Part 2 and Last
With so much horror going on in civilian territories over six million people have been displaced. About 4.5 million are displaced internally and 1.5 million externally. There are one million refugees in Lebanon placing a huge burden on the system, including schools. With sectarian violence returning to Lebanon the million refugees are now at a greater risk. Since the bombings in Tripoli there have been large protests calling for the expulsion of the refugees and security is quickly becoming an issue.
If Russia sends the S-300 missiles then there is a good chance that Israel will make another strike. Another strike by Israel will give the resistance an excuse that it is hoping for, although I am not sure if they want it at this exact point in time. Of course any retaliation could give Israel the excuse it is looking for to carry out strategic strikes against Hezbollah as well. If Israel wanted to strike Hezbollah now would be the time to do it forcing Hezbollah to fight two wars on two borders. Israel has been doing state wide drills practicing for attacks that would hail down conventional and unconventional missiles. These drills were practiced during work and school hours as well as during evening hours when families would be at home. Hezbollah and Syria would like to at least gain the Golan Heights back from Israeli occupation.
Now if war breaks out with Hezbollah and Syria against Israel it would be a good time for Hamas in Gaza to make their own moves. This would force Israel to fight a war on three fronts. If chaos like this scenario becomes a reality I would suspect it would be a good time for many anti-Israel groups to stage attacks and bring the goliath down and capture Jerusalem, the third holiest site of all Islam. Actually, the possibility of capturing all of Jerusalem could stop the sectarian war in order to ban together against a common enemy actually uniting Muslims.
Today the United Nations Human Rights Commission passed a resolution against the violence in Syria. The 47 members passed the resolution 36-1 with eight abstentions and two absent. Guess who voted against the resolution? Venezuela. Russia called the resolution “one-sided” and, in my opinion, they are correct. The resolution banned the use of missiles and heavy weapons by the Syrian government and foreign fighters that are assisting the Syrian government. The United Nations pointed out that powerful states need to use their influence to put an end to the civil war instead of fanning the flames causing the situation to “spiral out of control” and spread through the region. It is interesting to note that the United Nations referred to the opposition as a belligerence. I am unaware of the international community raising the status of the opposition to belligerent; however, if they did then a whole slew of international laws come into play as both sides must conform to the rules of war or face consequences. Many foreign fighters on both sides can create a big international criminal mess that would be interesting to watch.