, but loses in the voter veto 55%-45%
NH- legislature votes to overturn marriage equality, but don't have the votes to overcome the Govs veto.
Now I'm on the record; we'll see how good my crystal ball is!
I could quibble about a percentage point or two in MD, ME and WA. I think ME is actually in a better position to pass than WA. But my only substantial disagreement is that one of the NJ houses will drop the controversial marriage proposal before it gets to the governor. Still, it will reach Cristie sometime during his tenure.

“Marriage Equality”

Since: Dec 07

Lakeland, MI

#9 Jan 9, 2012
WeTheSheeple wrote:
Based on everything I've read, here's my predictions for the 2012 votes:
NC- marriage ban passes by at least a 10% margin.
MN- marriage ban passes 55%-45%.
WA- marriage equality passes legislature, upheld by voters 52%-48%. Anti-gays sue for endless recounts.
ME- marriage referendum passes by a handful of votes. Anti-gays sue for endless recounts.
NJ- marriage bill passes legislature, but fails to overcome the Govs veto.
MD- marriage bill passes legislature, but loses in the voter veto 55%-45%
NH- legislature votes to overturn marriage equality, but don't have the votes to overcome the Govs veto.
Now I'm on the record; we'll see how good my crystal ball is!
And the legislators in NH that vote to overturn marriage equality will do it with the full knowledge that it will be vetoed and the veto will stand, but it'll be more important for them to grandstand and pander to their handful of wealthy bigots than to represent the people that sent them there. With luck, they'll all be voted out and get their *own* message.

“WAY TO GO”

Since: Mar 11

IRELAND

#10 Jan 9, 2012
Interesting predication Sheeple.....but I do believe you are right on in NC, we might see a surprise in MN, but that's a mighty if might. I think we pick up Washington and Maine, we hold onto New Hampshire. We MIGHT again, that's a mighty might for Maryland and New Jersey.

Let the predication games begin......lol!!!

“Together for 24, legal for 5”

Since: Sep 07

Littleton, NH

#11 Jan 9, 2012
RnL2008 wrote:
Interesting predication Sheeple.....but I do believe you are right on in NC, we might see a surprise in MN, but that's a mighty if might. I think we pick up Washington and Maine, we hold onto New Hampshire. We MIGHT again, that's a mighty might for Maryland and New Jersey.
Let the predication games begin......lol!!!
'Tis the season. Happy New Year, Rose--and everyone else.
Larry Craig s Stance

Bethlehem, PA

#12 Jan 9, 2012
Great, but the homophobic minority is far more feral in its "stance" on the issue.

“WAY TO GO”

Since: Mar 11

IRELAND

#13 Jan 9, 2012
nhjeff wrote:
<quoted text>
'Tis the season. Happy New Year, Rose--and everyone else.
Yes,'Tis the season.......and a Happy New Year to you and yours as well:-)

“Headed toward the cliff”

Since: Nov 07

Tawas City, Michigan

#14 Jan 9, 2012
nhjeff wrote:
<quoted text>
That is exactly what I mean. An area that opposed civil unions by 2:1 seems more likely to strongly oppose marriage equality than the moderate opposition suggested by this pole.
Remember you're comparing actual votes from 2009- a non presidential, non congressional election with low voter turnout skewed to those over 65- with a poll 2 years later of randomly selected individuals.

Also, I think the Ref 71 vote would have been nearly identical had it be full marriage equality on the ballot. That's the way the anti-gays campaigned and I really think they maxed out their vote in '09.

One last point- the Puget Sound area has continued to grow in population since '09, while the eastern counties have not.

“Headed toward the cliff”

Since: Nov 07

Tawas City, Michigan

#15 Jan 9, 2012
RnL2008 wrote:
Interesting predication Sheeple.....but I do believe you are right on in NC, we might see a surprise in MN, but that's a mighty if might. I think we pick up Washington and Maine, we hold onto New Hampshire. We MIGHT again, that's a mighty might for Maryland and New Jersey.
Let the predication games begin......lol!!!
Thanks.

I just thought I'd throw that out there for fun. I'm going to print that out and save it so I can see how I did. Of course there are any number of monkey wrenches which could throw it all out the window.

Either way, I look forward to the battles ahead.

“WAY TO GO”

Since: Mar 11

IRELAND

#16 Jan 9, 2012
WeTheSheeple wrote:
<quoted text>
Thanks.
I just thought I'd throw that out there for fun. I'm going to print that out and save it so I can see how I did. Of course there are any number of monkey wrenches which could throw it all out the window.
Either way, I look forward to the battles ahead.
I agree and I see Santorum is now attacking kids who have Same-Sex Parents......if the guy would just STFU, he might have a chance, but every time he speaks......he reminds me of Charles Cooper for the proponents of Prop 8!!!

“Together for 24, legal for 5”

Since: Sep 07

Littleton, NH

#17 Jan 10, 2012
WeTheSheeple wrote:
Also, I think the Ref 71 vote would have been nearly identical had it be full marriage equality on the ballot. That's the way the anti-gays campaigned and I really think they maxed out their vote in '09.
Well, you know how often I've said that 90% of the people who vote against same-sex marriage also vote against civil unions. Which makes 80% of the people who say "I don't care as long as it isn't marriage" big fat liars.[I think most are lying to themselves as well as us.]

But that still leaves 10% who will support civil unions, but not marriage. And that roughly represents the difference between the losing margin in Maine and the winning margin in Washington in 2009. So I definitely believe there is a small but significant difference.

Basically, I see both states needing to close the same gap in order for marriage to win. I wasn't aware of the shift in demographics in Washington. The new residents are probably younger, too, which tilts the balance even more our way. I don't see any similar shifts in Maine.

