Sept. 14, 2000 -- Why Bush Is Toast
Posted in the Warsaw Forum
#1 Sep 10, 2012
From Slate, about 6 weeks before the 2000 presidential election (Bush vs Gore)
"Since Labor Day, the media have released about 20 polls on the presidential race. Three show a dead heat, one shows George W. Bush leading by a single percentage point, and the rest show Al Gore leading by one to 10 points.
In the latest polls, Gore leads by an average of five points. It's fashionable at this stage to caution that "anything can happen," that Bush is "retooling," and that the numbers can turn in Bush's favor just as easily as they turned against him.
But they can't. The numbers are moving toward Gore because fundamental dynamics tilt the... blah, blah, blah
In a presidential election year the media will always tilt towards the democrat candidate. Most of the polls will reflect that bias.
They had Carter ahead of Reagan by as much as 11 percent about a week before the vote -- yet Reagan won in a landslide -- taking everything but Massachussetts and the district of Columbia.
As you can see from reading above the liberal press had Algore winning in 2000, too.
Inspite of Al and the media's best effort, the votes were counted and G W Bush won, but the Dems demanded and got a recount, and G W Bush won a second time, The dems decided to count yet again (to steal a few more votes).
A few million votes later, amid dimpled chads, and dangling chads, and looking at ballots to determine "the voter's intent", the supreme court stepped in, stopped the counting, and for the third time, decared George W Bush the winner.
You can usually take away at least 10 points from the perceived democrat advantage and you will be close to the actual election outcome.
So unless barack Obama is ahead by 12 to 15 points in most of the polls in the days just before the election -- he will lose.
#2 Sep 29, 2012
Mitt Romney in race of his Life,
All Polls Have Him Behind
Reap What You Sow.
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