Isle housing bottom seen - Business

The worst could be over for Oahu's slumping housing market even though slower conditions are expected to persist until there is better economic news in the state. Full Story

“ Guru”

Since: Jan 08

Manhattan Beach

#21 Apr 3, 2009
Windward was the only one in the article that had an increase in price. It will be the windward side that rises first when you come out. As soon as the money starts getting released and starts increasing sales, prices will follow.

The "schadenfreude-doom and gloomers" will miss it again as they always do. Nothing new there. They will still be crying that everything is too expensive, and they will miss it for the umpteenth time. They never buy anyway, so their cries and rants are simply irrelevant.

When inflation shows up...watch out. In some places on the mainland, housing will bottom out through the rest of 2009-mid 2010. Hawaii will take 12-18 months after that, except where there is low volume, then one or two high sales will shoot that area up. Right now people are buying low-end to be conservative or out of need in Hawaii. The speculators are out of this market, and this will continue for awhile. Shapiro is right: it will be a sloppy market in terms of stats for the near future. People that buy at this time aren't worried about your stats.

9 Windward Coast 2 -71.4%$612,500 +9.4%
Meilani

Denver, CO

#22 Apr 3, 2009
These people who are buying the homes better bring jobs with them otherwise I see more foreclosures on the horizon...
alice

Pahoa, HI

#23 Apr 3, 2009
everything here is sky high

“ Guru”

Since: Jan 08

Manhattan Beach

#24 Apr 3, 2009
Von in Aiea wrote:
<quoted text>
Believe it or not, but he houses are starting to sell slowly in Hawaii.
In Mililani for example a few house were sold at the standard high price and can you believe the buyers paid cash?
There are business and people out there that do have money they are holding on to until just the right time? That time is getting close now. No matter what the State tells you there are good signs abounding. Maybe your not suppose to know these things until all the good deals have been taken? Once these buyers are happy and content only then will you start to see the housing statistics come out.
I am an actualist or a realist and that means I only believe what I can actually see with my own eyes.
Interesting...

“ Guru”

Since: Jan 08

Manhattan Beach

#25 Apr 3, 2009
Dman wrote:
"I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that we may be close to a bottom," said Harvey Shapiro, research economist for the Honolulu Board of Realtors.
Give me a break, who can afford to buy??? not the average family in Hawaii only the rich and out of town folks. Hawaii is in for some very tough times, if the average family CAN'T afford to buy, you will see much more people moving from this state as it is WAY overpriced and over taxed.
You want to move? Try NY...sales tax is now 10.5%. CA is at 9.75%. Come to CA...we need your taxes!
alice

Pahoa, HI

#26 Apr 3, 2009
true...sales are active also in Portlock. I love that area and got to visit it last week during break. I watched a sunset from a cliff called China Moon. Lovely!

“ Guru”

Since: Jan 08

Manhattan Beach

#27 Apr 3, 2009
Jopper wrote:
It's Still A Terrible Time To Buy! Don't do it...wait a while and save thousands!
House prices will keep falling in most places because those prices are still dangerously high compared to incomes and rents. Banks say a safe mortgage is a maximum of 3 times the buyer's yearly income. Landlords say a safe price is a maximum of 15 times the tenant's yearly rent. Yet in coastal areas, both those safety rules are still being violated. Buyers are still borrowing 6 times their income, and sellers are still asking 30 times annual rent, even after recent price declines. Renting is a cash business that reflects what people can really pay, not how much they can borrow. Salaries and rents prove that prices will keep falling for a long time. Anyone who bought a "bargain" this time last year is already sitting on a very painful loss. More on patrick.net
You have a one-sided argument here, sport, and it is dripping with schadenfruede!

