Messianic Jews say they are persecuted in Israel

Full story: Newsday

Safety pins and screws are still lodged in 15-year-old Ami Ortiz's body three months after he opened a booby-trapped gift basket sent to his family.
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39,201 - 39,220 of 68,835 Comments Last updated 1 hr ago
former res

Newtown Square, PA

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#42975
Nov 7, 2012
 
Frijoles wrote:
The most interesting aspect of the election, IMO, is the work of Nate Silver.
There have been a few articles out already on whether he is a "genius" or not, and they are entertaining to read because most of them still dont understand what he did - which was to agregate the multiple polls in each state, and then use a gambling/sports computer model to add confidence statistics that projected the accuracy/error of the aggregated data.
SO while many of the pundits were predicting mythical surges based on intuitions, he was describing the accuracy of all the polling data. By saying Obama had a 90% chance of winning, he was saying he had 90% confidence that the polls putting Obama ahead were accurate.
yeah I read the one questioning his brilliance and saying all he did was look at the polls.

He never claimed to do anyomore than that and that was the point.

He looked at them, he weighted them, and he made mathematical predictions.

Predictions which have proved highly accurate. In at lest two elections that I know of.

And that's good enough for me.
former res

Newtown Square, PA

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#42976
Nov 7, 2012
 
Frijoles wrote:
<quoted text>
Yes, that was a graceful article.
It must be frustrating to both Repubs and Democrats alike- to put so much effort and time into Florida, and at the end of the day the state isnt even electorally relevant any more.
I watched the Romney speech. He looked noticably relieved that it was all over.
I'd stiil like to see Obama bag FL - not to spike the ball.

But 29 electoral votes - I want them!

:)
Frijoles

Cromwell, CT

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#42977
Nov 7, 2012
 
former res wrote:
<quoted text>
yeah I read the one questioning his brilliance and saying all he did was look at the polls.
He never claimed to do anyomore than that and that was the point.
He looked at them, he weighted them, and he made mathematical predictions.
Predictions which have proved highly accurate. In at lest two elections that I know of.
And that's good enough for me.
The thing is, if Romney won, Nate still would of been correct. He was not making predictions, he was making confidences. He was saying that in 10% of election trial runs, Romney would win. The fact that 90% was in Obama and not 100% was because he was modeling the probability that the polls were in error.

Sophisticated but simple.

The only way to proof Nate - would be to have those trial runs and see what the percentages of wins/looses were. Just saying Obama won as he "predicted" is meaningless. And Nate himself explained that a few times.

Its the same as saying I am tossing a coin and overall 50% of the times it will be heads. This does not preclude three tails happening in a row, nor would that invalidate.

Ah, stats!

The real lesson from all of this was not Nate, but that the polls actually correlated with polling behavior. There were serious questions about that ("likely voters", lying voters etc etc) mainly from the right.
Frijoles

Cromwell, CT

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#42978
Nov 7, 2012
 
former res wrote:
<quoted text>
I'd stiil like to see Obama bag FL - not to spike the ball.
But 29 electoral votes - I want them!
:)
I dont care as much. Its a hollow victory if it is only 50.1% to 49.9%

The real question is whether this loss will cause the repubs double down on their ideology or reform.
Frijoles

Cromwell, CT

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#42979
Nov 7, 2012
 
former res wrote:
<quoted text>
That must me be the $100 million figure I heard - both added together.
Her is supposedly worth around a billion, so they still have even more $ than Romney.
/
Who would ever think that there is more money in wrestling than in corporate raiding? Ode to the working class...

BTW its kind of shocking that the parties up to now have not employed statisticians who know how to run models. That will change. I should of stuck with my stat courses!(I fled after two semesters).
former res

Newtown Square, PA

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#42980
Nov 7, 2012
 
Frijoles wrote:
<quoted text>
The thing is, if Romney won, Nate still would of been correct. He was not making predictions, he was making confidences. He was saying that in 10% of election trial runs, Romney would win. The fact that 90% was in Obama and not 100% was because he was modeling the probability that the polls were in error.
Sophisticated but simple.
The only way to proof Nate - would be to have those trial runs and see what the percentages of wins/looses were. Just saying Obama won as he "predicted" is meaningless. And Nate himself explained that a few times.
Its the same as saying I am tossing a coin and overall 50% of the times it will be heads. This does not preclude three tails happening in a row, nor would that invalidate.
Ah, stats!
The real lesson from all of this was not Nate, but that the polls actually correlated with polling behavior. There were serious questions about that ("likely voters", lying voters etc etc) mainly from the right.
yeah right, I said it wrong but i get it. He didn't predict per so but instead gave the statistical probablity of an obama win

It's the same way weather forecasters say 50% of rain. 50% of the time, given the same conditions, it tends to rain. Or it does, has rained.

