Global warming "pause" may last for 2...

Global warming "pause" may last for 20 more years

There are 52 comments on the Hot Air story from Nov 5, 2013, titled Global warming "pause" may last for 20 more years. In it, Hot Air reports that:

Even though the "consensus" described in the IPCC report says it won't. Gee, who to believe - the IPCC who has been badly off the mark since it began reporting or other scientists who actually research the climate, like Prof.

Join the discussion below, or Read more at Hot Air.

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Fun Facts

Huntsville, AL

#1 Nov 6, 2013
'Just watch'

Since: Apr 08

"the green troll"

#2 Nov 6, 2013
NASA released global temperature data showing that this September tied with 2005 for the warmest September on record. That’s doubly impressive since 2005 was warmed by an El Niño and accompanying warm Pacific ocean temperatures, whereas 2013 has had cooler Pacific temperatures all year.
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/11/03/2...

The "pause" may last 2 more years- until the next El Nino.
LessHypeMoreFact

Orleans, Canada

#3 Nov 6, 2013
There is no pause in AGW and air temperature will follow AGW as well as short term cycles such as ENSO which modify how much ocean energy gets moved into the air mass.

I expect a few more years of cooler air temps from the 2012 La-Nina, but it is unlikely that their will be a THIRD La-Nina to keep temperatures low beyond two years or so. Anything is POSSIBLE, but what basis is there for long term La-Nina cycles? None.

and even if it did turn into a long term La-Nina series, the warming of the oceans would eventually establish the same warming trend (with a step down for La-Nina).

Much ado about nothing..
Fun Facts

Huntsville, AL

#4 Nov 7, 2013
http://theresilientearth.com/files/images/ens...

Note the last time the PDO was negative we had more frequent and more impactful La Ninas and we experienced fewer less impactful El Ninos.

Then the PDO switched to the positive phase in 1976/77 and the reverse occurred.

Now the PDO is negative, so the La Ninas will rules until the PDO switches to positive again. That should happen in the next 20 to 25 years.
Fun Facts

Huntsville, AL

#5 Nov 7, 2013
Fair Game wrote:
<quoted text>
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/11/03/2...
The "pause" may last 2 more years- until the next El Nino.
"[1] Arctic air temperatures have increased in recent decades, along with documented reductions in sea ice, glacier size, and snow cover. However, the extent to which recent Arctic warming has been anomalous with respect to long-term natural climate variability remains uncertain"
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/20...

They must have gone back to the Eemian if they are quoting 120,000 years. If so, how is it that the current arctic is as warm as 44,000 years ago when that time period was in the middle of the last glacial period.

Not saying they're wrong. Just asking what caused such high temperatures in the arctic 44,000 years ago. That could be a very useful piece of information to understand our current conditions.

http://oceanservice.noaa.gov/education/pd/tid...

Since: Apr 08

"the green troll"

#6 Nov 7, 2013
Fun Facts wrote:
<quoted text>
"[1] Arctic air temperatures have increased in recent decades, along with documented reductions in sea ice, glacier size, and snow cover. However, the extent to which recent Arctic warming has been anomalous with respect to long-term natural climate variability remains uncertain"
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/20...
They must have gone back to the Eemian if they are quoting 120,000 years. If so, how is it that the current arctic is as warm as 44,000 years ago when that time period was in the middle of the last glacial period.
Not saying they're wrong. Just asking what caused such high temperatures in the arctic 44,000 years ago. That could be a very useful piece of information to understand our current conditions.
http://oceanservice.noaa.gov/education/pd/tid...
That's only as far back as reliable dating goes, clueless one.

http://www.colorado.edu/news/releases/2013/10...
SpaceBlues

Magnolia, TX

#7 Nov 7, 2013
Every fall, thousands of polar bears gather on the southwest banks of Hudson Bay, in Canada, to wait for sea ice to form so they can hunt.

Normally, only a handful of biologists, climate scientists and tourists get to see the world's southernmost population of polar bears. But now, thanks to the philanthropic media organization Explore.org , anyone with an Internet connection can watch the animals in live, high-definition video.

Polar bears depend on sea ice in order to catch seals, their main source of food. In Hudson Bay, the ice melts completely during the summer, and re-forms in October or November. But due to climate change, the ice is forming later and melting earlier each year, threatening the existence of these iconic, majestic animals.[Gallery: Polar Bears Swimming in the Arctic Ocean]

"Studies suggest they're losing nearly 2 lbs.[1 kilogram] a day while on land," said Steven Amstrup, chief scientist for the conservation group Polar Bears International, "and they aren’t dieting intentionally."

