Why Romney Will Win
Handwriting on the wall

Minneapolis, MN

#1 Nov 5, 2012
by Fred Barnes

November 5, 2012

Mitt Romney will win. The tie in the polls goes to the challenger. Here’s why:

** Enthusiasm. It matters enormously, and it’s disproportionately on the Republican side, in good measure because of an intense desire to defeat President Obama. True, enthusiasm doesn’t guarantee an edge in turnout, but it’s certainly a key indicator.“In these final days, turnout is driven by intensity,” says Republican pollster Ed Goeas. The nearly half the electorate that strongly disapproves of Obama’s performance in office “will need little else other than the opportunity to vote against President Obama to motivate them to go to their polling place.” Goeas conducts the bipartisan Battleground Poll along with Democrat Celinda Lake.

In 2008, self-identified Democrats led Republicans in turnout by seven percentage points. Gallup’s projection is that Republicans will have a 49-46 percent edge this year.“The political environment and the composition of the likely electorate strongly favor Governor Romney,” Goeas says. The Battleground Poll’s “vote election model” projects Romney with 51 percent.

** Ground game. The Obama get-out-the-vote drive (GOTV) is not quite the powerful juggernaut it was in 2008 and the Republican effort is far better than four years ago. The Republican National Committee isn’t alone this time. Americans for Prosperity and a coalition of a dozen conservative groups—from the National Rifle Association to the Republican Jewish Coalition—have put together a massive GOTV effort focused on swing voters in key states. They’ve averaged 1.8 million phone calls per day in recent days.

Early voting numbers are further evidence of ground game parity. Democrats have a slight edge, but their numbers are down significantly from 2008. Far more Republicans have voted early this year than in 2008.

** Undecideds. Undecided voters are thought to vote disproportionately for the challenger over a sitting president. In truth, there’s no empirical evidence for this widely acknowledged tendency. But to the extent it exists, it helps Romney. Goeas, for one, figures most still undecided voters simply won’t vote.

** Indicators. Many point to a Romney win. He does well among “high-propensity-voting” blocs such as, in the Battleground Poll, seniors (54 percent), married voters (56 percent), weekly church attendees (59 percent), white evangelicals (79 percent), and gun owner householders (60 percent). He also leads among key demographic groups such as suburban voters (54 percent), Catholics (53 percent), and middle class voters (52 percent).

Obama has large leads among groups such as Hispanics with a lower propensity to vote.“If the president’s campaign is not able to replicate his 2008 electorate (which is looking increasingly unlikely), the president loses,” Goeas says.

** Issues. The most important ones favor Romney: the economy, the deficit, and the debt. Independents, the demographic group most sensitive to these issues, went for Obama by eight percentage points in 2008. Now they’re tilting to Romney by roughly the same percentage.

Conclusion: Romney will be elected the 45th president of the United States.
Amused Slew

Kent, WA

#3 Nov 5, 2012
A wingnut BLOG ?? Wow... let's lower the journalistic standards to u-tube next !!!

Romney the best man wins

Saint Paul, MN

#4 Nov 5, 2012
Handwriting on the wall wrote:
by Fred Barnes
November 5, 2012
Mitt Romney will win. The tie in the polls goes to the challenger. Here’s why:
** Enthusiasm. It matters enormously, and it’s disproportionately on the Republican side, in good measure because of an intense desire to defeat President Obama. True, enthusiasm doesn’t guarantee an edge in turnout, but it’s certainly a key indicator.“In these final days, turnout is driven by intensity,” says Republican pollster Ed Goeas. The nearly half the electorate that strongly disapproves of Obama’s performance in office “will need little else other than the opportunity to vote against President Obama to motivate them to go to their polling place.” Goeas conducts the bipartisan Battleground Poll along with Democrat Celinda Lake.
In 2008, self-identified Democrats led Republicans in turnout by seven percentage points. Gallup’s projection is that Republicans will have a 49-46 percent edge this year.“The political environment and the composition of the likely electorate strongly favor Governor Romney,” Goeas says. The Battleground Poll’s “vote election model” projects Romney with 51 percent.
** Ground game. The Obama get-out-the-vote drive (GOTV) is not quite the powerful juggernaut it was in 2008 and the Republican effort is far better than four years ago. The Republican National Committee isn’t alone this time. Americans for Prosperity and a coalition of a dozen conservative groups—from the National Rifle Association to the Republican Jewish Coalition—have put together a massive GOTV effort focused on swing voters in key states. They’ve averaged 1.8 million phone calls per day in recent days.
Early voting numbers are further evidence of ground game parity. Democrats have a slight edge, but their numbers are down significantly from 2008. Far more Republicans have voted early this year than in 2008.
** Undecideds. Undecided voters are thought to vote disproportionately for the challenger over a sitting president. In truth, there’s no empirical evidence for this widely acknowledged tendency. But to the extent it exists, it helps Romney. Goeas, for one, figures most still undecided voters simply won’t vote.
** Indicators. Many point to a Romney win. He does well among “high-propensity-voting” blocs such as, in the Battleground Poll, seniors (54 percent), married voters (56 percent), weekly church attendees (59 percent), white evangelicals (79 percent), and gun owner householders (60 percent). He also leads among key demographic groups such as suburban voters (54 percent), Catholics (53 percent), and middle class voters (52 percent).
Obama has large leads among groups such as Hispanics with a lower propensity to vote.“If the president’s campaign is not able to replicate his 2008 electorate (which is looking increasingly unlikely), the president loses,” Goeas says.
** Issues. The most important ones favor Romney: the economy, the deficit, and the debt. Independents, the demographic group most sensitive to these issues, went for Obama by eight percentage points in 2008. Now they’re tilting to Romney by roughly the same percentage.
Conclusion: Romney will be elected the 45th president of the United States.
Agree!
Romney the best man wins