What you are not acknowledging is what the first post here by Dman stated...some people are moving in with all cash. Or with at least, more than a minimum down payment. No job, no qualifications to worry about, just cash. Trying to justify all prices based on a typical salary with a minimum down payment in Hawaii is just foolish. Yet that is what your link does, and you are falling for it hook, line and sinker. They always do.
alice

Pahoa, HI

#28 Apr 3, 2009
alice wrote:
true...sales are active also in Portlock. I love that area and got to visit it last week during break. I watched a sunset from a cliff called China Moon. Lovely!
true..lovely areas will not prices go dow much

“ Guru”

Since: Jan 08

Manhattan Beach

#29 Apr 3, 2009
Call me MISTER wrote:
Harvey, Harvey, Harvey. This whole global crisis was caused by greedy, cheering realtors who even to this day, in hawaii deny that there is anything wrong with the entire scenario...that these outrageous, abnormal prices deviating from historical trends(started by subprime) are deserving of blah, blah, blah. I feel sorry for so many young people and the idiots who continue to support these prices by buying. The time is coming for a major correction and only then will true stability and quality of life return.
....and your definition of "quality of life" is represented by where you live...in Waipahu?lol

I guess when the price of a home in Kahala is equal to a the price of a home in Waipahu, then, and only then, will we have reached your definition of "true stability and quality of life" as you mention here. Keep dreaming!

“ Guru”

Since: Jan 08

Manhattan Beach

#30 Apr 3, 2009
Call Me Miss wrote:
<quoted text>
Blame Hawaii's politicians, regulators and educators. People from all over the world want to have a toehold in Hawaii. Greedy cheering realtors do as much as the law allows and enforces. Local people want to own homes like any other Americans. You'd think people who've lived in Hawaii for generations would have a better break, but no dice. I think there should be more control over how much real estate can be bought up by investors, especially those who don't live in Hawaii and never intend to. The least Hawaii could do would be to tax them up the ying yang for profiting at the expense of those who actually live on the aina. Instead, Hawaii looks the other way, takes their piece of the investor pie, and says "tsk tsk tsk" when badly educated local people are suckered into enormous loans that they couldn't afford even with five jobs.
Has Hawaii ever had much stability? Not since the late 40's and 50's, and not for everyone. The quality of life has gotten worse due to overbuilding, shabby building, and inadequate infrastructure to meet the needs of a burgeoning population. Great ideas are brought forth to meet the problems, and when they are implemented, they are quickly corrupted. How else to explain the utter failure of public schools to educate the populace? How else to explain the continuing impoverishment of Hawaiian people and lands despite the financial growth of OHA, DHHL and Kamehameha Schools? There's no great idea that can't be slowly but surely converted into a beaurocratic, money sucking nightmare in Hawaii.
....so how's Texas? Anybody get hanged today??

“ Guru”

Since: Jan 08

Manhattan Beach

#31 Apr 3, 2009
Dakar wrote:
San Diego has higher sales every month for the last 12 months but prices are down there twenty-something percent from a year ago. For a realtor that doesn't matter, as all you need are sales in order to make commissions. So I guess it depends on how you define "bottom"! Today's NY Times has an article about how middle-class people in Miami, etc., are finally able to afford homes there again and are out buying. Is that such a bad thing? Would that be a bad thing here in Hawaii?
Good point. Also, I guess if people are out there selling what people are buying, whether it is "up or down in price", that is ...what?...bad? That seems to be the line of thinking in this blog.
The "you just want to make a commission!" crowd wants to hang Realtors for showing them a home that they wanted to buy, and agreed to buy. The BUYER bought the financing from the lender. They took it. I wonder if they read the fine print.

Always,always,always buy with a FIXED RATE LOAN, folks. Then you always know your downside. If you can't afford a fixed rate loan, don't buy. It is that simple.

“ Guru”

Since: Jan 08

Manhattan Beach

#32 Apr 3, 2009
gerrrg wrote:
If that's what you call affordable, I don't think I'll ever get to move back home, until I'm just a box of ashes.
Just for kicks, why would anyone think that the housing bubble is at a bottom, when the median has barely moved downward in comparison to the top 10 housing markets (in terms of price)?
Can you compare Hawaii to Phoenix? To Bakersfield? To Miami? To Riverside? There is your answer. They were all sub-primed to death. You weren't.