But what I do see in Maine is that EQME has successfully infiltrated the rural hustings with its message. I'm not on the ground in Washington, but I'm afraid of relying on the city vote to overwhelm the rural vote. EQME claims they've gained supporters everywhere in the state. And I think that's important.

Maine also has a Republican governor who said he'd vote in favor of marriage equality if it's on the ballot. Now there's an anomaly!

“WAY TO GO”

Since: Mar 11

IRELAND

#18 Jan 10, 2012
nhjeff wrote:
<quoted text>
Well, you know how often I've said that 90% of the people who vote against same-sex marriage also vote against civil unions. Which makes 80% of the people who say "I don't care as long as it isn't marriage" big fat liars.[I think most are lying to themselves as well as us.]
But that still leaves 10% who will support civil unions, but not marriage. And that roughly represents the difference between the losing margin in Maine and the winning margin in Washington in 2009. So I definitely believe there is a small but significant difference.
Basically, I see both states needing to close the same gap in order for marriage to win. I wasn't aware of the shift in demographics in Washington. The new residents are probably younger, too, which tilts the balance even more our way. I don't see any similar shifts in Maine.
But what I do see in Maine is that EQME has successfully infiltrated the rural hustings with its message. I'm not on the ground in Washington, but I'm afraid of relying on the city vote to overwhelm the rural vote. EQME claims they've gained supporters everywhere in the state. And I think that's important.
Maine also has a Republican governor who said he'd vote in favor of marriage equality if it's on the ballot. Now there's an anomaly!
I believe that if we can pick up Maine, Maryland and New Jersey.....keep New Hampshire on the East Coast.....then pick up Washington and regain California on the West Coast......that we can eventually gain the mid-west in approximately 5 years, with the South kicking and screaming in probably the next 15 to 20 years......but again, just throwing in my 2 cents.

“Headed toward the cliff”

Since: Nov 07

Tawas City, Michigan

#19 Jan 10, 2012
nhjeff wrote:
<quoted text>
Well, you know how often I've said that 90% of the people who vote against same-sex marriage also vote against civil unions. Which makes 80% of the people who say "I don't care as long as it isn't marriage" big fat liars.[I think most are lying to themselves as well as us.]
But that still leaves 10% who will support civil unions, but not marriage. And that roughly represents the difference between the losing margin in Maine and the winning margin in Washington in 2009. So I definitely believe there is a small but significant difference.
Basically, I see both states needing to close the same gap in order for marriage to win. I wasn't aware of the shift in demographics in Washington. The new residents are probably younger, too, which tilts the balance even more our way. I don't see any similar shifts in Maine.
But what I do see in Maine is that EQME has successfully infiltrated the rural hustings with its message. I'm not on the ground in Washington, but I'm afraid of relying on the city vote to overwhelm the rural vote. EQME claims they've gained supporters everywhere in the state. And I think that's important.
Maine also has a Republican governor who said he'd vote in favor of marriage equality if it's on the ballot. Now there's an anomaly!
I hadn't heard that about the Maine Governor; that is indeed good news.

FYI, the counties which approved Ref 71 contains 4 million residents, compared to 2.5 million in the counties opposed. So we can indeed overwhelm the rural counties with the Puget Sound area vote. Of course everything will depend on turnout, which should be very high with Obama on the ticket in 2012.

Not suprisingly in 2008 Obama won all the counties that approved Ref 71, while McCain won all the counties which opposed Ref 71. The end result- Obama 60%- McCain 40%

So I'm very confident we can win with just the Puget Sound vote; in fact, we're going to have to.

“Headed toward the cliff”

Since: Nov 07

Tawas City, Michigan

#20 Jan 10, 2012
RnL2008 wrote:
<quoted text>
I believe that if we can pick up Maine, Maryland and New Jersey.....keep New Hampshire on the East Coast.....then pick up Washington and regain California on the West Coast......that we can eventually gain the mid-west in approximately 5 years, with the South kicking and screaming in probably the next 15 to 20 years......but again, just throwing in my 2 cents.
I'd mostly agree. Washington, Maine, California, New Jersey, Maryland, Hawaii, Oregon, & Rhode Island all in the next 5 years, with Illinois thrown in for good measure.

Even with the changing demographics, I don't see ANY southern states passing marriage equality in the next 20 years; the anti-gay sentiment is just so ingrained in their culture. They will have to be forced by the SCOTUS to recognize the marriages of same-sex couples performed elsewhere. Even then, I'm not sure I see the SCOTUS forcing them to actually marry same-sex couples.

That's my 3 cents.

Tell me when this thread is updated:

Subscribe Now Add to my Tracker
First Prev
of 2
Next Last

Add your comments below

Characters left: 4000

Please note by submitting this form you acknowledge that you have read the Terms of Service and the comment you are posting is in compliance with such terms. Be polite. Inappropriate posts may be removed by the moderator. Send us your feedback.

University of Washington Discussions

Title Updated Last By Comments
News Blob of warm Pacific water threatens ecosystem,... Apr '15 H20 the new Oil 1
News Jenny McCarthy: New Study Shows No Link Between... Apr '15 VACCINES CAUSE AU... 1
News Blob to blame for weird winter weather, scienti... Apr '15 DILF 7
News Bubbles from glacier ice turn up the noise in A... Mar '15 Hal 1
News A Half-Century of Conflict Over Attempts to 'Cu... Feb '15 cpeter1313 21
News UW Provost Ana Mari Cauce will be interim presi... Feb '15 Leonardo 1
News Doctors' assumptions on sex heighten lesbians' ... Feb '15 NOM s Waffle House 14
More from around the web