And it's true,he would have been right either way with the overall result but not state by state. Which from what I've read and heard, he nailed 100%.
former res

Newtown Square, PA

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#42981
Nov 7, 2012
 
Frijoles wrote:
<quoted text>
I dont care as much. Its a hollow victory if it is only 50.1% to 49.9%
The real question is whether this loss will cause the repubs double down on their ideology or reform.
It's hollow anyway since it doesn't count..

But a win is a win. And 50.1% would have done the trick in 2000.

Both rape talkers lost but Bachmann won. 2 out of three ain't bad.

Did you see the list of Tump tweets? Class act.

http://www.salon.com/2012/11/07/donald_trump_...

And this:

It took Brian Williams just ten seconds to tear Donald Trump apart during Tuesday night's coverage of the election.

Trump has become a laughingstock for his non-stop harassment of President Obama. The real estate mogul often takes to Twitter to air his birther views, among other opinions, and he was very unhappy on election night.

A seemingly exasperated Williams briefly mentioned Trump's tweets on Tuesday.

“Donald Trump, who has driven well past the last exit to relevance and peered into something closer to irresponsible here, is tweeting tonight,” the NBC newsman said.

He referred to some of Trump's tweets, before saying, "That happened," and moving on to more important news.
former res

Newtown Square, PA

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#42982
Nov 7, 2012
 
Well, once again, to the victor go the spoils. CNN Fortune with the details:


Sales of [Silver's new] book, "The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—but Some Don't" shot up 800% on Amazon.com over the last 24 hours. It is now the second best selling book on the site, behind only popular children's book, "The Third Wheel, Diary of a Wimpy Kid Book 7."

“No Allah: know peace”

Since: Jun 07

A sacred grove in Tujunga, CA

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#42983
Nov 7, 2012
 
Voluntarist wrote:
<quoted text>
Once again a lawyer that can't point to any facts.
From the Hobbs wiki;
the view that all legitimate
political power must be "representative" and based on the
consent of the people;
I don't consent.
Owning an IRS lawyer;
part one
http://m.youtube.com/watch...
part 2
http://m.youtube.com/watch...
You continue to live there, ergo you consent.

“No Allah: know peace”

Since: Jun 07

A sacred grove in Tujunga, CA

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#42984
Nov 7, 2012
 
TJ Monk wrote:
<quoted text>
There is no such thing as a Messianic Jew. The Law of Moses doesn't count. Jesus instituted the NEW Covanant, to love. Cornilious was the first Gentile to join the 1st century christians.
Maybe you should try actually reading a Bible someday. One of the things that is repeated over and over, several dozen times, is that the Laws of Moses are to stand FOR EVER without any change. When Jesus made the comment to love one's neighbor, he was merely repeating one of those Laws. Which is only to be expected from a Jewish revivalist preacher like Jesus.

“No Allah: know peace”

Since: Jun 07

A sacred grove in Tujunga, CA

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#42985
Nov 7, 2012
 
Voluntarist wrote:
<quoted text>
Has nothing to do with anything some of those same people believe in killing a fetus and eugenics.
Men should be judged by the quality of their souls not the fiat money in their bank accounts.
You can't kill what is not yet alive. Fetuses don't have souls.
SamBee

Clermont, FL

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#42986
Nov 7, 2012
 
Liam R wrote:
<quoted text>
You can't kill what is not yet alive. Fetuses don't have souls.
Would you mind, proving that according to scripture?
Frijoles

