Scientist link hurricanes, global war...

Scientist link hurricanes, global warming

There are 4 comments on the The Southern Digest story from Oct 17, 2010, titled Scientist link hurricanes, global warming. In it, The Southern Digest reports that:

"Enhanced" greenhouse effects caused by human activities such as emissions from factories and plants contribute to climate changes that have produced major hurricanes like Katrina.

Join the discussion below, or Read more at The Southern Digest.

LessHypeMoreFact

Nepean, Canada

#1 Oct 17, 2010
Something of a mixed bag. Too much bullshit from Landsea and denialist blogs such as:

"Dr. Robert C. Ballings states that although the climate has warmed slightly in the last 100 years, 70 percent of warming occurred prior to 1940"

Not completely untrue but misleading. The early warming was from the upswing in the 200 year solar cycle at a time when the accumulation of GHGs was feeble. But the rate of warming has increased exponentially as more and more GHGs accumulate and the CURRENT warming is almost all from GHGs as the 200 year solar cycle goes into an 'ebb'.
Misdirection based on denial of the fact that THREE factors have been linked to warming in the last century, Aerosols, Solar and GHGs.

" Globalwarming.org reports' claim 98 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions are natural"

Again, deliberate misdirection. There is a constant 'flow' of CO2 from 'sinks' to the atmoshere. A large flux going both ways in relative balance and thus not adding anything to atmsophere levels. Essentially a meaningless number relative to the INCREASE in atmsophere CO2 caused by fossil fuel emissions. The main effect of the 'natural flux' has been to sequester about 60% of the 'fossil fuel emissions' into natural sinks so the NET flow of the 'natural' system is out of the atmosphere. The INCREASE in the atmsophere is purely due to fossil fuels.

"Things have warmed up in the last 100 years and a portion of that is because of greenhouse gases," he said. "But as far as science can tell, the effect is so small that we can't measure it well."

The 'well' is a dig at the science. You can always say that it isn't measured 'perfectly' but fact is that this is total crap. The temperature increase and links to GHG buildup are very well defined by science. THe 'signal to noise' ratio is high enough to inspire 97% of all climate scientists to agree.

Southern University Political Science professor Lionel Lyles says "Many scientists know about global warming, but the judgment politically is to deny it and attribute what's going on to a long term weather cycle."

True. As can be seen in the article. The rock on which this falters is the fact that you cannot just 'invent' the energy that causes the warmer oceans or attribute it to 'magic'. And we have clear evidence of lower radiation emissions from the earth relative to the influx from the sun, clearly showing an accumlation of solar energy (from the greenhouse effect) so the fact don't allow for 'magical natural changes' either.

As to hurricanes. When they occur, if the water is warmer, the hurricanes will be stronger. So

"Lyles, who has been involved with global warming research for over ten years, said that you would usually expect Category 5 storms once every ten years within a "normal" weather cycle. Now every three to five years we're getting as many as three to five Category 4 and 5 hurricanes due to increases in sea surface temperatures."

is quite the last word in the current understanding.
Earthling

Valencia, Spain

#2 Oct 17, 2010
Hurricanes and the LIA:
"The climatic controls are similar to those in the Caribbean, with a summer rainfall season associated with the northerly shift of the ITCZ and an increased
moisture supply from the trade winds, and with late summer and early autumn precipitation related with tropical storms and hurricanes. Orographic uplifting of polar air outbreaks produces winter precipitation (10% of a total annual mean of 2,500 mm) along with a temperature reduction of 10°C (16)."
http://www.pnas.org/content/104/41/16200.full...
Earthling

Valencia, Spain

#3 Oct 17, 2010
ABSTRACT:
"The processes that control the formation, intensity and track of hurricanes are poorly understood. It has been proposed that an increase in sea surface temperatures caused by anthropogenic climate change has led to an increase in the frequency of intense tropical cyclones, but this proposal has been challenged on the basis that the instrumental record is too short and unreliable to reveal trends in intense tropical cyclone activity. Storm-induced deposits preserved in the sediments of coastal lagoons offer the opportunity to study the links between climatic conditions and hurricane activity on longer timescales, because they provide centennial- to millennial-scale records of past hurricane landfalls. Here we present a record of intense hurricane activity in the western North Atlantic Ocean over the past 5,000 years based on sediment cores from a Caribbean lagoon that contain coarse-grained deposits associated with intense hurricane landfalls. The record indicates that the frequency of intense hurricane landfalls has varied on centennial to millennial scales over this interval. Comparison of the sediment record with palaeo-climate records indicates that this variability was probably modulated by atmospheric dynamics associated with variations in the El Niņo/Southern Oscillation and the strength of the West African monsoon, and suggests that sea surface temperatures as high as at present are not necessary to support intervals of frequent intense hurricanes. To accurately predict changes in intense hurricane activity, it is therefore important to understand how the El Niņo/Southern Oscillation and the West African monsoon will respond to future climate change."
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/pubs/donnelly2...
Anonymous

Louisville, KY

#4 Oct 17, 2010
check your facts ooooo thats right they are not there

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