Once slow-moving threat, global warmi...

Once slow-moving threat, global warming speeds up, leaving litt...

There are 61517 comments on the Newsday story from Dec 14, 2008, titled Once slow-moving threat, global warming speeds up, leaving litt.... In it, Newsday reports that:

When Bill Clinton took office in 1993, global warming was a slow-moving environmental problem that was easy to ignore.

Join the discussion below, or Read more at Newsday.

Since: Apr 08

"the green troll"

#39305 Sep 17, 2013
kristy wrote:
<quoted text>
Again, another pivot....of course I got the information from somewhere. Did you think I just made it up and I did link the Telegraph article with my original post. But I guess when you can't defend the prediction, you have to attack the messenger.
The prediction is for 2014, so it hasn't failed yet.
kristy

New Smyrna Beach, FL

#39306 Sep 17, 2013
Fair Game wrote:
<quoted text>
The prediction is for 2014, so it hasn't failed yet.
Well ok, that means 2014 will have to be 0.73, as 2004 was 0.43 above the average according to Hadcrut3. The warmest year has been 0.52 above the average.

But you keep believing, because the Met Office doesn’t have any confidence in the prediction that they originally had placed high confidence in. They have already changed that prediction 2 times:

The new 2011 prediction: Global average temperature is expected to rise to between 0.36 °C and 0.72 °C (90% confidence range) above the long-term (1971-2000) average during the period 2012-2016, with values most likely to be about 0.54 °C higher than average.

http://web-beta.archive.org/web/2012020609390...

The new 2013 prediction: Global average temperature is expected to remain between 0.28 °C and 0.59 °C (90% confidence range) above the long-term (1971-2000) average during the period 2013-2017, with values most likely to be about 0.43 °C higher than average.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/...
SpaceBlues

United States

#39307 Sep 17, 2013
Fair Game wrote:
<quoted text>
The prediction is for 2014, so it hasn't failed yet.
The deniers promote lies unencumbered by science facts.

They are already misrepresenting the unreleased IPCC report, LOL.

Since: Apr 08

"the green troll"

#39308 Sep 17, 2013
kristy wrote:
<quoted text>
Well ok, that means 2014 will have to be 0.73, as 2004 was 0.43 above the average according to Hadcrut3. The warmest year has been 0.52 above the average.
But you keep believing, because the Met Office doesn’t have any confidence in the prediction that they originally had placed high confidence in. They have already changed that prediction 2 times:
The new 2011 prediction: Global average temperature is expected to rise to between 0.36 °C and 0.72 °C (90% confidence range) above the long-term (1971-2000) average during the period 2012-2016, with values most likely to be about 0.54 °C higher than average.
http://web-beta.archive.org/web/2012020609390...
The new 2013 prediction: Global average temperature is expected to remain between 0.28 °C and 0.59 °C (90% confidence range) above the long-term (1971-2000) average during the period 2013-2017, with values most likely to be about 0.43 °C higher than average.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/...
The latest decadal prediction suggests that global temperatures over the next five years are likely to be a little lower than predicted from the previous prediction issued in December 2011.

However, both versions are consistent in predicting that we will continue to see near-record levels of global temperatures in the next few years.

This means temperatures will remain well above the long-term average and we will continue to see temperatures like those which resulted in 2000-2009 being the warmest decade in the instrumental record dating back to 1850.

Decadal predictions are specifically designed to predict fluctuations in the climate system through knowledge of the current climate state and multi-year variability of the oceans.

Small year to year fluctuations such as those that we are seeing in the shorter term five year predictions are expected due to natural variability in the climate system, and have no sustained impact on the long term warming.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/arc...

Since: Apr 08

"the green troll"

#39309 Sep 17, 2013
The Met Office stresses that the work is experimental.

It says it still stands by its longer-term projections that forecast significant warming over the course of this century.

....

A Met Office spokesman said "this definitely doesn't mean any cooling - there's still a long-term trend of warming compared to the 50s, 60s or 70s.

"Our forecast is still for temperatures that will be close to the record levels of the past few years.

"And because the natural variability is based on cycles, those factors are bound to change the other way at some point."

......

A paper published last month in the journal Climate Dynamics, authored by scientists from the Met Office and 12 other international research centres, combined different models to produce a forecast for the next decade.

It said: "Decadal climate prediction is immature, and uncertainties in future forcings, model responses to forcings, or initialisation shocks could easily cause large errors in forecasts."

However the paper concluded that, "in the absence of volcanic eruptions, global temperature is predicted to continue to rise, with each year from 2013 onwards having a 50 % chance of exceeding the current observed record".

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment...