New Haven, CT

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#42987
Nov 7, 2012
 
former res wrote:
<quoted text>
It's hollow anyway since it doesn't count..
But a win is a win. And 50.1% would have done the trick in 2000.
Both rape talkers lost but Bachmann won. 2 out of three ain't bad.
Did you see the list of Tump tweets? Class act.
http://www.salon.com/2012/11/07/donald_trump_...
And this:
It took Brian Williams just ten seconds to tear Donald Trump apart during Tuesday night's coverage of the election.
Trump has become a laughingstock for his non-stop harassment of President Obama. The real estate mogul often takes to Twitter to air his birther views, among other opinions, and he was very unhappy on election night.
A seemingly exasperated Williams briefly mentioned Trump's tweets on Tuesday.
“Donald Trump, who has driven well past the last exit to relevance and peered into something closer to irresponsible here, is tweeting tonight,” the NBC newsman said.
He referred to some of Trump's tweets, before saying, "That happened," and moving on to more important news.
I wonder WHEN the moment exactly was, and WHY it was, that catapulted Mr litle d*ck over the edge from reasonable sanity to unreasonable insanity. Its been going on a few years now.
Frijoles

New Haven, CT

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#42988
Nov 7, 2012
 
former res wrote:
<quoted text>
Both rape talkers lost but Bachmann won. 2 out of three ain't bad.
Oh, the loosers dont fade away. They get picked up by that fair and balanced network as commentators.

Slate had a great article today about the 5 stages of Fox news grief. http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2012/1...
Frijoles

New Haven, CT

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#42989
Nov 7, 2012
 
SamBee wrote:
<quoted text>
Would you mind, proving that according to scripture?
Proof and scripture have as much in common as you and our Israelite religion.
Frijoles

New Haven, CT

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#42990
Nov 7, 2012
 
http://blog.ctnews.com/politics/2012/11/07/si...


Six key takeaways from Tuesday’s election results

1. There truly is a demographic tidal wave sweeping over the nation, and Republicans ignore it at their own peril.
2. The polls were right.
3. There is a myth of the undecided voter.
4. Independent voters are no longer the key “swing” group.
5. Suburbs can’t be analyzed as a single unit.
6. We have to rethink the way we contemplate the role of money in politics.

“No Allah: know peace”

Since: Jun 07

A sacred grove in Tujunga, CA

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#42991
Nov 7, 2012
 
rabbee yehoshooah adam wrote:
<quoted text>
rabbee: can america survive, four more years as a sinfull nation? with G-D getting angrier, every moment at us. with two or more anti-D candidates, of little or less than no consequence.
so i do not expect any different ending, here in TheTorah. than all the other times, that it ended exactly the same way. because of all the same mental errors as before.
America is not Israel. Your God doesn't get to vote here. He'd have to renounce His Israeli citizenship and move, first...

“No Allah: know peace”

Since: Jun 07

A sacred grove in Tujunga, CA

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#42992
Nov 7, 2012
 
SamBee wrote:
<quoted text>
Would you mind, proving that according to scripture?
Easy. Exodus 21:22. If the woman is harmed, then its an eye for an eye, death for a death. If the fetus is harmed, then its a fine paid to the husband for damaging his property. Or you can look at Genesis, where Adam is just a lump of clay until the God of the Bible blows that first breath of life (AND a soul!) into his nostrils. Before that, Adam was not a living soul.

Genesis 2:7 And the LORD God formed man of the dust of the ground, and breathed into his nostrils the breath of life; and man became a living soul.

Exodus 21:22 If men strive, and hurt a woman with child, so that her fruit depart from her, and yet no mischief follow: he shall be surely punished, according as the woman's husband will lay upon him; and he shall pay as the judges determine.
21:23 And if any mischief follow, then thou shalt give life for life,
21:24 Eye for eye, tooth for tooth, hand for hand, foot for foot,
21:25 Burning for burning, wound for wound, stripe for stripe.
Frijoles

New Haven, CT

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#42993
Nov 7, 2012
 
former res wrote:
<quoted text>
yeah I read the one questioning his brilliance and saying all he did was look at the polls.
He never claimed to do anyomore than that and that was the point.
He looked at them, he weighted them, and he made mathematical predictions.
Predictions which have proved highly accurate. In at lest two elections that I know of.
And that's good enough for me.
Check this one out - Karl Rove arguing with Fox news anchors and later their statiticians that the Ohio projections may be false - its funny as sht
rabbee yehoshooah adam

Denver, CO

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#42994
Nov 7, 2012
 
Liam R wrote:
<quoted text>
America is not Israel. Your God doesn't get to vote here. He'd have to renounce His Israeli citizenship and move, first...
rabbee: do you really think, it makes any difference what nation you reside in? do you really think it makes any difference, whether you call yourself a jew, christian, muslem or pagan? then you are, only fooling yourself.

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