Since: Mar 08

Aiea, HI

#33 Apr 3, 2009
alice wrote:
true...sales are active also in Portlock. I love that area and got to visit it last week during break. I watched a sunset from a cliff called China Moon. Lovely!
Wonder if Henry Kaiser's house is still over there? I believe it was located at the end of Portlock Road.
alice

Pahoa, HI

#34 Apr 3, 2009
I think it was torn down..I did not walk to the end of the road though.
HAHA

Honolulu, HI

#35 Apr 3, 2009
Bottom seen.....Harvey? How can when it is still going down...Check out

http://www.honoluluadvertiser.com/article/200...

You suck
GoFly88

Honolulu, HI

#36 Apr 3, 2009
Absolutely nonsense and hype; we will not see bottom for 3-9 months. Am I really paying HBR dues to pay for this guy?
Meilani

Denver, CO

#37 Apr 3, 2009
Real Estate Guru 2008 wrote:
<quoted text>
What you are not acknowledging is what the first post here by Dman stated...some people are moving in with all cash.
Some people may be moving in with all cash but MOST buyers still need to qualify for a loan. That means they need a job, etc. If lenders are still tight on lending, the economy is hitting the skids, home values still are falling, layoffs are still occurring in high numbers with the job market tightening, and unemployment numbers are still rising, I don't see how it is responsible to say that "the worst could be over for the housing market". Please explain...

“ Guru”

Since: Jan 08

Manhattan Beach

#38 Apr 3, 2009
Meilani wrote:
<quoted text>
Some people may be moving in with all cash but MOST buyers still need to qualify for a loan. That means they need a job, etc. If lenders are still tight on lending, the economy is hitting the skids, home values still are falling, layoffs are still occurring in high numbers with the job market tightening, and unemployment numbers are still rising, I don't see how it is responsible to say that "the worst could be over for the housing market". Please explain...
I can't explain for Harvy...he has to do that. But, consider this,...even if people are not moving in with ALL cash...a lot of them are putting ENOUGH cash down to qualify for a smaller mortgage. All cash buyers are rare to be sure...but there are a lot of them that put 20-50% down, then have no problems qualifying for a loan for the rest.

The problem is...some people in here tend to forget that, and then put ALL buyers into the same boat: namely, a small down payment, and a large loan that they can't possibly qualify for based upon the average salary in Oahu. A lot of buyers are smarter than that, or have other resources.

“ Guru”

Since: Jan 08

Manhattan Beach

#39 Apr 3, 2009
GoFly88 wrote:
Absolutely nonsense and hype; we will not see bottom for 3-9 months. Am I really paying HBR dues to pay for this guy?
You are a Realtor? What do you see if you are?
Meilani

Denver, CO

#40 Apr 3, 2009
Real Estate Guru 2008 wrote:
<quoted text>
I can't explain for Harvy...he has to do that. But, consider this,...even if people are not moving in with ALL cash...a lot of them are putting ENOUGH cash down to qualify for a smaller mortgage. All cash buyers are rare to be sure...but there are a lot of them that put 20-50% down, then have no problems qualifying for a loan for the rest.
The problem is...some people in here tend to forget that, and then put ALL buyers into the same boat: namely, a small down payment, and a large loan that they can't possibly qualify for based upon the average salary in Oahu. A lot of buyers are smarter than that, or have other resources.
I can see your point but still believe that even with a 50% down, the buyer will need to generate a decent income to pay the mortgage. I would think that buyers are still not eager to purchase when the Hawaiian economy is still in a decline. Seems a little risky to relocate at the moment because no one's job seems secure anymore. Maybe that is just my own simple opinion. Certainly I am no real estate expert.

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