Saint Paul, MN

#5 Nov 5, 2012
Romney will get more votes..
Amused Slew

Kent, WA

#6 Nov 5, 2012
Well that's nice... Stupid, but nice... You agree with a blog and that is important to a moron.
Romney the best man wins

Saint Paul, MN

#7 Nov 5, 2012
Romney will get more votes tomorrow.
DSM Local

Ankeny, IA

#9 Nov 5, 2012
Simple plenty less democrats will turn out and many have turned to the Republican party, furthermore the Tea Party has Rejuvenated the core base of the GOP and brought aboard the youthful conservatives to actually vote, It is beyond a doubt that Romney will win this Election
Amused redeemer

Kent, WA

#10 Nov 5, 2012
LMAOROTFU~! Teabaggers ?? LMAOROTFU~! If that's your plan, I can't help you man.... Dip Mitt screwed the pooch, with the 47% comment and Sandy sealed the deal...
Romney the best man wins

Saint Paul, MN

#11 Nov 5, 2012
Romney for a change.

He hasn't had a turn as president and needs one.
Romney needs turn as pres

Saint Paul, MN

#14 Nov 6, 2012
Romney will correct the path of the USA.
Crowing

Baldwin Park, CA

#16 Nov 7, 2012
Lol indeed, keep this dumb thread bumped
Romney the best man wins

Minneapolis, MN

#17 Nov 8, 2012
Romney the best man wins wrote:
Romney will get more votes tomorrow.
I really like this thread.

ROFLMAO!!!
Amused Slew

Kent, WA

#18 Nov 8, 2012
"The billionaire donors I hear are livid. There is some holy hell to pay. Karl Rove has a lot of explaining to do ... I don't know how you tell your donors that we spent $390 million and got nothing."-- anonymous Rethuglican operative, as quoted in the Huffington Post.

Oooo, we're loving it. The prospect of Karl "Turdblossom" Rove and other right wing bag men being called to account for their MASSIVE failure is a truly wonderful byproduct of Tuesday's election.
Crowing

Baldwin Park, CA

#20 Nov 8, 2012
Conservatives lost and STILL dont get it, blaming the loss on romney being "too moderate" LOL. I'm looking forward to another dem win in 2016.
1776 Defender

Minneapolis, MN

#21 Nov 10, 2012
Handwriting on the wall wrote:
by Fred Barnes
November 5, 2012
Mitt Romney will win. The tie in the polls goes to the challenger. Here’s why:
** Enthusiasm. It matters enormously, and it’s disproportionately on the Republican side, in good measure because of an intense desire to defeat President Obama. True, enthusiasm doesn’t guarantee an edge in turnout, but it’s certainly a key indicator.“In these final days, turnout is driven by intensity,” says Republican pollster Ed Goeas. The nearly half the electorate that strongly disapproves of Obama’s performance in office “will need little else other than the opportunity to vote against President Obama to motivate them to go to their polling place.” Goeas conducts the bipartisan Battleground Poll along with Democrat Celinda Lake.
In 2008, self-identified Democrats led Republicans in turnout by seven percentage points. Gallup’s projection is that Republicans will have a 49-46 percent edge this year.“The political environment and the composition of the likely electorate strongly favor Governor Romney,” Goeas says. The Battleground Poll’s “vote election model” projects Romney with 51 percent.
** Ground game. The Obama get-out-the-vote drive (GOTV) is not quite the powerful juggernaut it was in 2008 and the Republican effort is far better than four years ago. The Republican National Committee isn’t alone this time. Americans for Prosperity and a coalition of a dozen conservative groups—from the National Rifle Association to the Republican Jewish Coalition—have put together a massive GOTV effort focused on swing voters in key states. They’ve averaged 1.8 million phone calls per day in recent days.
Early voting numbers are further evidence of ground game parity. Democrats have a slight edge, but their numbers are down significantly from 2008. Far more Republicans have voted early this year than in 2008.
** Undecideds. Undecided voters are thought to vote disproportionately for the challenger over a sitting president. In truth, there’s no empirical evidence for this widely acknowledged tendency. But to the extent it exists, it helps Romney. Goeas, for one, figures most still undecided voters simply won’t vote.
** Indicators. Many point to a Romney win. He does well among “high-propensity-voting” blocs such as, in the Battleground Poll, seniors (54 percent), married voters (56 percent), weekly church attendees (59 percent), white evangelicals (79 percent), and gun owner householders (60 percent). He also leads among key demographic groups such as suburban voters (54 percent), Catholics (53 percent), and middle class voters (52 percent).
Obama has large leads among groups such as Hispanics with a lower propensity to vote.“If the president’s campaign is not able to replicate his 2008 electorate (which is looking increasingly unlikely), the president loses,” Goeas says.
** Issues. The most important ones favor Romney: the economy, the deficit, and the debt. Independents, the demographic group most sensitive to these issues, went for Obama by eight percentage points in 2008. Now they’re tilting to Romney by roughly the same percentage.
Conclusion: Romney will be elected the 45th president of the United States.
I love this thread!
Christingle Matthews

Saint Paul, MN

#22 Feb 20, 2013
blah blah blah Romney 56% Obama 44%

Blah blah blah November is the only poll that counts

Blah blah blah Amerika

Blah blah blah Newt Gingrich blowup sex doll

Blah blah blah skewed polls

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