“Happy, warm and comfortable”

Since: Oct 10

Mountain retreat, SE Spain

#39310 Sep 17, 2013
FuGyou wrote:
Every major projection of future warming makes clear that ... taking no serious action ... we face catastrophic 9°F to 11°F [5°C to 6°C] warming over most of the U.S.
I don't live in the US and neither do you, so what about the rest of the world?
FuGyou wrote:
... high temperature rise, especially over land — some 10°F over much of the United States
In two sentences, the temperature has risen 1º F?
FuGyou wrote:
Sea level rise of some 1 foot by 2050, then 4 to 6 feet (or more) by 2100, rising some 6 to 12 inches (or more) each decade thereafter
ROFLMAO.
There's enough ice to raise sea level by a lot, but not enough to cause that melt rate.
FuGyou wrote:
Massive species loss on land and sea — perhaps 50% or more of all biodiversity.
Unexpected impacts — the fearsome “unknown unknowns”
Much more extreme weather
Food insecurity — the increasing difficulty of feeding 7 billion, then 8 billion, and then 9 billion people in a world with an ever-worsening climate.
Myriad direct health impacts
http://thinkprogress.org
Sounds like it's time to do the world the best favour you can and top yourself, you obviously have nothing left to live for.
LessHypeMoreFact

Etobicoke, Canada

#39311 Sep 17, 2013
Fair Game wrote:
<quoted text>
This is the key, isn't it: doubt?
Not just doubt but MANUFACTURED doubt. Based on faulty logic, misleading statements, etc. Basically propaganda and demagoguery.
Fair Game wrote:
<quoted text>
It didn't stop all the world's scientific academies from saying that we need to do something about global warming.
Because they are capable of assessing doubt, and they find it no reason for inaction.
Manufactured doubt cannot hold the educated scientist. They see through the scams and have a basis for making their own evaluations. Nobody can fake them out. Well, except for a few wacko's prominently and repeatedly displayed by the denialists. What they lose in credibility they make up for with quantity.

Since: Apr 08

"the green troll"

#39312 Sep 17, 2013
Earthling-1 wrote:
There's enough ice to raise sea level by a lot, but not enough to cause that melt rate.
Science is not your strong point, is it?

Since: Apr 08

"the green troll"

#39313 Sep 17, 2013
Examining elevated fossil beaches and coral reefs along more than a thousand miles of coast, Dr. O’Leary’s group confirmed something we pretty much already knew. In the warmer world of the Eemian, sea level stabilized for several thousand years at about 10 to 12 feet above modern sea level.

The interesting part is what happened after that. Dr. O’Leary’s group found what they consider to be compelling evidence that near the end of the Eemian, sea level jumped by another 17 feet or so, to settle at close to 30 feet above the modern level, before beginning to fall as the ice age set in.

In an interview, Dr. O’Leary told me he was confident that the 17-foot jump happened in less than a thousand years — how much less, he cannot be sure.

.....

... if sea level is capable of rising several feet per century, as Dr. O’Leary’s paper would seem to imply and as many other scientists believe, then babies being born now could live to see the early stages of a global calamity.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/13/science/tim... ;

“BET DAP”

Since: Feb 09

GOOM BOWN

#39314 Sep 17, 2013
kristy wrote:
<quoted text>
All of these predictions are made with climate models that can't even predict 6 years into the future.
Based on the track record of climate models I'm a little worried now that my grandchildren will be living in an Ice Age.

Since: Jul 11

Location hidden

#39315 Sep 17, 2013
kristy wrote:
<quoted text>
Oh, so now we can ignore all those people screaming global warming every time there is a flood, drought, hurricane or tornado? Thank God.
Yeah turn on the news, unless of course if you only watch Fox which just shows news from the US and whatever international news they can bash Obama with. But other news services will show these flash floods occurring everywhere with a lot more frequency than once in a 100 year chance. So what is causing this increase (factual), well the Gods must be getting angry, so why are you thankful?

http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2013/9/...
gcaveman1

Bay Springs, MS

#39316 Sep 17, 2013
SpaceBlues wrote:
<quoted text>Hey the DENSE one, why don't you get it? It is the CO2!
The global warming is one symptom of the CO2 malady..
global climate change
sea-level rise
ocean acidification
species extinctions
increased malaria and other diseases
food shortages
habitat destruction
civil unrest a la Arab Spring
resource wars
floods
droughts
climate refuges
..
global warming deniers
coal company shills
oil empire cheerleaders
climate science morons
gcaveman1

Bay Springs, MS

#39317 Sep 17, 2013
ritedownthemiddle wrote:
<quoted text>apparently you're still missing the important stuff, son!!
Lol
No... I didn't see where they stood in the debate. WHICH IS MY POINT!!!!
A small percentage of the 12000..... The questionnaire was vague in its line of questions....then Cook "cooked the books" with his dishonest math and generalities.
Truth is they lied about the percentages and the actual answers in what the repondents multiple choice answers were all about.
Cook is dishonest....and so are you. Or, you're just plain ole dumb.
What can I say? You obviously can't read.