Amstrup, who has studied polar bears in Alaska for the past 30 years, said the bears have been forced to stay on land about one day longer each year. Because of annual variation in the climate, however, scientists don't know exactly how long the Hudson Bay bears will have to wait for ice to form this year. For the next few weeks, Amstrup and his team are at Hudson Bay, observing the bears from all-terrain vehicles called Tundra Buggies.

Most of the time, the bears are just loafing around and resting. Because they're not hunting, they must conserve energy. However, some of the young male bears will play-fight with each other. The sparring behavior allows bears to assess each other's physical strength at a time when they aren't competing for food or prospective mates, Amstrup told LiveScience.

But as earlier ice melts drive the bears ashore earlier, when they've had less time to hunt and bulk up, "we will probably see less and less sparring behavior," Amstrup said. "Here in Hudson Bay, we've seen declines in the weight of the bears," he said, adding that leaner females produce fewer, smaller cubs, which don't survive as well.

Viewers might catch a glimpse of mothers with their cubs. But what they won't see are pregnant mothers, which have all moved inland to den, said wildlife biologist Tom Smith of Brigham Young University in Provo, Utah. The mother bears have their cubs in January, and emerge from their dens in March.

Though not at aggressive as grizzly bears, polar bears do kill each other from time to time. "The single most consistent threat to cubs is other bears," Smith told LiveScience. Bigger bears might kill the cubs because getting rid of them will bring a mother bear back into heat, making her fertile again, Smith said. Or they might simply kill the cubs for food.

"Cannibalism in bears is documented many times and many places," Smith said, adding, "It's definitely not the Disney version of things."

Still, the risk of a reprisal from a bear fighting back does deter them from attacking. And in general, they are fairly social animals, Smith said.

The webcams were initially developed to attract public interest in the bears. Users can also take snapshots from the video and share them using social media. Now, scientists are discussing the potential for citizen science. For instance, snapshots could be used to track the bears' weight over time, Amstrup said.

Ultimately, the webcam's most important value is "to get people's attention focused on the plight of the polar bears," Amstrup said. "They're emblematic of the future we all face, if we don't take action against climate change."
Cordwainer Trout

Lexington, KY

#8 Nov 7, 2013
Challenging “save the polar bear” propaganda.
http://polarbearscience.com/2013/11/05/challe...

Update Nov. 5, 2013, 5:06 PM Pacific time:
Video from The Guardian:“Polar bears fight for survival as sea ice melts”– http://t.co/GCg7p06Efe You might notice, if you look, that there are no starving polar bears in this video – see for yourself! I wonder where they all are, all the starving polar bears?
SpaceBlues

Magnolia, TX

#9 Nov 7, 2013
Cordwainer Trout wrote:
Challenging “save the polar bear” propaganda.
http://polarbearscience.com/2013/11/05/challe...
Update Nov. 5, 2013, 5:06 PM Pacific time:
Video from The Guardian:“Polar bears fight for survival as sea ice melts”– http://t.co/GCg7p06Efe You might notice, if you look, that there are no starving polar bears in this video – see for yourself! I wonder where they all are, all the starving polar bears?
Are you losing weight, container trout?
SpaceBlues

Houston, TX

#10 Nov 7, 2013
From nature.com :

Tipping points

Of course, to establish whether a candidate signal is outside the normal range, researchers need to know how the ecosystem, fault line, lake or whatever it is behaves under 'normal' circumstances. Yet controls or replicates are rarely available for natural systems.

One option is to compare the current properties of a system with historical or 'baseline' data. For such baselines to be effective, vast amounts of data must have been collected well before the system nears the tipping point.

Such an approach needs exploring; we don't yet know whether it will even be possible to obtain baseline data for many complex systems. And for ecological systems, comparisons will often be confounded by undocumented changes in data-collection procedures, a switch in management practice or a shift in environmental conditions.

Another way around the lack of controls and replicates, and one that has received less attention, is to model (rather than measure) the expected behaviour of the stable system10. In this scenario, various data, including, say, real recordings of the density of invertebrates in a lake, could be fed into a model. In one simulation, a certain parameter, such as the number of predators, would be kept constant; in the other, it would be steadily increased to destabilize the food chain. By comparing various properties of the two systems, modellers could then establish the predictive power of candidate early warning signals.