It's always these crooked scientists. But not everybody is like you, boy. Dishonest and dumb.

And this ain't the first study to show that the scientific consensus on global warming is in the 90th+ percentile.
gcaveman1

Bay Springs, MS

#39318 Sep 17, 2013
kristy wrote:
<quoted text>
Looks like Munich Re has been playing around with their graphs. Take at look at this graph showing weather events from 1950 to 2009. Notice how the decade of the 1990s is greater than the decade of 2000s.
http://350orbust.com/2010/03/01/icebergs-ice-...
But now their new graph shows the decade of the 1990s with less weather events than the decade of 2000s.
http://tamino.wordpress.com/2012/11/03/catast...
You idiot, learn to read.

The first chart shows the number of catastrophic weather events.

The second chart shows the number of Category 5 storms.

Two different things; no one has been playing with the charts. You're just too stupid to understand them!
Mothra

United States

#39319 Sep 17, 2013
Earthling-1 wrote:
<quoted text>You know that for a fact, how, exactly?
Crystal ball?
Ouija board?
Guesswork?
Scientific evidence?
Do you have an approximate date for this catastrophe?
I suppose you realise that you are a loser, don't you, Fuggy?
The 'certainty' of the warmists can be found on a Magic 8-Ball:

Indications are positive.
Mothra

United States

#39320 Sep 17, 2013
kristy wrote:
<quoted text>
All of these predictions are made with climate models that can't even predict 6 years into the future.
Another motto of the warmists:

All our predictions are predicate on the next.
kristy

New Smyrna Beach, FL

#39321 Sep 17, 2013
gcaveman1 wrote:
<quoted text>
You idiot, learn to read.
The first chart shows the number of catastrophic weather events.
The second chart shows the number of Category 5 storms.
Two different things; no one has been playing with the charts. You're just too stupid to understand them!
No idiot. You are comparing the wrong charts. Compare the 2 charts that have the same heading:

GREAT WEATHER CATASTROPHES: The ones that have 3 colors to each bar with the legend that states: Meteorological events, hydrological events, and climatological events. The first one is on the 350.org website and then you compare it to the chart on the Tamino website. So you are just too stupid to understand what charts to compare. Why do you think I listed 2 different sites?

http://350orbust.com/2010/03/01/icebergs-ice-...

http://tamino.wordpress.com/2012/11/03/catast...
Mothra

United States

#39322 Sep 17, 2013
Fair Game wrote:
The Met Office stresses that the work is experimental.
It says it still stands by its longer-term projections that forecast significant warming over the course of this century.
....
A Met Office spokesman said "this definitely doesn't mean any cooling - there's still a long-term trend of warming compared to the 50s, 60s or 70s.
"Our forecast is still for temperatures that will be close to the record levels of the past few years.
"And because the natural variability is based on cycles, those factors are bound to change the other way at some point."
......
A paper published last month in the journal Climate Dynamics, authored by scientists from the Met Office and 12 other international research centres, combined different models to produce a forecast for the next decade.
It said: "Decadal climate prediction is immature, and uncertainties in future forcings, model responses to forcings, or initialisation shocks could easily cause large errors in forecasts."
However the paper concluded that, "in the absence of volcanic eruptions, global temperature is predicted to continue to rise, with each year from 2013 onwards having a 50 % chance of exceeding the current observed record".
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment...
"Decadal climate prediction is immature, and uncertainties in future forcings, model responses to forcings, or initialisation shocks could easily cause large errors in forecasts."

Translation: We can't get the short term right, but we're positive about the long term. Keep sending the checks.

A warmist,'Get out of jail free' card.

LOL
gcaveman1

Bay Springs, MS

#39323 Sep 17, 2013
kristy wrote:
<quoted text>
Looks like Munich Re has been playing around with their graphs. Take at look at this graph showing weather events from 1950 to 2009. Notice how the decade of the 1990s is greater than the decade of 2000s.
http://350orbust.com/2010/03/01/icebergs-ice-...
But now their new graph shows the decade of the 1990s with less weather events than the decade of 2000s.
http://tamino.wordpress.com/2012/11/03/catast...
No, excuse me, one chart covers 1950-2009. The other covers 1980-2011.

I guess the bars did move. That's because the time span moved.
Mothra

United States

#39324 Sep 17, 2013
OzRitz wrote:
<quoted text>
Yeah turn on the news, unless of course if you only watch Fox which just shows news from the US and whatever international news they can bash Obama with. But other news services will show these flash floods occurring everywhere with a lot more frequency than once in a 100 year chance. So what is causing this increase (factual), well the Gods must be getting angry, so why are you thankful?
http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2013/9/...
"But other news services will show these flash floods occurring everywhere with a lot more frequency than once in a 100 year chance."

Ooo... a dire prediction.

Tell me, what's at stake if you're wrong?

Nothing.

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