Both theoretical3 and experimental4, 5 approaches have shown that measurable signs of impending transitions do exist1. The challenge now is to resist the seductive but elusive concept of 'generic' warning signals, and focus instead on making predictions about real systems using readily available, or easily collectable, data.
Fun Facts

Huntsville, AL

#11 Nov 8, 2013
Fair Game wrote:
<quoted text>
That's only as far back as reliable dating goes, clueless one.
http://www.colorado.edu/news/releases/2013/10...
From the article

Age from 1275 to about 1900.

“Although the Arctic has been warming since about 1900, the most significant warming in the Baffin Island region didn’t really start until the 1970s,” said Miller.“And it is really in the past 20 years that the warming signal from that region has been just stunning. All of Baffin Island is melting, and we expect all of the ice caps to eventually disappear, even if there is no additional warming.”
- See more at: http://www.colorado.edu/news/releases/2013/10...

Sounds right. Solar energy was in the top 10% of all activity of the holocene during the same time period as the article states the arctic warm up has been.
SpaceBlues

United States

#12 Nov 8, 2013
Fun Facts wrote:
<quoted text>
From the article
Age from 1275 to about 1900.
“Although the Arctic has been warming since about 1900, the most significant warming in the Baffin Island region didn’t really start until the 1970s,” said Miller.“And it is really in the past 20 years that the warming signal from that region has been just stunning. All of Baffin Island is melting, and we expect all of the ice caps to eventually disappear, even if there is no additional warming.”
- See more at: http://www.colorado.edu/news/releases/2013/10...
Sounds right. Solar energy was in the top 10% of all activity of the holocene during the same time period as the article states the arctic warm up has been.
No.

“The key piece here is just how unprecedented the warming of Arctic Canada is,” said Miller, also a fellow at CU-Boulder’s Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research.“This study really says the warming we are seeing is outside any kind of known natural variability, and it has to be due to increased greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.”- See more at: http://www.colorado.edu/news/releases/2013/10...
SpaceBlues

United States

#13 Nov 8, 2013
It is shown above how ff never learns but stays stuck to its denial of science.
litesong

Everett, WA

#14 Nov 8, 2013
fun farts wrote:
Sounds right. Solar energy was in the top 10% of all activity of the holocene during the same time period as the article states the arctic warm up has been.
fun farts continually farts non-science because it has no science or mathematics degrees & no science, chemistry, astronomy, physics, algebra or pre-calc in its poorly (or non-) earned hi skule DEE-plooomaa.

http://www.examiner.com/article/sun-may-produ...
Cordwainer Trout

Campbellsville, KY

#15 Nov 8, 2013
Global Sea Ice Area Seventh Highest On Record For The Date (11/4)– Closing In On The All Time Record
https://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2013/11/0...

No Warming In Alaska Since 1979
https://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2013/11/0...
Cordwainer Trout

Campbellsville, KY

#16 Nov 8, 2013
Geologist Dr. Don Easterbrook does take down of new study claiming ‘Unprecedented Recent Summer Warmth in Arctic Canada’—‘Bad assumptions, poor logic, and contrary to other evidence of Arctic temperatures’

Easterbrook:'The Miller et al. paper is so badly flawed with unwarranted assumptions, poorly thought out assertions, and astonishingly bad logic that their conclusion “temperatures of the past century must have exceeded those of any century in more than 44 ka” cannot be considered valid...Even if the conclusions in the paper were correct, they wouldn’t prove anything about CO2 as the cause of climatic warming....the real purpose of the paper was to push CO2 at the expense of objective science'

Geologist Dr. Don J. Easterbrook, Emeritus Professor at Western Washington University, a UN IPCC expert reviewer, has authored ten books and 150 journal publications. Presented 31 research papers at international meetings in 13 countries outside the US.
Cordwainer Trout

Campbellsville, KY

#17 Nov 8, 2013
LessHypeMoreFact

Orleans, Canada

#18 Nov 8, 2013
Well, Mr. Fish has given us all the references from industry funded whacked out junk science sites. Now if we could see what the science says..

http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/n_p...
Hmm. Nope. The arctic has had a bit of a high point from the exteme low of 2012, but the variation is well within the trend noise.

http://nsidc.org/cryosphere/seaice/images//gs...

And antarctic summer sea ice shows no significant growth either (though there may be a slight increase in WINTER ice coverage). That is, permanent ice cover is not increasing.
Cordwainer Trout

Elizabethtown, KY

#19 Nov 8, 2013
New review paper finds temperature history of Antarctica argues strongly against AGW
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2013/10/new...

The Real Hockey Stick
https://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2013/11/0...
Cordwainer Trout

Elizabethtown, KY

#20 Nov 8, 2013
Mutually Assured Delusion (MAD)
http://judithcurry.com/2013/11/05/mutually-as...

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